The new COVID thread

[chancellor]

You keep bringing this up, and you keep drawing an incorrect conclusion. The numbers show that Republicans and Trump voters are far more vaccine hesitant than Democrats. The fact that some groups that lean Democratic are also more vaccine hesitant does not prove the point that you keep claiming it proves.

And, naturally, I disagree. Here's the point I differed with Teenwolf on:

That's it. It's more about a fear of change than anything else, and Conservative mindset fearing change forces them to dig in instead of confronting reality.

Yet, voter preference relative to age is inversely proportional to vaccine rate. The 18-29 age group is only 46% fully vaccinated, but yet, based on 2018 figures by Pew, are 27% more Dem/liberal than GOP/conservative (59-32). The 50-64 age group is 71.4% vaccinated, and leans slightly GOP/conservative. I'll grant I may be allowing personal belief to color my view on fear of change - I'm more fearful of change now than when I was in my early 20s, by a wide margin. Perhaps the age 18-29 age group is more fearful of change than the 50-64 age group, overall. But there's clearly a much more Conservative mindset politically among the age 50-64 group than the age 18-29 group, and yet the age group that's roughly 30% more Dem/liberal is more than 25% less vaccinated.

So, yeah, making the claim that a vastly greater Dem/liberal age group is vastly less vaccinated is due to fear of change and a Conservative mindset isn't something that I'm going to agree with. Or, making the claim that the age group that's least vaccinated and most liberal (by far) is somehow significantly influenced by Tucker Carlson or OAN is pretty, um, interesting.

[Kevin Seitzer]

While this is a popular media-driven illusion, the data driven facts sure don't support the point, overall. Sure, there's a fair number of loudmouths on the right that oppose vaccines and mask mandates. But overall? The oldest age groups - 65+ are both more conservative than the norm AND about 84% vaccinated. 50-64 is over 70% vaccinated. Young adults - who lean more liberal than the norm - are much less vaccinated. The age 25-39 age group is only about 54% vaccinated, age 18-24 notably less.

The African-American population, overwhelmingly Democratic voters, have the lowest vaccination rate by racial demographic. And it's not really close.

Data source, in case you're wondering, is the CDC itself: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...raphics-trends

You keep bringing this up, and you keep drawing an incorrect conclusion. The numbers show that Republicans and Trump voters are far more vaccine hesitant than Democrats. The fact that some groups that lean Democratic are also more vaccine hesitant does not prove the point that you keep claiming it proves. It's highly likely that among each of those Democratic-leaning groups, the Republicans and Trump voters in that group are far more vaccine hesitant than the Democratic voters. Studies that have controlled for all those factors find that being Trump voter is the single most statistically significant indicator of vaccine hesitancy, and that the factors you mention don't actually come into play in a statistically meaningful way. I gave the link to that study last time you brought this up.

[chancellor]

You were doing fine up until here. It is absurd to think that governors of deep red states give a damn about what could appeal to African Americans. The same governors who are doing their best to get voter restriction laws passed that would impact them the most, right?

That's pure foolishness. Every politician of every stripe cares about what appeals to every voter group in their state or district, and has polling to carve out just about any demographic you can think about on just about every major topic that is out there. Every politician of every stripe yearns for the opportunity to find topics that will keep their base happy while potentially carving out votes from demographics that typically oppose them.

So, yes, absolutely, every red state governor gives a damn about what appeals to African Americans.

[umjewman]

Umjewman is likely correct

This is pretty much a good default position for anyone to have.

[chancellor]

Love ya, Chance, but you are really cherry picking when you claim numbers don't lie here. Revo is right, there are three anti-vaxxer camps, and you are right, that two of those camps, AAs and young people skew left. However, there is another number you are ignoring here. All of the same polling data very clearly and significantly indicates that Dems are far more likely to be vaccinated and get vaccinated than Repubs. It is not close.

Oh, I pretty much agree with revo on the three groups. Thought I'd made that clear by saying "Absolutely, there's a segment of the right-wing that opposes the COVID vaccines and detests mask mandates and they're using all the Alinsky tools they've learned the past twenty years or so to fight the Biden administration." Umjewman is likely correct that many of the 50+ age group that are not vaccinated will be strongly conservative. It's a significant part of that population.

However, where I differ is that, somehow, only right-wingers are the sole anti-vaxxers out there. The age demographics just don't work. As age goes up, vaccination rate clearly goes up, and at 65+, very significantly. Younger adults strongly lean liberal.

And of course there's politics in play. Did you not read that I said "If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?" I underlined it this time for emphasis.

[umjewman]

Simple. Bene can vent all he wants. Absolutely, there's a segment of the right-wing that opposes the COVID vaccines and detests mask mandates and they're using all the Alinsky tools they've learned the past twenty years or so to fight the Biden administration. But the numbers don't lie. Older adults vote much more conservative than younger adults, yet are vaccinated in far higher numbers. African Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic, yet are by far the lowest vaccinated racial group. And that's CDC data.

We can speculate on the reasons all we want. Media personalities and stations that are right-of-center have a notably older skew to their viewers. Media that is left-of-center has a mostly younger skew to their viewers, except for CNN, which has bled so many viewers that it's tough to tell what's left. Social media has taken an aggressive anti anti-vax stance, with Facebook and Twitter in particular censoring anti-vax postings. Again, younger adults get more of their news from social media than older adults.

So, unless, little white guys like Tucker Carlson suddenly have Darth Sidious-like mind control powers, the odds of the right-of-center media significantly influencing the most liberal age and racial demographics - who, by the way, watch them the least - is exceedingly slim to me. I mean, c'mon, seriously, do you think Tucker Carlson is influencing Nikki Minaj?

So, I'll throw my highly cynical POV out there. If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?

I'll just say that answer is as obvious as a poke in the arm.

You can drill down deeper into these numbers though. Yes, older people are getting more vaccinated and yes older people tend to skew more conservative by nature. Older people are also more likely to get seriously ill and die from Covid, of course, so logic would dictate that they would be the first to get it (and indeed they were prioritized). But the portion of older people who are not getting vaccinated strongly skews conservative. From what I saw, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Idaho, Missouri, West Virginia, and Wyoming are the states where 20% or more of those 65 and older are not vaccinated. All of those states went for Trump in the 2020 election....even Georgia which actually went for Trump but was STOLEN BY DOMINION BASED ON A FORESNIC AUDIT BY A PILLOW SALESMAN. Reasonably certain what channel those TVs are tuned to in those states.

[Ken]

There are approximately 95 million unvaccinated white people in the US spreading the virus and filling up hospitals.
There are approximately 25 million unvaccinated black people in the US spreading the virus and filling up hospitals.

Using % of race vaccinated to somehow blame this problem on black people feels really, really gross. That's an embarrassing takeaway to try to bend this problem into. Although it feels typical sadly.

Additionally, conflating vaccination rate with anti-vaxx "push" requires some serious mental gymnatics. There's a huge difference between a "Proud Boy" shouting through a megaphone about his anti-vaxx stance and a minority who fears for his safety and distrusts a govermnent that used them as lab rats. Mixing those two feels really lazy and disingenuous.

[Sour Masher]

You were doing fine up until here. It is absurd to think that governors of deep red states give a damn about what could appeal to African Americans. The same governors who are doing their best to get voter restriction laws passed that would impact them the most, right?

It's pretty clear what's happening with these groups. African American vaccination rates are down because of distrust of the government due to historical atrocities. Young people think they are invincible so they don't think they need it. The rest, well, that falls on all the disinformation coming 99% from the right. And I don't even think you can keep blaming Trump any more on this, as he's come out saying, sheepishly maybe, to get the vaccine (and getting booed loudly for it). Maybe he started it or at least didn't do enough to promote them in the early stages but it's something that even he wouldn't be able to convince his followers to do.

Yeah, this sums it up. Two of the groups who are vaccine hesitant are so for the non-political reasons as you make clear here. One is clearly anti-vax because of politics. To deny that COVID vaccination is very clearly politically divided takes some serious denial of the facts.

[Sour Masher]

Simple. Bene can vent all he wants. Absolutely, there's a segment of the right-wing that opposes the COVID vaccines and detests mask mandates and they're using all the Alinsky tools they've learned the past twenty years or so to fight the Biden administration. But the numbers don't lie. Older adults vote much more conservative than younger adults, yet are vaccinated in far higher numbers. African Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic, yet are by far the lowest vaccinated racial group. And that's CDC data.

We can speculate on the reasons all we want. Media personalities and stations that are right-of-center have a notably older skew to their viewers. Media that is left-of-center has a mostly younger skew to their viewers, except for CNN, which has bled so many viewers that it's tough to tell what's left. Social media has taken an aggressive anti anti-vax stance, with Facebook and Twitter in particular censoring anti-vax postings. Again, younger adults get more of their news from social media than older adults.

So, unless, little white guys like Tucker Carlson suddenly have Darth Sidious-like mind control powers, the odds of the right-of-center media significantly influencing the most liberal age and racial demographics - who, by the way, watch them the least - is exceedingly slim to me. I mean, c'mon, seriously, do you think Tucker Carlson is influencing Nikki Minaj?

So, I'll throw my highly cynical POV out there. If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?

I'll just say that answer is as obvious as a poke in the arm.

Love ya, Chance, but you are really cherry picking when you claim numbers don't lie here. Revo is right, there are three anti-vaxxer camps, and you are right, that two of those camps, AAs and young people skew left. However, there is another number you are ignoring here. All of the same polling data very clearly and significantly indicates that Dems are far more likely to be vaccinated and get vaccinated than Repubs. It is not close.

And the idea that all these Republican politicians are enacting anti-mask policies and spouting anti-vax rhetoric to pander to AAs and the young is as silly as speculating that All Democratic politicians are pro-vaccination and pro-mask to court the right. It makes no sense. It is as obvious as can be that on this issue, one side is being responsible, pushing the science, despite key segments of their base (young people and AAs) being vaccinate hesitant and mask averse, and that is the left. And the other side is pushing against vaccination and masks, spreading FUD that is certainly killing people, and that is the right. Even if you don't believe any of the polling that very clearly shows Republicans are less vaccinated than Democrats, you can look at the politicians elected by those two groups, and you cannot deny the politics in play. Unless you think all of the Dems are altruistic saints that put the safety and well-being of the people above politics, they are clearly pandering to their voters, and the same is true on the right.

[ironfist]

So, I'll throw my highly cynical POV out there. If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?

I'll just say that answer is as obvious as a poke in the arm.

You were doing fine up until here. It is absurd to think that governors of deep red states give a damn about what could appeal to African Americans. The same governors who are doing their best to get voter restriction laws passed that would impact them the most, right?

It's pretty clear what's happening with these groups. African American vaccination rates are down because of distrust of the government due to historical atrocities. Young people think they are invincible so they don't think they need it. The rest, well, that falls on all the disinformation coming 99% from the right. And I don't even think you can keep blaming Trump any more on this, as he's come out saying, sheepishly maybe, to get the vaccine (and getting booed loudly for it). Maybe he started it or at least didn't do enough to promote them in the early stages but it's something that even he wouldn't be able to convince his followers to do.

[chancellor]

I would love to hear a response from Chance because it does appear to me that the anti vax/anti mask push is all coming from the republican/right wing. Although the behavior of some democrats doesn't always help.

Simple. Bene can vent all he wants. Absolutely, there's a segment of the right-wing that opposes the COVID vaccines and detests mask mandates and they're using all the Alinsky tools they've learned the past twenty years or so to fight the Biden administration. But the numbers don't lie. Older adults vote much more conservative than younger adults, yet are vaccinated in far higher numbers. African Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic, yet are by far the lowest vaccinated racial group. And that's CDC data.

We can speculate on the reasons all we want. Media personalities and stations that are right-of-center have a notably older skew to their viewers. Media that is left-of-center has a mostly younger skew to their viewers, except for CNN, which has bled so many viewers that it's tough to tell what's left. Social media has taken an aggressive anti anti-vax stance, with Facebook and Twitter in particular censoring anti-vax postings. Again, younger adults get more of their news from social media than older adults.

So, unless, little white guys like Tucker Carlson suddenly have Darth Sidious-like mind control powers, the odds of the right-of-center media significantly influencing the most liberal age and racial demographics - who, by the way, watch them the least - is exceedingly slim to me. I mean, c'mon, seriously, do you think Tucker Carlson is influencing Nikki Minaj?

So, I'll throw my highly cynical POV out there. If I were the governor of a deep red state with a significant African American population, but I've had little success getting votes from that population, what position could I take that both a decent to high number of my base likes AND would appeal to the African American population?

I'll just say that answer is as obvious as a poke in the arm.

[revo]

It's true that there are three 'anti vaxxer' camps -- right wingers, African-Americans & young adults.

But it's also true that only one of those camps have actively campaigned against it and used all means necessary to discredit it and influence others for political reasons, all because of ONE CLOWN. If that clown had embraced the vaccine that he supposedly launched and tries to take all the credit for, we likely would not be in this predicament to this extent today.

I read an interesting take on it in an article last week, that right wingers are not taking the vaccine because it's now being pushed by Dems. What stupidity, and this is why many don't feel any empathy for those right wing anti-vaxxers who die from covid.

[The Feral Slasher]

Republican lawmakers, mouthpieces, media personalities, propagandists (from Fox to OAN to Newsmax and on and on) are to blame. Chancellor is fucking high. It's obviously a left (get the damn shot) versus right (stick a UV light up your ass while chugging bleach and consuming horse dewormer) issue. In fact, vaccination rates are a better predictor of 2020 voting patterns now than racial demographics, or pretty much any other demographic, and even a better predictor than 2000 voting patterns. Deep red states have the lowest vaccination rates and on and on and on. I mean, the partisan nature of vaccination is pretty damn obvious, at least to me. Same for mask wearing, social distancing, etc. Hell, Republicans are actively preventing local governments and school boards from enacting preventative measures to fight COVID, threatening their jobs and their funding. Polling is extraordinarily clear on this, with a recent poll I saw showing 95% of Democrats already vaccinated or plan to be while only 40% of Republicans say the same. Another poll shows 58% of Republicans saying they will never get the shot while only 15% of Democrats say the same. Other polling has different numbers but similarly enormous gaps between Dems and Repubs. Conservative leaders are killing their own. Research published in peer reviewed journals showed Republicans taking their early cues from the idiots leading their party and then stuck to them no matter what, to their obvious detriment and to everyone else's as well.

I would love to hear a response from Chance because it does appear to me that the anti vax/anti mask push is all coming from the republican/right wing. Although the behavior of some democrats doesn't always help.

[Bene Futuis]

Unless you consider January "really soon", you're being over optimistic.

Well, the optimistic timeframe is "by Halloween", according to a former FDA head who's on the board of Pfizer. Fauci said October or November. The more reachable goal, I hear, is end of the year. Either way, it's both soon and not soon enough, I suppose.

[DMT]

In really good news, though, it sure looks like we'll be getting a vaccine approved for kids really soon. Pfizer presenting theirs to the FDA by the end of the month. It has been awful and nerve wracking having a kid who can't get vaccinated.

Unless you consider January "really soon", you're being over optimistic.