Closer Watch: 2011

[cardboardbox]

LaRussa is still in STL.

If Salas and Motte split saves the rest of the way thats maybe 3 each? And whoever thought they had a keeper in Salas will be disappointed when the situation is clear as mud all off season.

[Judge Jude]

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa suggested Sunday that Jason Motte could begin seeing more save chances.
Motte, who hasn't allowed a hit since August 6 and hasn't allowed an earned run since June 23, earned his first save of the season in Sunday afternoon's 7-4 victory over the Pirates. "You give guys what they earn, and they make the decisions for you," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said after the game. Fernando Salas may have company in the ninth inning role. Source: St. Louis Post-Dispatch Aug. 29 - 9:53 am et

First off, Motte's numbers for the past few months are unbelievable. Secondly, too many Salas owners went 'la la la la, we can't hear you" earlier in the season when it was noted that all things being equal, La Russa preferred E Sanchez. La Russa has his own quirks, but they're not impossible to read. Salas has pitched quite well but also blown some SV, and when you're not the manager's preferred guy to begin with, he's going to consider other options.

Surprise new closers are suspect acquisitions for rebuilders (Axford's exception notwithstanding).

[fuhrdog]

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First off, Motte's numbers for the past few months are unbelievable.

I own neither but Salas doesn't have the huge split difference that Motte has. Motte might get some saves...but I don't see him closing long term.

[cardboardbox]

First off, Motte's numbers for the past few months are unbelievable. Secondly, too many Salas owners went 'la la la la, we can't hear you" earlier in the season when it was noted that all things being equal, La Russa preferred E Sanchez. La Russa has his own quirks, but they're not impossible to read. Salas has pitched quite well but also blown some SV, and when you're not the manager's preferred guy to begin with, he's going to consider other options.

and quite frankly its a good thing Salas owners didnt listen to you when you were continually pimping Sanchez even after he had clearly lost the closers job and Salas had a solid grasp on it.

[Sharky]

Surprise new closers are suspect acquisitions for rebuilders (Axford's exception notwithstanding).

Had to trade the Ax-man this year (in a rebuilding effort, no less). Breaks my heart, as I think he'll be good for a few years.

[BuckyBuckner]

and quite frankly its a good thing Salas owners didnt listen to you when you were continually pimping Sanchez even after he had clearly lost the closers job and Salas had a solid grasp on it.

Seriously, "la la la la, we can't hear you" produced 22 saves so clearly JJ's attempt at "I told you so" won't have much effect on those owners.

[Judge Jude]

There's a HUGE difference in evaluating guys like Salas in the given year that he's closing, vs the following one. Salas, 10 units in many leagues as a free-agent pickup, went on the radar of many rebuilders while becoming a source of decision for contenders. A rebuilding owner with a lame-duck stud might - after 15 Salas SV this year, have figured a 10-unit Salas (particularly in NL 4x4) is a very nice return.

Also, if ERA is the coin of the realm, Sanchez's was 1.88 this year before he got hurt. Obviously, once that happened and once Salas reached double digits in SV, he figured to get at least some more THIS YEAR, and he did. And I agree that now that he has 22 SV, many of his owners have fallen in love with him. But for 2012 purposes (and now, possibly even September), I still think that will have been a mistake if you're a contender who wouldn't part with him to beef up your 2011 roster because you liked the 2012 price.

Lefties are hitting .270 vs Motte this year with an 88 OPS+, vs .156 and 32 OPS+ vs righties. IF Motte can maintain those numbers vs LHB, he's fine even as the righty numbers go up a bit. Of course, La Russa refused to put him in this spot for two years, so even if he stays on a roll, I wouldn't pencil HIM in for 35 SV in 2012, either.

Sanchez has been out for months, and may or may not come back in Sept. He's been gone too long to still be a viable play at this point, even for 2012.

My best guess is that Heath Bell saves these Cardinals games next year.

[bweiser831]

I really don't care about 2012, but I need Salas to close for the rest of the year. Had him and Isringhausen picked up off the WW and now it looks like they might get 3 saves in September combined.

[BuckyBuckner]

You previous post didn't indicate you were talking about keeper value...

I would agree that anyone holding on to Salas with the hopes of getting saves in 2012 is a bit foolish but at the same time I wouldn't trade him unless I was in the hunt for a money spot.

[Judge Jude]

This was from the previous post, which indicates I was talking about keeper value. That's what rebuilders focus on.

"Surprise new closers are suspect acquisitions for rebuilders (Axford's exception notwithstanding)."

[fuhrdog]

.
My best guess is that Heath Bell saves these Cardinals games next year.

Carpenter has a 15M option, E-Jax won't be cheap either if they decide to keep him..priority is to sign Pujols...not sure where the extra money would come from.

[Judge Jude]

Fair points...

[fuhrdog]

Carpenter has a 15M option, E-Jax won't be cheap either if they decide to keep him..priority is to sign Pujols...not sure where the extra money would come from.

Almost forgot about Berkman who will be a FA

[BuckyBuckner]

This was from the previous post, which indicates I was talking about keeper value. That's what rebuilders focus on.

"Surprise new closers are suspect acquisitions for rebuilders (Axford's exception notwithstanding)."

Something isn't adding up for me though. Saying to be aware of new closers like this now on August 29 is easy to say.

However you were referencing a period earlier in the season where you were cautioning owners that Salas could be a flash in the pan because of Sanchez, but my point still stands, 22 saves later I think those owners are happy they held on to him (keeper value being ignored) and ignored your warning. Rereading, maybe it wasn't your warning that Sanchez was the guy, I don't know, I'm not going to look back but wow, c'mon, you are going to say that it was a bad choice to hold on the Salas cause Motte is going to get some save opportunities and just completely ignore all the saves he's gotten this year? You should be a journalist.

I just find it funny that you come on here with a "I told you so" post when 22 extra saves can possible seal the deal on a championship season.

[Hammer]

if you rolled with Salas, you did fine. If you bet on Sanchez, you crapped the bed.