2K14: Billy Hamilton

[Hornsby]

Hamilton 18 CS matches the most CS in baseball since 2007, when Jose Reyes had 21 CS to go with 78 SB

tough to catch Scott Podsednik 23 CS with 59 SB in 2005 though

no one has had 25 CS - which Hamilton could reach this year - since Brett Butler 1991, who had an astounding 28 CS to go with just 38 SB

Hamilton OBP now .298

not having a good offensive season, is having a very good defensive season, and is a Roto stud if not an OBP league

Oh, I don't know...he's hitting about 25 points higher than most expected, with much more power than most expected, and he's got about the amount of steals that should have been expected to date. His OPB is atrocious, but it could be argued that he accomplishes more with that low OPB and speed, than some players with an OBP 50 points higher.

Obviously still very much a work in progress, but a player who'll be fun to watch to see what develops.

[mjl]

He also forces a bunch of errors that don't show up in the stats, like this one yesterday when he went from first to third on a grounder to short and scored on the throwing error to third: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index...b_1&mode=video

[bryanbutler]

His OPB is atrocious, but it could be argued that he accomplishes more with that low OPB and speed, than some players with an OBP 50 points higher.

it could be argued, but i'd argue against it. take half his SB and subtract CS, and add it to H + BB, and you still only have an effective OBA of about .315. that, in a nutshell, is a rough Runs Created calculation. his CS basically negate his SB...

[Hornsby]

it could be argued, but i'd argue against it. take half his SB and subtract CS, and add it to H + BB, and you still only have an effective OBA of about .315. that, in a nutshell, is a rough Runs Created calculation. his CS basically negate his SB...

So how do you figure in what mjl suggested, the chaos that he causes on the basepaths? I think that you're undervaluing what he does, and how much celing that he has. Let's say that this is his floor...or do you think that he's playing over his head right now?

[bryanbutler]

So how do you figure in what mjl suggested, the chaos that he causes on the basepaths? I think that you're undervaluing what he does, and how much celing that he has. Let's say that this is his floor...or do you think that he's playing over his head right now?

it's a good point. but most of that is already taken into account because he got an extra base on a hit (so it comes in in his SLG). but, say, for the sake of argument, that he took an extra base on somebody else's hit when a "normal" runner wouldn't have been able to, 10 times this year (pretty generous, i'd say, as i'd bet it's less than that). that's still only an effective increase in RC of 10/450, or about 20 points. better, but not great by any means.

i'm not a BH-basher by any stretch; he's young and has time to improve. but if he's going to improve, he's *got* to get on base more.

[Judge Jude]

now .263 AVG and .295 OBP, both his lowest since mid-June. man, they NEVER give this kid a day off, either.

this is still a little better than I expected coming off a .308 AAA OBP season last year. I agree that he could get better and quite possibly will. I just didn't get the 2014-specific hype, especially as a "real player." His defense has been even better than I thought, and I can't see a reason for him to regress. An excellent young defensive CF with great speed. Has a chance to be a star, but as you say he needs work.

as far as "chaos on basepaths," Bill James noted 30 years ago that there's also chaos for the batter in many cases. there's no reason to believe the pitcher and catcher are nearly having seizures with Hamilton on first while the batter doesn't even notice him, or doesn't notice that 5 pickoff throws are throwing off his hitting rhythm as well.

James' brilliant point was the remarkable correlation between "good things" and wins. the only exception was steals, historically. if the "causes chaos" phenomenon exists to a tangible exent to the benefit of the team, it should show up in such correlations. but it just isn't there. at all. teams that steal a lot of bases and even teams that steal at a high pct don't produce any mysterious "extra wins" that could be accounted for by such chaos.

it's an appealing theory, but to my knowledge there is no actual evidence for it.

[Judge Jude]

"Hamilton is hitting just .222 with one homer, eight RBI and 17 steals in 189 at-bats since the All-Star break. He hit .285 with five homers, 38 RBI and 38 steals in 333 at-bats previously."

.301 OBP for year, 21 CS

work on the Cooperstown plaque has been suspended until further notice

(and no, his supporters don't have to get upset. he's been a fun player to talk about)

[Gregg]

And if you own him what would it take for you to trade him?

[Judge Jude]

Well, I own Dee Gordon (a 2B hitting .286 w .328 OBP, more SB and fewer CS and 99 OPS+ vs Hamilton 88), who has had a better year. I imagine in both keeper leagues both are inexpensive and why bother dealing them?

[Gregg]

Well, I own Dee Gordon (a 2B hitting .286 w .328 OBP, more SB and fewer CS and 99 OPS+ vs Hamilton 88), who has had a better year. I imagine in both keeper leagues both are inexpensive and why bother dealing them?

In our NL only 5x5 keeper they are both $15 entering into their B contract years. After next year the owners will have to play that third year out at $15 or give them raises at $5 additional for each year.

I own Ben Revere at 22B. I doubt I give him a raise. I also have a few extra rookie status guys. So would a 22B Revere and a free Trea Turner or Robert Stephenson be enough (or too much) for a $15 Hamilton or Gordon?

[james33]

work on the Cooperstown plaque has been suspended until further notice

(and no, his supporters don't have to get upset. he's been a fun player to talk about)

He has indeed been a fun player to talk about - judging by the number of pages in this thread, you and I aren't the only ones. And I was a scared Hamilton owner pre-season, fearing that he had no business on a major league roster after his subpar 2013.

But I think here you are moving the goalposts, err, the centerfield fence, back quite a bit. IIRC, the preseason debate was not whether he'd be a hall of famer. Nor was it even whether he'd be above average in regular baseball.

Rather, the preseason debate was how much Hamilton was worth in roto....was he worth the $22 that toutwars paid for him in an NL-only league? Was he worth the $28 that NL LABR paid for him? Was he going to hit so poorly that he'd be in the minors by May?

By those measuring sticks, how has Hamilton done? He's still in the majors, so I imagine most Hamilton owners, like myself, are quite happy with his production - sure, I'd love for him to have had 80 SB by now, but my greater fear pre-season was whether he'd even get 20 (would he stay in the majors?)

Does anyone have a good source for in-season roto $ - has Hamilton earned over $22? Over $28?

[Gregg]

He has indeed been a fun player to talk about - judging by the number of pages in this thread, you and I aren't the only ones. And I was a scared Hamilton owner pre-season, fearing that he had no business on a major league roster after his subpar 2013.

But I think here you are moving the goalposts, err, the centerfield fence, back quite a bit. IIRC, the preseason debate was not whether he'd be a hall of famer. Nor was it even whether he'd be above average in regular baseball.

Rather, the preseason debate was how much Hamilton was worth in roto....was he worth the $22 that toutwars paid for him in an NL-only league? Was he worth the $28 that NL LABR paid for him? Was he going to hit so poorly that he'd be in the minors by May?

By those measuring sticks, how has Hamilton done? He's still in the majors, so I imagine most Hamilton owners, like myself, are quite happy with his production - sure, I'd love for him to have had 80 SB by now, but my greater fear pre-season was whether he'd even get 20 (would he stay in the majors?)

Does anyone have a good source for in-season roto $ - has Hamilton earned over $22? Over $28?

I am not sure what he is really worth. It really depends on your league. The ones you mentioned start over every year. Keeper leagues with inflation is a whole different story.

He does get caught a lot. Still he is on pace for over 60 sbs a .260 ave. is not a killer. With inflation he is under priced at $22. I think if he were back in our league he would bring close to $30. The thought being he can and will get better.

As you mentioned people were jumpy at the beginning of the year over the possibility of him getting sent down. Honestly if I paid $22 for him this year I would be happy.

[virgonomic]

Does anyone have a good source for in-season roto $ - has Hamilton earned over $22? Over $28?

Thomas George says he has earned $22 to date in a 10-teamer. Increases to $24 in a 12-teamer.
http://www.letsplay2.com/baseball/dollar_parms.cfm

[Judge Jude]

HQ has Hamilton at $32 this year, not sure of exact parameters (DGordon at $36)

he's been a terrific fantasy player, for sure, and should be again next year. I thought he was risky before the season, but I wouldn't be as afraid next year. that said, the Dominic Brown School of Thought is all about not paying 100 pct on a guy without 2-3 years of established at the level you're paying for.