Originally posted by BuckyBuckner
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2K14: Billy Hamilton
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In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.
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Originally posted by mjl View PostBourn had 58 SB in a full season at A and 38 in a full season at AA. Ellsbury only had partial seasons at AA but was on about a 50 SB pace. Gordon had 73 SB in a full season at A and 53 in a full season at AA (and his success rate was worse than 75% at both levels). I assume that if those guys could have stolen 150 bases in a year they would have, so with no other data I assume that he is that much faster. Do you have a different explanation?I'm unconsoled I'm lonely, I am so much better than I used to be.
The Weakerthans Aside
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Rickey Henderson stole 95 bases in A and 81 bases in AA (with a worse batting line than Hamilton). That said, Rickey was 19 in AA and Hamilton is 21.
Also, Marcus Lawton stole 111 bases and was caught 8 times. That's pretty impressive.
Alan Wiggins had a decent career and got some MVP votes in 1984.
It's certainly possible that the people who have the really high SB totals are doing that because they see it as their only way to get to the big leagues.
One look at the all time minor league single season HR leader board confirms that those are a bunch of nobodies also: Ron Kittle, Ken Phelps, Tony Solaita, Phil Hiatt, Tim Laudner, Chris Hatcher, Mitch Jones, etc.
and re Tony Campana: people were hyping Dee Gordon up pretty well before this season.In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.
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Originally posted by DJBeasties View PostSay he is the starter next year (hypothetically) what would he go for in standard mixed leagues?
This assumes he doesn't play in the bigs in September of this year. If he does and hits well and steals bases, the hype would be insane. On the other hand if he strikes out like he's Brett Jackson, he wouldn't go for much.
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Originally posted by eldiablo505Well, Amazon.com didn't turn a profit until 2001 even though they debuted in 1994, so maybe that's not the best example. I'm sure you hope Harper shows a nice profit before 7 years.
Stolen bases are awesome for roto but if that's your only skill then your shelf life in the majors will be extremely short. Let's hope Hamilton can continue to get on base as his career progresses. He's certainly not the kind of prospect I usually target but I suppose I'd need a pretty nice return in order to trade him if I owned him at this point.
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Pros
1) The most speed since Vince Coleman. Campana/Gordon/Bourn/Ellsbury's stolen base numbers just don't compare, as mjl explained.
2) Qualifying at middle infield
3) Unlike some other speedsters of recent note, he takes a lot of BBs, meaning he's on base more and he might be able to sustain a decent enough OBP to stick.
4) The Reds need a leadoff hitter.
Cons
1) His defense isn't very good which hurts his chances of sticking - he isn't a glove first with speed guy.
2) He strikes out a lot.
3) Maybe his high BB rate in the minor leagues is because he is patient, and because minor league pitchers don't command their offspeed pitches the way major leaguers can. Major league pitchers might just be able to throw strikes while watching him flail. It isn't as if they have to worry about him hitting a HR.
4) His CS% is understandable, given how often he runs, but it isn't going to get any better at the major league level. If Yadi Molina is a rotojunkie lurker, I bet he is reading this thread and can't wait for Hamilton's arrival.
5) While we're somewhat past the steroid era, it isn't the 80s either. Vince Coleman is a pretty good comp - he too was super fast and yet bad at defense; Vince played LF for the Cardinals; I can't imagine Vince would be a regular starter at LF in today's game.
Net - I agree that now is the time to sell high; I can't imagine him having a higher value than he has right now. And I wouldn't buy him at auction next year if he is named the opening day starter, as people tend to discount how likely it is that rookies end up back in the minors. But if you are in a league where he isn't owned and you can grab him and stash him easily for next year, why wouldn't you? The upside here is tremendous - 90 SB/year.
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If batting average relative to BABIP can be considered a skill then Hamilton has been improving every season. He also has decent contact skills and improving ability to draw walks (12.8 percent in high-A and 17.5 in double-A so far). Recent scouting reports claim that his defense at short is not bad and much better than expected, the only weakness is apparently his arm which would not be as much of a problem if he moved to second base.
Everyone seems to concentrate solely on his speed (understandable) but he does have other skills which could aid him in becoming at least useful and possibly a very good major league player.
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"Isn't the threshold for giving players the green light 75%?"
depends a bit on the run-scoring environment, which impacts the relative value of an SB because how important is one run varies. but yeah, probably 70 to 75 pct generally is what you want to exceed to avoid just spinning your wheels in terms of value. of course, that's real baseball. if the Reds are dumb enough to let this guy get 100 SB and 40 CS, that would be a wonderful fantasy player in most leagues.finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1
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He fizzled in spring training but now is back to tearing it up in AAA.
He still needs to take a walk more often but is currently batting .500
4 games
16 at bats
8 hits
6 stolen bases - no cs
1 K - no walks
2 doubles
1 triple
the reds have 3 steals
It is jumping the gun but the gun will sound sooner than later possibly
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He's only playing CF now. There's been speculation that if Choo really can't play CF (two errors yesterday) maybe they move Choo to left and bring up Hamilton, but I don't think they think he's ready yet given his spring training performance and it's not like Hamilton has a ton of CF experience.In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.
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Originally posted by swampdragon View PostHe fizzled in spring training but now is back to tearing it up in AAA.
He still needs to take a walk more often but is currently batting .500
4 games
16 at bats
8 hits
6 stolen bases - no cs
1 K - no walks
2 doubles
1 triple
the reds have 3 steals
It is jumping the gun but the gun will sound sooner than later possibly
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Originally posted by swampdragon View PostHe fizzled in spring training but now is back to tearing it up in AAA.
He still needs to take a walk more often but is currently batting .500
16 at bats
1 K - no walks
re: lack of BBs, I wonder if his speed is a factor; what pitcher wants to walk him? And AAA pitchers tend to be able to throw their fastballs consistently for strikes.
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