It's a slow draft coming

[onejayhawk]

16 team H2H league with keepers and an option system. It plays rather like a dynasty league.
For stats, we use both BA and OBA and both holds and saves. Speed is a bit devalued.

We finished declaring keepers and the draft has begun. I will pick 11th in each round but player options count as draft picks. In practice, it will be more like picking in the middle. Looking at likely keepers, there will be two teams with clearly better SP and at least one team with better bats

This is my expected roster.

C Logan O'Hoppe LAA - C (w)
1B Alec Bohm PHI - 1B,3B (5) ???
2B Andrés Giménez CLE - 2B,SS (9)
3B Gunnar Henderson BAL - 3B,SS (10)
SS Elly De La Cruz CIN - 3B,SS (13)
CI
MI
OF Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL - OF (4)
OF Luis Robert Jr. CWS - OF (4)
OF
OF
Util

SP Gerrit Cole NYY - SP (4)
SP Dylan Cease CWS - SP (14)
SP Gavin Williams CLE - SP (w)
SP Brandon Pfaadt ARI - SP (20)
RP Jhoan Duran MIN - RP (7)
RP Raisel Iglesias ATL - RP (4) ???
RP
P
P

BN Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC - OF (18)
BN Jackson Merrill SD - SS (23)
BN Wyatt Langford TEX - OF (26)

One of our managers worked out an approximate ADP range for the available talent in the early rounds, ie 4th - 9th. Rounds 1-3 are occupied by the required keepers.

rd 4 top 125
rd 5 (125-150)
rd 6 (150-175)
rd 7 (175-200)
rd 8 (200-225)
rd 9 (225-245)

[onejayhawk]

Here is a vague roster of the expected pool. I think that the ranks are by ADP (Iglesias is #60).

1 38 Jose Altuve HOU 2B
2 39 Devin Williams MLW P
3 41 Edwin Diaz NYM P
4 52 Camilo Doval SF P
5 67 Manny Machado SD 3B
6 85 Kyle Schwarber PHI OF
7 86 Ryan Pressly HOU P
8 97 Alex Bregman HOU 3B
9 107 Joe Musgrove SD P
10 108 Evan Phillips LAD P
11 111 Xander Bogaerts SD SS
12 115 Tanner Scott MIA P
13 116 Justin Verlander HOU P
14 120 Ketel Marte ARZ 2B
15 124 Clay Holmes NYY P
16 125 Kenley Jansen BOS P
17 126 Evan Carter TEX OF
18 127 Dansby Swanson CHC SS
19 132 Cedric Mullins BAL OF
20 137 Salvador Perez KC C, 1B
21 138 Chris Bassitt TOR P
22 144 Willson Contreras STL C
23 147 Teoscar Hernandez SEA OF
24 151 Ian Happ CHC OF
25 156 Alec Bohm PHI 1B, 3B
26 166 Jose Berrios TOR P
27 167 Max Muncy LAD 3B
28 169 Craig Kimbrel BAL P
29 170 Cristian Javier HOU P
30 173 Vinnie Pasquantino KC 1B
31 175 Shane Bieber CLE P
32 176 Carlos Rodon NYY P
33 181 Chris Sale ATL P
34 182 Willy Adames MLW SS
35 190 Nolan Gorman STL 2B
36 192 Brandon Nimmo NYM OF
37 194 Luis Campusano SD C
38 196 Lars Nootbaar STL OF
39 199 Ryan Pepiot TB P
40 200 Alex Lange DET P
41 202 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B
42 204 Daulton Varsho TOR OF
43 205 Jose Leclerc TEX P
44 209 Steven Kwan CLE OF
45 212 Yu Darvish SD P
46 213 Lucas Giolito BOS P
47 214 Eloy Jimenez CWS UT
48 215 Jose Alvarado PHI P
49 217 Taylor Ward LAA OF
50 219 Max Scherzer TEX P
51 220 J.D. Martinez LAD UT
52 221 Tyler Stephenson CIN C
53 222 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B
54 223 Ryan McMahon COL 2B, 3B
55 224 Jarred Kelenic ATL OF
56 225 Robert Suarez SD P
57 228 Brandon Drury LAA 1B, 2B
58 229 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARZ OF
59 230 Starling Marte NYM OF
60 231 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B
61 233 Triston McKenzie CLE P
62 236 Elias Diaz COL C
63 238 Shota Imanaga FA P
64 240 Charlie Morton ATL P
65 242 Reid Detmers LAA P
66 243 Kyle Finnegan WAS P
67 244 Yennier Cano BAL P
68 245 Justin Turner BOS 1B
69 246 Andrew Abbott CIN P
70 247 Shea Langeliers OAK C
71 250 Carlos Correa MIN SS
72 251 Ryan Jeffers MIN C
73 253 Emmet Sheehan LAD P
74 254 Danny Jansen TOR C
75 255 Alejandro Kirk TOR C
76 256 Gavin Lux LAD 2B, OF
77 257 Reese Olson DET P
78 261 Matt Chapman TOR 3B
79 262 Eugenio Suarez ARZ 3B
80 263 Taj Bradley TB P
81 265 Matt Brash SEA P
82 266 Brandon Lowe TB 2B
83 268 Kris Bryant COL OF
84 269 Josh Bell MIA 1B
85 271 Jorge Polanco MIN 2B
86 272 Nelson Velazquez KC OF
87 273 Jose Abreu HOU 1B
88 274 Kyle Harrison SF P
89 275 Byron Buxton MIN UT
90 276 Max Kepler MIN OF
91 277 Bryan De La Cruz MIA OF
92 280 Bryan Abreu HOU P
93 281 Marcus Stroman CHC P
94 282 Jose Siri TB OF
95 284 Tommy Pham ARZ OF
96 285 Zach Neto LAA SS
97 287 Will Benson CIN OF
98 288 Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B
99 289 Kutter Crawford BOS P
100 290 Brendan Donovan STL 2B, OF
101 291 Parker Meadows DET OF
102 292 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, OF
103 293 Austin Hays BAL OF
104 294 Brent Rooker OAK OF
105 295 Jung Hoo Lee SF OF
106 297 Jake Fraley CIN OF
107 298 Alex Verdugo NYY OF
108 299 Hunter Harvey WAS P
109 300 Lance Lynn STL P

Out of the first 50 players, I contributed Tanner Scott, Cedrick Mullins, Alec Bohm, Shane Bieber, and Willy Adames, plus Wander Franco.

I will have (roughly speaking) picks 19, 30, 55, and three near the bottom. ADP does pretty well for the top 70 or so. After that, Dynasty values should be used. I have the option of returning Iglesias for the 9th pick but I don't like the likely candidates.

For my top pick, I am focusing on SS Dansby Swanson, OF Cedric Mullins, and SP Chris Bassitt.
For the next pick, 1B Vinnie Pasquantino is the natural slot, which works, though I am hoping for 1B,3B Alec Bohm

[onejayhawk]

One of our statheads posted this on the league page.

I have keyed everyone's 2023 final rosters into a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet is a projection for 2024. I assign points to each player based on expected production. If your player is projected to produce over a threshold in any scoring category they get a point. There are bonus points for concentrated production.

Then I looked at the depth at each position and worked out that the hitters that are an all-around asset score 4 points, with Catchers on their own table. Starting Pitchers threshold is 6 points, they need to be perfect to be an asset. Relievers must provide 3 points to be ranked among assets.

Total is 288 difference-makers.

Before keeper declaration, here is the tally of each team's asset players:

2. hustlers = 22
4. Baggers = 21
12. Islanders = 20
1. Seadogs = 20
9. The Temp Agency = 19
3. Heroes = 18
7. B = 17
13. Bonkies = 16
10. ENLIGHTENED ZENS = 16
8. Top Dog = 16
5. J (Me) = 14
14. Corgis = 13
11. Turkees = 12
6. Meatheads = 11
16. Swingers = 11
15. V Industries = 11

Total of 288 difference makers, 257 were owned at the end of the 2023 season.

How many can we keep? I've made some choices for you here, but here is what everyone can keep theoretically:

12. Islanders = 19
2. hustlers = 16
13. Bonkies = 15
4. Baggers = 15
8. Top Dog = 15
7. B = 14
3. Heroes = 14
9. The Temp Agency = 14
5. J = 13
1. Seadogs = 13
10. ENLIGHTENED ZENS = 12
11. Turkees = 12
16. Swingers = 10
15. V Industries = 10
14. CCorgis = 8
6. Meatheads = 7

Total of 288 difference makers, possibly 207 can be kept.

That leaves 81 difference-makers available to draft.

He is trying to tell the weaker players that they are better off dropping more so that they can draft better.

[onejayhawk]

Time is getting close for keeper designations. Three are no-brainers--Acuna, Cole, and Robert--but the 4th is on the fence. Raisel Iglesias seemingly falls exactly where pick would be (9th) if I released him. My initial thought is to take the bird in hand but the pool is think with closers in that range.

These rankings are based on anticipated drops and ranked by Yahoo preseason numbers. Schwarber could work if he falls but I have a C and two 3B. Dansby, Marte, and Carter don't thrill me, but it's one of them or a second closer. After that, I pick about 21, and 31.

Update: Ignore Yamamoto. He's an off-books keeper like Langford. Do any of the pre-draft ranks seem particularly off?

1	31	Jose	Altuve
2	47	Devin	Williams
3	53	Manny	Machado
4	68	Edwin	Diaz
5	69	Kyle	Schwarber
6	71	J.T.	Realmuto
7	75	Camilo	Doval
8	81	Will	Smith
9	85	Raisel	Iglesias
10	102	Dansby	Swanson
11	103	Evan	Carter
12	104	Ketel	Marte
13	119	Evan	Phillips
14	124	Ryan	Pressly
15	125	Justin	Verlander
16	128	Teoscar	Hernández
17	129	Clay	Holmes
18	130	Cedric	Mullins
19	133	Chris	Bassitt
20	143	Kenley	Jansen
21	144	Ian	Happ
22	145	Alec	Bohm
23	148	Max	Muncy
24	152	Salvador	Perez
25	155	Willson	Contreras
26	157	Shane	Bieber
27	163	Eloy	Jiménez
28	166	Rhys	Hoskins
29	169	Cristian	Javier
30	171	Chris	Sale
31	172	Ryan	Pepiot
32	178	Craig	Kimbrel
33	179	J.D.	Martinez
34	184	Carlos	Correa
35	186	Alex	Lange
36	188	Daulton	Varsho
37	192	Lars	Nootbaar
38	193	Taylor	Ward
39	194	Starling	Marte
40	196	Nolan	Gorman
41	197	Ryan	Mountcastle
42	199	Yu	Darvish
43	200	Carlos	Rodón
44	201	Lourdes	Gurriel
45	203	José	Berríos
46	206	Matt	Chapman
47	215	Brandon	Lowe
48	216	Byron	Buxton
49	220	Brandon	Drury
50	222	José	Abreu

[The Feral Slasher]

Time is getting close for keeper designations. Three are no-brainers--Acuna, Cole, and Robert--but the 4th is on the fence. Raisel Iglesias seemingly falls exactly where pick would be (9th) if I released him. My initial thought is to take the bird in hand but the pool is think with closers in that range.

These rankings are based on anticipated drops and ranked by Yahoo preseason numbers. Schwarber could work if he falls but I have a C and two 3B. Dansby, Marte, and Carter don't thrill me, but it's one of them or a second closer. After that, I pick about 21, and 31.

Update: Ignore Yamamoto. He's an off-books keeper like Langford.

Do any of the pre-draft ranks seem particularly off?

1	31	Jose	Altuve
2	47	Devin	Williams
3	51		Yamamoto
4	53	Manny	Machado
5	68	Edwin	Diaz
6	69	Kyle	Schwarber
7	71	J.T.	Realmuto
8	75	Camilo	Doval
9	81	Will	Smith
10	85	Raisel	Iglesias
11	102	Dansby	Swanson
12	103	Evan	Carter
13	104	Ketel	Marte
14	119	Evan	Phillips
15	124	Ryan	Pressly
16	125	Justin	Verlander
17	128	Teoscar	Hernández
18	129	Clay	Holmes
19	130	Cedric	Mullins
20	133	Chris	Bassitt
21	143	Kenley	Jansen
22	144	Ian	Happ
23	148	Max	Muncy
24	152	Salvador	Perez
25	155	Willson	Contreras
26	157	Shane	Bieber
27	163	Eloy	Jiménez
28	166	Rhys	Hoskins
29	169	Cristian	Javier
30	171	Chris	Sale
31	172	Ryan	Pepiot
32	178	Craig	Kimbrel
33	179	J.D.	Martinez
34	184	Carlos	Correa
35	186	Alex	Lange
36	188	Daulton	Varsho
37	192	Lars	Nootbaar
38	193	Taylor	Ward
39	194	Starling	Marte
40	196	Nolan	Gorman
41	197	Ryan	Mountcastle
42	199	Yu	Darvish
43	200	Carlos	Rodón
44	201	Lourdes	Gurriel
45	203	José	Berríos
46	206	Matt	Chapman
47	215	Brandon	Lowe
48	216	Byron	Buxton
49	220	Brandon	Drury
50	222	José	Abreu

Yes...

[onejayhawk]

Yes...

Yahoo's rankings. What can I say?

Any particular players/pitchers you would target?

As noted above, Swanson, Marte, Carter, Teo, and Mullins don't excite me. I own Mullins and I'm throwing him back in and someone like Ian Happ will likely be available for my next pick. A SP would help but Verlander seems pricey and Bassitt is meh.

In other news, I am talking myself into using the # 21 pick on Alec Bohm's option. His stock has been slowly rising, I need a 1B, and the plus BA makes drafting Schwarber doable. A cherry is that he attended my Alma Mater.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yahoo's rankings. What can I say?

Any particular players/pitchers you would target?

As noted above, Swanson, Marte, Carter, Teo, and Mullins don't excite me. I own Mullins and I'm throwing him back in and someone like Ian Happ will likely be available for my next pick. A SP would help but Verlander seems pricey and Bassitt is meh.

In other news, I am talking myself into using the # 21 pick on Alec Bohm's option. His stock has been slowly rising, I need a 1B, and the plus BA makes drafting Schwarber doable. A cherry is that he attended my Alma Mater.

I was just bumping your thread to get you more views, ha ha. I haven't done any baseball research yet, so I can't really help.

[heyelander]

I was just bumping your thread to get you more views, ha ha. I haven't done any baseball research yet, so I can't really help.

i figured you were just being a dick.

[The Feral Slasher]

i figured you were just being a dick.

you're not wrong. but this thread has never been more popular. We can really get this turned around, make it a real winner !

[heyelander]

you're not wrong. but this thread has never been more popular. We can really get this turned around, make it a real winner !

Still not showing up on the trending column. more work to do.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yahoo's rankings. What can I say?

Any particular players/pitchers you would target?

As noted above, Swanson, Marte, Carter, Teo, and Mullins don't excite me. I own Mullins and I'm throwing him back in and someone like Ian Happ will likely be available for my next pick. A SP would help but Verlander seems pricey and Bassitt is meh.

In other news, I am talking myself into using the # 21 pick on Alec Bohm's option. His stock has been slowly rising, I need a 1B, and the plus BA makes drafting Schwarber doable. A cherry is that he attended my Alma Mater.

Trying to understand the rules gives me a headache...so if you want to keep your first round pick from this year, what does it cost you ? Trying to gauge how much you should value long term vs short term value in your picks.

[The Feral Slasher]

Still not showing up on the trending column. more work to do.

now we're trending !

[onejayhawk]

Trying to understand the rules gives me a headache...so if you want to keep your first round pick from this year, what does it cost you ? Trying to gauge how much you should value long term vs short term value in your picks.

The easiest way to understand is to consider the three required keepers to be your first three picks. There is one optional unrestricted keeper but it costs your fourth-round pick. Those who do not use the optional keeper draft instead. Hence, round four is the first round of the draft and over 80 of the top 100 players are already out of the pool.

After that are 21 option rounds that increase at four rounds per year. If in 2023 a player was drafted or kept, say, round nine would be optioned for a 5th-round pick. That's the case with my team and Bohm. The next wrinkle is that players acquired off waivers fit into the first available pick of rounds 10 - 17. In my case, Gunnar Henderson was obtained off WW in July of 2022. He lotted into round 14 last year and is now optioned in round 10. Next year his option will be in round 6. After Gunnar will be my two WW pick-ups of last season, Gavin Williams and Logan O'Hoppe. In rounds 13 and 14 we get two more optioned players, Elly de la Cruz and Dylan Cease. Had I a third WW pick that I felt was worth the cost, he would slot into round 15 but I choose to retain the pick. My other options are in rounds 18, 20, 24, and 26. Check the OP for names.

Three mandatory keepers have dynasty values or are close to them. The next several rounds, say 5 - 15, are redraft values. Thereafter, dynasty values take over. Because waiver pickups slot to the lowest available round, it is not unusual to cover 4 rounds with 20 new picks. In my case, rounds 10 - 14 are booked. Rounds 15 - 17 will likely have 7 - 10 players picking. After round 20, the remaining options are few and far. That's why having Yamamoto, Langford, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all in round 26 is so unique. We would also have had Outman as well, but someone gave up on him to soon.

The OP has all the option rounds listed after the player's name. The whole thing is very complex but I hope this helps.

[The Feral Slasher]

So is there a holds category and one for saves, did not understand that comment....but it makes me question so many things, but mostly if u should keep Iglesias

[onejayhawk]

So is there a holds category and one for saves, did not understand that comment....but it makes me question so many things, but mostly if u should keep Iglesias

I have moved on from that.

The question now is whether to keep Alec Bohm in the 5th round. A round, either up or down, is decisive. He's on the cusp. He's also missing from the list, falling between Ian Happ and Max Muncy.

Update: Fixed the list. Yamamoto out, Bohm in.

After due consideration, I will not keep either Iglesias or Bohm. They are close to their real value which means there is a real chance that they are still on the board when I pick.