2K14: Billy Hamilton

[cavebird]

1 K in 16 ABs - small sample size of course, but quite happy to see this and I'm not so concerned about the lack of BBs. His BABIP should be higher than average because of his speed, and if he can maintain a high contact %, he'll be on base plenty of times to steal bases.

re: lack of BBs, I wonder if his speed is a factor; what pitcher wants to walk him? And AAA pitchers tend to be able to throw their fastballs consistently for strikes.

A reduced BB rate may be the function of moving up the ladder. A whole lot of AAAA starters in AAA who have enough control not to walk hitters that lower-level minor leaguers don't have. With little power and iffy defense, however, you wonder how valuable a major leaguer he would be. The Vince Coleman comp from early in the thread springs to mind. Fantasy gold, but dubious real baseball effectiveness.

[JudeBaldo]

A reduced BB rate may be the function of moving up the ladder. A whole lot of AAAA starters in AAA who have enough control not to walk hitters that lower-level minor leaguers don't have. With little power and iffy defense, however, you wonder how valuable a major leaguer he would be. The Vince Coleman comp from early in the thread springs to mind. Fantasy gold, but dubious real baseball effectiveness.

I'm sure he makes it easier for the Reds to score runs right?

[ThatRogue]

What is not being considered is the value of speed beyond the SB and standard baserunning, which is hard to quantify. Pitchers change to the stretch or slide step with men on base. Defenders rush throws when they know a speedy runner is heading to first. Managers call for a pitch out, costing themselves a ball in the pitch sequence. And the player can stretch doubles into triples as well as score from third on more shallow fly outs. I remember doing some analysis on Jose Reyes a few years ago, and noted that he scored more often, as a percentage of times-on-base, than did other speedy contemporaries like Ichiro and Crawford. And trust me, the Mets lineup was not the cause of that...

[cavebird]

I'm sure he makes it easier for the Reds to score runs right?

Depends on who he is replacing. If he gets on base at a 30% clip and is replacing a guy with more power who got on base at a 34-35% clip, then no.

[mjl]

Have there been any good studies done of pitch selection when a very fast guy is on base (i.e. more fastballs) and if that affects the hitting of the next guy? It seems like something I've heard claimed anecdotally but I don't remember seeing an actual study.

[B-Fly]

Depends on who he is replacing. If he gets on base at a 30% clip and is replacing a guy with more power who got on base at a 34-35% clip, then no.

Presumably at this point he'd be replacing the Chris Heisey (.750 career OPS)/Xavier Paul (.699 career OPS) duo. Then Ludwick returns (.800 career OPS, .877 last season), which would make B-Ham's replacement value more of a question.

[JudeBaldo]

Depends on who he is replacing. If he gets on base at a 30% clip and is replacing a guy with more power who got on base at a 34-35% clip, then no.

He'd be replacing Heisey.

[cavebird]

Presumably at this point he'd be replacing the Chris Heisey (.750 career OPS)/Xavier Paul (.699 career OPS) duo. Then Ludwick returns (.800 career OPS, .877 last season), which would make B-Ham's replacement value more of a question.

But what would we expect B-Ham to OPS? I doubt it would get up to .700 at this point. The speed would help, but I am not sure how much.

[B-Fly]

But what would we expect B-Ham to OPS? I doubt it would get up to .700 at this point. The speed would help, but I am not sure how much.

He averaged around .750 in the minors. While I presume that would drop closer to .700 in the majors, I think the speed factor could give him a higher overall value to the offense than Heisey/Paul, but there's only one way to find out.

[ThatRogue]

But what would we expect B-Ham to OPS? I doubt it would get up to .700 at this point. The speed would help, but I am not sure how much.

I'd start with Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes early seasons, as a baseline.

[Gregg]

1 K in 16 ABs - small sample size of course, but quite happy to see this and I'm not so concerned about the lack of BBs. His BABIP should be higher than average because of his speed, and if he can maintain a high contact %, he'll be on base plenty of times to steal bases.

re: lack of BBs, I wonder if his speed is a factor; what pitcher wants to walk him? And AAA pitchers tend to be able to throw their fastballs consistently for strikes.

No one should want to walk him as he will be on third base in about 3 more pitches after he walks.

[Judge Jude]

Have there been any good studies done of pitch selection when a very fast guy is on base (i.e. more fastballs) and if that affects the hitting of the next guy? It seems like something I've heard claimed anecdotally but I don't remember seeing an actual study.

I remember a mid-1980s Baseball Abstract where Bill James could find virtually zero correlation between a team's frequency of steals and their W-L record. The "distractions" idea sounds good on paper, but then it should show up in studies, too, by helping teams win games. As far as I know, the evidence simply isn't there.

[cavebird]

He averaged around .750 in the minors. While I presume that would drop closer to .700 in the majors, I think the speed factor could give him a higher overall value to the offense than Heisey/Paul, but there's only one way to find out.

Given the questions with his bat, since there are decent options ahead of him, why not let him learn a bit more in AAA first? Another injury, to Choo, for example, and it would probably make more sense.

[cavebird]

I remember a mid-1980s Baseball Abstract where Bill James could find virtually zero correlation between a team's frequency of steals and their W-L record. The "distractions" idea sounds good on paper, but then it should show up in studies, too, by helping teams win games. As far as I know, the evidence simply isn't there.

If I had to guess, any runner on base is bad enough that the fast ones don't make that significant of a difference.

[JudeBaldo]

I remember a mid-1980s Baseball Abstract where Bill James could find virtually zero correlation between a team's frequency of steals and their W-L record. The "distractions" idea sounds good on paper, but then it should show up in studies, too, by helping teams win games. As far as I know, the evidence simply isn't there.

The 80s? They didn't even have running water back then man.