Closer Watch: 2011

[The Dane]

Hey OK.... what do we do as Kuo owners? Hold him or dump him?

I'd say, in anything shallower than a 12-team NL, I'd cut him. He'll not be seeing save chances anytime soon. Cut bait if anything interesting shows up on the waiver wire.

[FBP]

if you have a DL or reserve slot I would say hold onto him

[Hornsby]

I think that Jansen is going to be the guy before too long...he's getting shots in pressure situations and coming through quite nicely. He's what Broxton used to be, a beast.

[overkill94]

I think that Jansen is going to be the guy before too long...he's getting shots in pressure situations and coming through quite nicely. He's what Broxton used to be, a beast.

That's what I had tried to explain in my post that disappeared. If you look at his last 9 appearances you'll see some truly dominating numbers:

8 2/3 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 5 BB, 16 K's

9 of the 11 earned runs he's allowed this year came in two disastrous appearances so for the most part he's been the same dominant pitcher he was last year. He still needs to cut down on the walks, but his K-rate is top-notch and he has the most closer-like profile of anyone in that bullpen.

[Bodhizefa]

Feliz and Soria both look like shadows of their former selves. What the hell is wrong with these guys?!

[Jimmy Colorado]

Mass dropping of Padilla in yahoo, to the tune of 10k+. Usually when that happens, it's because Yahoo got around to updating a player note or putting the guy in the DL, but I see no new news. Do these guys know something that hasn't made it to rotoworld? Something said during the broadcast maybe?

[revo]

Mass dropping of Padilla in yahoo, to the tune of 10k+. Usually when that happens, it's because Yahoo got around to updating a player note or putting the guy in the DL, but I see no new news. Do these guys know something that hasn't made it to rotoworld? Something said during the broadcast maybe?

He has tightness in his forearm and Gurrier and Jansen got the last 2 saves.

[cardboardbox]

Feliz and Soria both look like shadows of their former selves. What the hell is wrong with these guys?!

No idea whats wrong but I wonder if given the number of possible extra SP the rangers have, could they move Ogando to closer if Feliz were out for a while with injury? He's going to have a lot of games like this if he doesnt rediscover his skills.

[joncarlos]

Feliz and Soria both look like shadows of their former selves. What the hell is wrong with these guys?!

Soria's velocity is down (91.9 last year, 90.3 this year) and he's throwing more sliders. His K/9 is way down and his BB/9 is way up. He's been unlucky with his LD% and strand rates, but still, I'd be worried. Take note, though, the Royals supposedly found a flaw in his delivery, so it could be a buy-low opportunity.

Feliz' velocity is down too (96.3 last year, 94.5 last year) but he's throwing it about the same. His BB/9 is WAY up (over 7) and his K/9 is way down. I'd be more worried about him. Could be all this starter stuff is messing with his head, or messed up his season prep during ST.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Soria's velocity is down (91.9 last year, 90.3 this year) and he's throwing more sliders. His K/9 is way down and his BB/9 is way up. He's been unlucky with his LD% and strand rates, but still, I'd be worried. Take note, though, the Royals supposedly found a flaw in his delivery, so it could be a buy-low opportunity.

Soria's velocity is not down, and he's not throwing more sliders. Sometimes BIS pitch types are misleading. He's had a new pitching approach since last August that, in addition to his normal fastball, incorporates a slower, more cutting fastball that gets more groundballs and less strikeouts. His strikeouts have also dropped because his curveball, which used to be his out pitch, has not been effective since he was injured a couple years ago.

More detail here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13719

[joncarlos]

So we should buy low on Soria and expect the strand rate to normalize? His BABIP is not inflated, it's just the walks and the additional balls in play.

[Bodhizefa]

So we should buy low on Soria and expect the strand rate to normalize? His BABIP is not inflated, it's just the walks and the additional balls in play.

Here's my take. With Feliz, it seems like an injury is in play (the shoulder is the most probable). With Soria, it seems as if a loss of stuff over time has led to what he is today. I don't think either of them are tremendous buy lows, but I'd rather buy on the guy who still has a chance to returning to greatness (Feliz) than go with the one who has been losing his stuff slowly but surely year by year to the point where he's become mediocre (Soria).

[Kevin Seitzer]

So we should buy low on Soria and expect the strand rate to normalize? His BABIP is not inflated, it's just the walks and the additional balls in play.

I think there's a portion of bad luck with Soria and a portion of "he just isn't quite as dominant as he was any more", but that stretches back to the end of July last year, or further. So when evaluating the new Soria, there's no need to restrict to 2011 stats.

I don't necessarily agree with Bodz that it's a gradual thing. I think it was in two distinct steps. One was the loss of the curveball as his strikeout pitch after his shoulder injury in June 2009. The other was in switching from a strikeout approach to a groundball approach in July 2010. Soria's stuff is still good enough to get quite a few strikeouts, but he's human now, not on the superhuman level any more.

[Kevin Seitzer]

To be more clear: I don't think Soria is a 2.00 ERA and 10 K/9 pitcher any more. I'd say he's more like a 3.30 ERA and 7-8 K/9 guy. That's better than your average bear, but it's not Mariano Rivera territory.

[Bodhizefa]

Salas gave up a single and went 3-0 on the next batter, but battled back to strike him out and strike out the next guy for a save. He looks like he may have a small handle on the job in St. Louis, but he's only as safe as his next outing in my opinion. TLR and Co. are crazy.