It's a slow draft coming

[onejayhawk]

One of our statheads posted this on the league page.

I have keyed everyone's 2023 final rosters into a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet is a projection for 2024. I assign points to each player based on expected production. If your player is projected to produce over a threshold in any scoring category they get a point. There are bonus points for concentrated production.

Then I looked at the depth at each position and worked out that the hitters that are an all-around asset score 4 points, with Catchers on their own table. Starting Pitchers threshold is 6 points, they need to be perfect to be an asset. Relievers must provide 3 points to be ranked among assets.

Total is 288 difference-makers.

Before keeper declaration, here is the tally of each team's asset players:

2. hustlers = 22
4. Baggers = 21
12. Islanders = 20
1. Seadogs = 20
9. The Temp Agency = 19
3. Heroes = 18
7. B = 17
13. Bonkies = 16
10. ENLIGHTENED ZENS = 16
8. Top Dog = 16
5. J (Me) = 14
14. Corgis = 13
11. Turkees = 12
6. Meatheads = 11
16. Swingers = 11
15. V Industries = 11

Total of 288 difference makers, 257 were owned at the end of the 2023 season.

How many can we keep? I've made some choices for you here, but here is what everyone can keep theoretically:

12. Islanders = 19
2. hustlers = 16
13. Bonkies = 15
4. Baggers = 15
8. Top Dog = 15
7. B = 14
3. Heroes = 14
9. The Temp Agency = 14
5. J = 13
1. Seadogs = 13
10. ENLIGHTENED ZENS = 12
11. Turkees = 12
16. Swingers = 10
15. V Industries = 10
14. CCorgis = 8
6. Meatheads = 7

Total of 288 difference makers, possibly 207 can be kept.

That leaves 81 difference-makers available to draft.

He is trying to tell the weaker players that they are better off dropping more so that they can draft better.

[onejayhawk]

Here is a vague roster of the expected pool. I think that the ranks are by ADP (Iglesias is #60).

1 38 Jose Altuve HOU 2B
2 39 Devin Williams MLW P
3 41 Edwin Diaz NYM P
4 52 Camilo Doval SF P
5 67 Manny Machado SD 3B
6 85 Kyle Schwarber PHI OF
7 86 Ryan Pressly HOU P
8 97 Alex Bregman HOU 3B
9 107 Joe Musgrove SD P
10 108 Evan Phillips LAD P
11 111 Xander Bogaerts SD SS
12 115 Tanner Scott MIA P
13 116 Justin Verlander HOU P
14 120 Ketel Marte ARZ 2B
15 124 Clay Holmes NYY P
16 125 Kenley Jansen BOS P
17 126 Evan Carter TEX OF
18 127 Dansby Swanson CHC SS
19 132 Cedric Mullins BAL OF
20 137 Salvador Perez KC C, 1B
21 138 Chris Bassitt TOR P
22 144 Willson Contreras STL C
23 147 Teoscar Hernandez SEA OF
24 151 Ian Happ CHC OF
25 156 Alec Bohm PHI 1B, 3B
26 166 Jose Berrios TOR P
27 167 Max Muncy LAD 3B
28 169 Craig Kimbrel BAL P
29 170 Cristian Javier HOU P
30 173 Vinnie Pasquantino KC 1B
31 175 Shane Bieber CLE P
32 176 Carlos Rodon NYY P
33 181 Chris Sale ATL P
34 182 Willy Adames MLW SS
35 190 Nolan Gorman STL 2B
36 192 Brandon Nimmo NYM OF
37 194 Luis Campusano SD C
38 196 Lars Nootbaar STL OF
39 199 Ryan Pepiot TB P
40 200 Alex Lange DET P
41 202 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B
42 204 Daulton Varsho TOR OF
43 205 Jose Leclerc TEX P
44 209 Steven Kwan CLE OF
45 212 Yu Darvish SD P
46 213 Lucas Giolito BOS P
47 214 Eloy Jimenez CWS UT
48 215 Jose Alvarado PHI P
49 217 Taylor Ward LAA OF
50 219 Max Scherzer TEX P
51 220 J.D. Martinez LAD UT
52 221 Tyler Stephenson CIN C
53 222 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B
54 223 Ryan McMahon COL 2B, 3B
55 224 Jarred Kelenic ATL OF
56 225 Robert Suarez SD P
57 228 Brandon Drury LAA 1B, 2B
58 229 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARZ OF
59 230 Starling Marte NYM OF
60 231 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B
61 233 Triston McKenzie CLE P
62 236 Elias Diaz COL C
63 238 Shota Imanaga FA P
64 240 Charlie Morton ATL P
65 242 Reid Detmers LAA P
66 243 Kyle Finnegan WAS P
67 244 Yennier Cano BAL P
68 245 Justin Turner BOS 1B
69 246 Andrew Abbott CIN P
70 247 Shea Langeliers OAK C
71 250 Carlos Correa MIN SS
72 251 Ryan Jeffers MIN C
73 253 Emmet Sheehan LAD P
74 254 Danny Jansen TOR C
75 255 Alejandro Kirk TOR C
76 256 Gavin Lux LAD 2B, OF
77 257 Reese Olson DET P
78 261 Matt Chapman TOR 3B
79 262 Eugenio Suarez ARZ 3B
80 263 Taj Bradley TB P
81 265 Matt Brash SEA P
82 266 Brandon Lowe TB 2B
83 268 Kris Bryant COL OF
84 269 Josh Bell MIA 1B
85 271 Jorge Polanco MIN 2B
86 272 Nelson Velazquez KC OF
87 273 Jose Abreu HOU 1B
88 274 Kyle Harrison SF P
89 275 Byron Buxton MIN UT
90 276 Max Kepler MIN OF
91 277 Bryan De La Cruz MIA OF
92 280 Bryan Abreu HOU P
93 281 Marcus Stroman CHC P
94 282 Jose Siri TB OF
95 284 Tommy Pham ARZ OF
96 285 Zach Neto LAA SS
97 287 Will Benson CIN OF
98 288 Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B
99 289 Kutter Crawford BOS P
100 290 Brendan Donovan STL 2B, OF
101 291 Parker Meadows DET OF
102 292 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, OF
103 293 Austin Hays BAL OF
104 294 Brent Rooker OAK OF
105 295 Jung Hoo Lee SF OF
106 297 Jake Fraley CIN OF
107 298 Alex Verdugo NYY OF
108 299 Hunter Harvey WAS P
109 300 Lance Lynn STL P

Out of the first 50 players, I contributed Tanner Scott, Cedrick Mullins, Alec Bohm, Shane Bieber, and Willy Adames, plus Wander Franco.

I will have (roughly speaking) picks 19, 30, 55, and three near the bottom. ADP does pretty well for the top 70 or so. After that, Dynasty values should be used. I have the option of returning Iglesias for the 9th pick but I don't like the likely candidates.

For my top pick, I am focusing on SS Dansby Swanson, OF Cedric Mullins, and SP Chris Bassitt.
For the next pick, 1B Vinnie Pasquantino is the natural slot, which works, though I am hoping for 1B,3B Alec Bohm

[onejayhawk]

16 team H2H league with keepers and an option system. It plays rather like a dynasty league.
For stats, we use both BA and OBA and both holds and saves. Speed is a bit devalued.

We finished declaring keepers and the draft has begun. I will pick 11th in each round but player options count as draft picks. In practice, it will be more like picking in the middle. Looking at likely keepers, there will be two teams with clearly better SP and at least one team with better bats

This is my expected roster.

C Logan O'Hoppe LAA - C (w)
1B Alec Bohm PHI - 1B,3B (5) ???
2B Andrés Giménez CLE - 2B,SS (9)
3B Gunnar Henderson BAL - 3B,SS (10)
SS Elly De La Cruz CIN - 3B,SS (13)
CI
MI
OF Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL - OF (4)
OF Luis Robert Jr. CWS - OF (4)
OF
OF
Util

SP Gerrit Cole NYY - SP (4)
SP Dylan Cease CWS - SP (14)
SP Gavin Williams CLE - SP (w)
SP Brandon Pfaadt ARI - SP (20)
RP Jhoan Duran MIN - RP (7)
RP Raisel Iglesias ATL - RP (4) ???
RP
P
P

BN Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC - OF (18)
BN Jackson Merrill SD - SS (23)
BN Wyatt Langford TEX - OF (26)

One of our managers worked out an approximate ADP range for the available talent in the early rounds, ie 4th - 9th. Rounds 1-3 are occupied by the required keepers.

rd 4 top 125
rd 5 (125-150)
rd 6 (150-175)
rd 7 (175-200)
rd 8 (200-225)
rd 9 (225-245)