2K14: Billy Hamilton

[mjl]

I wouldn't bet on it. Pitchers and catchers are much better at holding runners on and throwing them out at the major league level. Do we really believe that he's that much faster than guys like Ellsbury, Gordon, Bourn?

Bourn had 58 SB in a full season at A and 38 in a full season at AA. Ellsbury only had partial seasons at AA but was on about a 50 SB pace. Gordon had 73 SB in a full season at A and 53 in a full season at AA (and his success rate was worse than 75% at both levels). I assume that if those guys could have stolen 150 bases in a year they would have, so with no other data I assume that he is that much faster. Do you have a different explanation?

[BuckyBuckner]

Bourn had 58 SB in a full season at A and 38 in a full season at AA. Ellsbury only had partial seasons at AA but was on about a 50 SB pace. Gordon had 73 SB in a full season at A and 53 in a full season at AA (and his success rate was worse than 75% at both levels). I assume that if those guys could have stolen 150 bases in a year they would have, so with no other data I assume that he is that much faster. Do you have a different explanation?

I don't have an explanation but you are making several assumptions in your argument. Perhaps those guys didn't want to run as often to save their bodies, maybe the organization didn't value the stolen base as much. My point is, we see these gaudy SB totals often (granted not to this degree - since he did break the record) but they rarely translate to the major league level.

[Ryno84MVP]

Tony Campana is fast too, but I don't see anyone hyping him up as a future fantasy stud.

[mjl]

Rickey Henderson stole 95 bases in A and 81 bases in AA (with a worse batting line than Hamilton). That said, Rickey was 19 in AA and Hamilton is 21.

Also, Marcus Lawton stole 111 bases and was caught 8 times. That's pretty impressive.

Alan Wiggins had a decent career and got some MVP votes in 1984.

It's certainly possible that the people who have the really high SB totals are doing that because they see it as their only way to get to the big leagues.

One look at the all time minor league single season HR leader board confirms that those are a bunch of nobodies also: Ron Kittle, Ken Phelps, Tony Solaita, Phil Hiatt, Tim Laudner, Chris Hatcher, Mitch Jones, etc.

and re Tony Campana: people were hyping Dee Gordon up pretty well before this season.

[james33]

Say he is the starter next year (hypothetically) what would he go for in standard mixed leagues?

Somewhere between Dee Gordon and Michael Bourn's 2011 price, I'd guess. In your hypothetical situation, he'd be similar to Dee Gordon this year but with more speed than Dee Gordon and equal uncertainly over whether he'd last the year in the bigs. Less of a sure thing than Bourn. So I'd venture he'd go smack in between what those two went for.

This assumes he doesn't play in the bigs in September of this year. If he does and hits well and steals bases, the hype would be insane. On the other hand if he strikes out like he's Brett Jackson, he wouldn't go for much.

[JudeBaldo]

Well, Amazon.com didn't turn a profit until 2001 even though they debuted in 1994, so maybe that's not the best example. I'm sure you hope Harper shows a nice profit before 7 years.

Stolen bases are awesome for roto but if that's your only skill then your shelf life in the majors will be extremely short. Let's hope Hamilton can continue to get on base as his career progresses. He's certainly not the kind of prospect I usually target but I suppose I'd need a pretty nice return in order to trade him if I owned him at this point.

I was thinking more along the lines of an early stage/seed investor. Just looking for Kleiner to come in with the Series A. ;-)

[james33]

Pros
1) The most speed since Vince Coleman. Campana/Gordon/Bourn/Ellsbury's stolen base numbers just don't compare, as mjl explained.
2) Qualifying at middle infield
3) Unlike some other speedsters of recent note, he takes a lot of BBs, meaning he's on base more and he might be able to sustain a decent enough OBP to stick.
4) The Reds need a leadoff hitter.

Cons
1) His defense isn't very good which hurts his chances of sticking - he isn't a glove first with speed guy.
2) He strikes out a lot.
3) Maybe his high BB rate in the minor leagues is because he is patient, and because minor league pitchers don't command their offspeed pitches the way major leaguers can. Major league pitchers might just be able to throw strikes while watching him flail. It isn't as if they have to worry about him hitting a HR.
4) His CS% is understandable, given how often he runs, but it isn't going to get any better at the major league level. If Yadi Molina is a rotojunkie lurker, I bet he is reading this thread and can't wait for Hamilton's arrival.
5) While we're somewhat past the steroid era, it isn't the 80s either. Vince Coleman is a pretty good comp - he too was super fast and yet bad at defense; Vince played LF for the Cardinals; I can't imagine Vince would be a regular starter at LF in today's game.

Net - I agree that now is the time to sell high; I can't imagine him having a higher value than he has right now. And I wouldn't buy him at auction next year if he is named the opening day starter, as people tend to discount how likely it is that rookies end up back in the minors. But if you are in a league where he isn't owned and you can grab him and stash him easily for next year, why wouldn't you? The upside here is tremendous - 90 SB/year.

[BigJonEmpire]

If batting average relative to BABIP can be considered a skill then Hamilton has been improving every season. He also has decent contact skills and improving ability to draw walks (12.8 percent in high-A and 17.5 in double-A so far). Recent scouting reports claim that his defense at short is not bad and much better than expected, the only weakness is apparently his arm which would not be as much of a problem if he moved to second base.

Everyone seems to concentrate solely on his speed (understandable) but he does have other skills which could aid him in becoming at least useful and possibly a very good major league player.

[Gregg]

Tony Campana is fast too, but I don't see anyone hyping him up as a future fantasy stud.

He would be if he were playing in the land of OZ.

[Judge Jude]

"Isn't the threshold for giving players the green light 75%?"

depends a bit on the run-scoring environment, which impacts the relative value of an SB because how important is one run varies. but yeah, probably 70 to 75 pct generally is what you want to exceed to avoid just spinning your wheels in terms of value. of course, that's real baseball. if the Reds are dumb enough to let this guy get 100 SB and 40 CS, that would be a wonderful fantasy player in most leagues.

[swampdragon]

He fizzled in spring training but now is back to tearing it up in AAA.

He still needs to take a walk more often but is currently batting .500

4 games
16 at bats
8 hits
6 stolen bases - no cs
1 K - no walks
2 doubles
1 triple

the reds have 3 steals

It is jumping the gun but the gun will sound sooner than later possibly

[B-Fly]

Would he likely come up as a SS or as an OF? Has he been playing any OF in the minors?

[mjl]

He's only playing CF now. There's been speculation that if Choo really can't play CF (two errors yesterday) maybe they move Choo to left and bring up Hamilton, but I don't think they think he's ready yet given his spring training performance and it's not like Hamilton has a ton of CF experience.

[JudeBaldo]

He fizzled in spring training but now is back to tearing it up in AAA.

He still needs to take a walk more often but is currently batting .500

4 games
16 at bats
8 hits
6 stolen bases - no cs
1 K - no walks
2 doubles
1 triple

the reds have 3 steals

It is jumping the gun but the gun will sound sooner than later possibly

One of which was stealing home.

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=26073025

[james33]

He fizzled in spring training but now is back to tearing it up in AAA.

He still needs to take a walk more often but is currently batting .500


16 at bats
1 K - no walks

1 K in 16 ABs - small sample size of course, but quite happy to see this and I'm not so concerned about the lack of BBs. His BABIP should be higher than average because of his speed, and if he can maintain a high contact %, he'll be on base plenty of times to steal bases.

re: lack of BBs, I wonder if his speed is a factor; what pitcher wants to walk him? And AAA pitchers tend to be able to throw their fastballs consistently for strikes.