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2024 Election Thread
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Also, I saw a report that top Dems are "terrified" of a Biden run, because they think he'll lose to any Republican -- EXCEPT Trump, LOL.
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The latest Iowa Caucus poll now has DeSantis in the lead with 32% and Trump with 30%. Trump had a 30% lead in June and 44% lead in November 2021, and the pollster who did it says that "Trump is now a big underdog."
Meanwhile in NH, DeSantis has an 11% lead over Trump.
How great will it be if Trump actually does stay in the race and gets walloped? Will he moan about fruad then?
I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- Trump won't run if he knows he's going to lose. And it seems pretty clear that as primary season approaches, he's not going to be the leader in either of the 1st two primaries, which would be an amazing embarrassment. He'll find some way to drop out of the race.
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Originally posted by revo View PostIf the Republican Jewish Coalition conference was any indication, there doesn't appear to be too many Republican candidates shying away from a potential run. DeSantis, Pence, Pompeo, Christie, Haley & Hogan all appeared to hint at a potential run, and a few even bashed TFG by asking how many times do they want to lose. Oof.
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If the Republican Jewish Coalition conference was any indication, there doesn't appear to be too many Republican candidates shying away from a potential run. DeSantis, Pence, Pompeo, Christie, Haley & Hogan all appeared to hint at a potential run, and a few even bashed TFG by asking how many times do they want to lose. Oof.
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostThat is a risk, and we have all underestimated Trump before, but I tend to agree wth Revo here that the GOP knows Trump is not their future, and the signs are there of his fervent following starting to subside. To me, DeSantis is the clear frontrunner at the moment, and it will be very interesting to see how Trump's attempts to put down DeSantis will play with the red state masses. We should be able to tell soon if the name calling and attacks work this time or if that old song and dance has stopped working. I think/hope it has.
EDIT TO ADD: And if the primary gets to any serious states (and, no Iowa and New Hampshire are far from serious) with a deep field, I agree with Seitz that favors Trump as well. And to revo's point, the GOP hasn't proven smart and/or ruthless enough to pull what the Dems did in the 2020 election and basically cull the herd, pick their favorite, and sabotage/politically doom anyone else who goes against the culling.
EDIT TO ADD II: And I'll own it now - I was dead wrong on Nikki Haley. She might end up being the Random GOP Moderate, but I see no window to a presidential run. VP, maybe.
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What do you imagine the GOP will offer TFG if he narrowly is defeated for the nomination, NOT to run 3rd party?
Because it's not so much that Trump can't lose the primary, but rather that he'll hold the GOP hostage with his sizable base if he isn't the nominee.
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostIf a bunch of Republicans run for 2024, aren't they going to effectively hand the nomination to Trump again?
That said, Dems clearly want a big field, lol.
And the name calling already has started with the ridiculous Ron DeSanctimonious and Young Kin
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostIf a bunch of Republicans run for 2024, aren't they going to effectively hand the nomination to Trump again?
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If a bunch of Republicans run for 2024, aren't they going to effectively hand the nomination to Trump again?
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2024 Election Thread
Former Guy is gunning to become Current Guy again, but the realities of the midterm election fiasco will probably doom that chance. As one commentator said about the midterms, the GOP found out the hard way that voters will crawl through glass to vote against him and his proxies.
It doesn't take a PoliSci major to see that there's no path for Former Guy to win again. They had high inflation, an economy that may be in recession, high gas prices, an unpopular president, a major war AND historical precedence on their side and while they did retake the house -- where gerrymandered districts almost guaranteed that would happen -- the statewide races were disastrous. MAGA GOP candidates ran 5%-6% behind '20 outcomes, and virtually everyone Former Guy touched was walloped. This was the worst midterm showing by the party out of power in two decades, and they can thank the hatred of Former Guy and abortion for that. While they can't change their stance on abortion, they can punt Former Guy.
Nevertheless, Former Guy announced his low energy bid on Tuesday, likely because he can now use any legal action against him as a political attack but regardless, the bloom is off the rose. A post-election poll still had him in front with a plurality and not majority, but DeSantis has surged up to 35%, and it's hard to believe the GOP, which has to know backing Former Guy again will be a losing proposition, won't have many horses in the race.
Already, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson has said he's seriously thinking about running and will anounce his decision in January, and you can be sure Mike Pence will run.
If the GOP was smart, they would promote DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin -- who both could easily win -- and back off the disaster that is The Former Guy. But who said they're smart?Tags: None
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