RJ Mock One Discussion Thread

[mjl]

I've been in leagues before where major and minor league games are added together, and honestly I didn't think that hard about it, I just saw that Fantrax said he was a 2B.

[Ken]

OK, now that rosters are MOSTLY filled in (2 catcher spots open, I just filled in with a couple of the best names left), we can do some quick analysis.

Running each roster through steamer projections gives the following results:

1st Feral Slasher 136.5
2nd mjl 128.5
3rd Ken 113.5
4th Big Tymers 105.5
5th DMT 103
6th Joncarlos' Mockumentarians 96.5
7th Fresno Bob 96
8th Piney Boy 95
9th Swampdraggin 88
10th Mithrandir 87
11th Revo 83
12th bigjonempire2 80
13th BuckyBuckner 80
14th mgwiz22 74
15th cool hand 65
16th Hornsby 57
17th Ottawa Triple Ehs 41.5

DepthCharts projections are similar:

1st mjl 137
2nd Feral Slasher 134
3rd Ken 123
4th Big Tymers 101.5
5th DMT 97.5
6th Piney Boy 96
7th Fresno Bob 96
8th Mithrandir 92.5
9th Joncarlos' Mockumentarians 92
10th Revo 79
11th Swampdraggin 75.5
12th bigjonempire2 75.5
13th mgwiz22 75
14th BuckyBuckner 74.5
15th Hornsby 72
16th cool hand 71.5
17th Ottawa Triple Ehs 37.5

The order is very similar between the standings, with Joncarlos moving the most with 3 spots different (6th in steamer, 9th in depthcharts)

[Ken]

Team strengths/weaknesses:

FeralSlasher - Best ERA, WHIP, HR, RBI. Projection systems are all still high on Kershaw despite injury concerns that we all have. So getting Kershaw 6th allows Slasher to have one of the best teams. Hanley in the 16th round was a steal based on projections, although again in the real mlb there are some concerns about his role. OBP is his worst category although many are clumped around the .330 area.

mjl - Most SB, near the top in HR/RBI, ERA/WHIP. Altuve obviously carries a lot of the offensive side and Syndergaard/Severino give him two top pitchers as well. OBP is in the bottom half and Runs are a tick lower than you'd expect.

Ken (self analysis) - only team among the last 3 in draft order who is among the top 12 in either standings. Of course I used the data analysis for my picks so it's not actually fair at all to then go back and analyze my draft based on the same parameters that I used to draft it. I think I'm strong on the offensive side with above average ratings in every category on offense. Saves are near the bottom third but if I have a weakness after a draft that's what I want it to be since closers are so regularly picked up mid season. Given that, maybe Kimbrel was a bad choice at the end of round 3, if I'm not committing to saves in the draft, why spend a premium pick??

Big Tymers - Strong in SB, and solid in all pitching categories (although not at the top of any one of them). Turner is obviously the offensive key and the reason SB is solid. Weak in OBP (again though those groupings are very close).

DMT - 3rd overall in hitting vs 9th in pitching. Solid across the board in the hitting categories with top 4 finishes in runs and RBI. Pitching is weaker primarily because 5 of the pitchers rostered are relievers, so wins and Ks suffer (although he's 1st in saves).

Joncarlos - top 6 in every category but SB and Saves, where he's bottom 4. Relying only on Kenley (plus a Kela lottery ticket) makes the projections put him bottom 4 in saves despite having the best closer (similar discussion as my team above with Kimbrel). 81 SB projected are the low number for the league.

Fresno Bob - Wins, Ks, and Saves are set, along with OBP and SB but HR and RBI suffer, and ERA/WHIP are middle of the pack. Lack of power numbers is surprising with Stanton on the team but Stanton, and Seager are the only bats with power in his first 11 picks.

Piney - Best hitting team, but 3rd worst pitching. OBP, HR, R, RBI are all top 3, while SB is below average. On the pitching side the counting stats are lacking, wins Ks, and Sv all bottom third. Carrasco and Lester being the only pitchers in the first 9 rounds may lead to that type of result. Old school hitters first mentality may prove projections wrong though.

Swampdragon - 2nd best hitting team, last place in pitching. Runs and RBI are great, but similar to Piney the counting stats are lacking on the pitching side, to an even greater extent. Again, Carlos Martinez and Alex Wood being the only pitchers in the first 12 rounds leads to this type of projection. Same caveats apply as Piney's

Mithrandir - 4th in pitching and 14th in hitting. ERA, WHIP, W, K all above average. Only top 4 pitching team that isn't in the top 4 in the overall standings. Primarily because the hitting is projected to be well below average. Scherzer and Verlander in the 1st 3 rounds, followed by Nola in the 5th can leave a team relatively weak on hitting.

Revo - 13th in hitting, 7th in pitching. OBP and SB are middle of the pack, wins and Ks are good. HR, R, ERA are bottom third. Team is heavy in youth, Benintendi, Ohtani, Moncada, Devers, Weaver, Happ all top 10 round picks, so the variance could be extremely high on this team. I personally love these type players and enjoy drafting them and watching them grow, but the teams I have that look like this (which is more often that I'd like to admit) don't ever meet my expectations since such a large percentage of those young guys disappoint vs the other options available in the tier.

bigjon - 6th in hitting, 2nd to last in pitching. Highest OBP, 2nd highest HRs, RBI are top third. But ERA and WHIP are bottom 2 along with steals. Trout carries the offense but Tanaka and Cole being the only pitchers in the top 10 rounds drags down the pitching projections.

Bucky - 11th in hitting, 10th in pitching. OBP and Svs are great. Rest of the projections are below average. Several players on Bucky's team had bounceback years last year that the projection systems don't necessarily buy 100% (Greinke, Andrus, Moustakas, Marwin, Zimmerman)

mgwiz - 11th in hitting (tied), 13th in pitching. SBs are great but the rest of the offense is average. Similarly on the pitching side, Wins and Ks are solid, but Sv/ERA/WHIP are bottom 3. I don't think he's drafted any relief pitchers so that could be the reason for the 3 category deficit, but if the starters are good enough maybe that becomes just a 1 category problem.

cool hand - 3rd from last in hitting, 10th in pitching. The pitching side is Jekyll and Hyde, ERA, WHIP and Svs are strong but W/K are last in the league. On the offensive side every category is below average with the counting stats again coming up very low. By the 14th round he had 3 relievers but only 2 starters so the categories looking for solid starting pitching are lacking.

Hornsby - 2nd to last in hitting, 5th from last in pitching. SBs, ERA, WHIP are good the rest of the team projects bottom 3 in each category. Projection systems are not giving Acuna a monster season yet, but that variance could change things if he's an immediate star. Bellinger is the only hitter projected for more than 78 R or RBI and the projection systems are not expecting a full season's ABs from many of these guys. Similar to above, the youth could cause significant variance in this team.

Ottawa Triple Ehs - Worst hitting, 3rd worst pitching. Projection systems just don't like this team. Worst or 2nd worst in OBP, HR, R, RBI, ERA, WHIP. Strengths are SB and Saves. I look at the top 4 rounds and I don't see how it ends up projecting this way, Kluber, Jose Ramirez, Marte, and Abreu are good fantasy players. Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista are not getting real projections (13 AB and 1 AB respectively) so I expect this team's numbers to change if they earn starting spots. These are the only two players like that in our drafted rosters so Ottawa is getting pushed down artificially.

Some quick macro analysis - it is very interesting to me that the top 3 projected teams match up directly to the top 3 projected pitching standings, while the top 2 projected hitting teams are middle of the pack. Perhaps that is a warning sign, since pitching is not as predictable as hitting, projection systems tend to overvalue the teams that are heavy in pitching relative to other teams? Feral Slasher's team is based on Kershaw, and mjl had 2 of his top 3 picks as pitchers? Maybe that's why they are "projected" high by these systems that are worse at projecting pitching than they are at hitting?

Anyway, hope this was helpful!

[revo]

Great stuff, Ken!

I'm using Rotolab (with BBHQ projections + my own tinkering), and the projected standings are much different. What's most interesting from your analysis of my team is your projections show my team's Runs Scored as bottom third, yet mine show me as 1st! LOL.

[Ken]

Great stuff, Ken!

I'm using Rotolab (with BBHQ projections + my own tinkering), and the projected standings are much different. What's most interesting from your analysis of my team is your projections show my team's Runs Scored as bottom third, yet mine show me as 1st! LOL.

Glad you enjoyed.

I think differences on the counting stats come down to playing time projections:

Steamer has Broxton with less than 150 AB, Trumbo/Williams/Pedroia averaging 400 AB, and Devers/Sawnson/Davis/Happ averaging around 450.

That puts you in the bottom third in AB which causes the low R projections.

Some of that can be mitigated with a replacement level Pedrioa sub, which obviously this type analysis can't easily account for without looking at each player on a case by case basis.

[Fresno Bob]

Great stuff, Ken!

I'm using Rotolab (with BBHQ projections + my own tinkering), and the projected standings are much different. What's most interesting from your analysis of my team is your projections show my team's Runs Scored as bottom third, yet mine show me as 1st! LOL.

post away!

[DMT]

Thanks for the overview Ken!

[The Feral Slasher]

Great stuff, Ken!

I'm using Rotolab (with BBHQ projections + my own tinkering), and the projected standings are much different. What's most interesting from your analysis of my team is your projections show my team's Runs Scored as bottom third, yet mine show me as 1st! LOL.

So I've only been in two auctions in the last 8 years...how many of you use draft software ? I assume that is what Rotolab is ? What does it help with mostly ? Does it feel like the s/w is controlling the draft more than you are ? I can start a new topic for this if the mods prefer that.

[Ken]

So I've only been in two auctions in the last 8 years...how many of you use draft software ? I assume that is what Rotolab is ? What does it help with mostly ? Does it feel like the s/w is controlling the draft more than you are ? I can start a new topic for this if the mods prefer that.

I use custom spreadsheets that I build out every year. They quickly highlight for me the top $ players available, the top options for each category, and they give me a quick look at $s left per team and spots open. I also have a tab that is running projections during the auction just to give me a general idea of where I am in each category vs the rest of the league.

For me it's a mix of having some automation / being able to see everything in one spot, but with the flexibility of changing it up on my own and not being tied to someone else's idea of what I should looking at.

[revo]

So I've only been in two auctions in the last 8 years...how many of you use draft software ? I assume that is what Rotolab is ? What does it help with mostly ? Does it feel like the s/w is controlling the draft more than you are ? I can start a new topic for this if the mods prefer that.

Starting a new thread is a great idea, I'll post my response once you do.

[mjl]

will post in other thread re draft software.

As far as this league goes, I'm shocked by those projections, though I have been using the Fangraphs projections at least partially to inform my picks (along with Mastersball, which an early version of is actually the data source for Fantrax) so maybe it's not such a surprise that they think I'm doing well. I have ignored the projections for a handful of picks - Gattis because I wanted a catcher though there are decent ones left even now so maybe that wasn't an efficient use, but having a DH at catcher always seems like such a bonus, and Brinson after the trade, and Severino because I think projection systems are too conservative about projecting wins. I'm shocked that I'm projected to be solid in HR, I felt like my outfield was pretty low power in general, but maybe Gattis/Myers/Gallo/Story carries me.

re midseason closers in Ken's comment about his team: I agree with being able to pick up closers midseason, that's certainly the common wisdom, but I think that edge goes away really quickly in competent leagues, especially big leagues like this. Sure there will be closers available, but other people are going to notice that a change has happened/is imminent and you're going to have to outbid 16 other people. At least we're using Vickrey... right? It's also easier in leagues with deep benches, when you can pick up a guy a week or two early and hope. And all that said, I did manage to scrounge up a bunch of saves during the season in RJEL last year which is a lot of the same people, but I don't think I'd want to rely on that.

[cool hand]

Great stuff, Ken!

I'm using Rotolab (with BBHQ projections + my own tinkering), and the projected standings are much different. What's most interesting from your analysis of my team is your projections show my team's Runs Scored as bottom third, yet mine show me as 1st! LOL.

Can we see?

[revo]

Here's what I have using Rotolab (projections not all BBHQ):

Top Tier
1 - revo (of course, I'm using these projections to draft!)
2 - joncarlos
3 - fresno bob
4 - big tymers
5 - mith

Mid Tier
6 - ken
7 - dmt
8 - cool hand
9 - feral slasher
10 - mjl
11 - swampdragon
12 - piney boy
13 - ottawa

Bottom Tier
14 - mgwiz22
15 - bigjonempire
16 - bucky buckner
17 - hornsby

[cool hand]

Thanks!
I'd love to see the individual category ranks between the different forecasters.
Personally, I've never been a fan of Steamer or FANS

[Ken]

Thanks!
I'd love to see the individual category ranks between the different forecasters.
Personally, I've never been a fan of Steamer or FANS

This is what I have for Steamer now that the last few roster spots were filled:

											
		       OBP	HR	SB	R	RBI		ERA	WHIP	W	K	Sv
Feral Slasher		4	17	6.5	15	17		17	17	12	15	15
mjl           		5	13	17	9	12		15	16	13.5	13	14
Ken		        9	9	10	12	8		16	13	13.5	17	6
Big Tymers		7	11	16	13	10		11	10	8.5	10	12
DMT		        10	10	13.5	14	14		6	5	6.5	7	17
Joncarlos' Mock		13	14	1	11	11		12	11	10	9	4.5
Piney Boy		16	15	6.5	16	15		8	6	3.5	4.5	4.5
Swampdraggin		15	12	8	17	16		9	4	2	2	3
Fresno Bob		12	2	12	10	4		7	8	16	14	11
Mithrandir		3	7	5	5	6		10	15	11	16	9
Revo		        11	4	9	4	7		4	9	15	12	8
bigjonempire2	        17	16	2	8	13		2	2	8.5	4.5	7
BuckyBuckner		14	6	3	7	9		5	7	5	8	16
mgwiz22		        8	5	15	6	5		3	3	17	11	1
cool hand		6	8	4	2	3		14	12	1	1	13
Hornsby		        1	3	13.5	3	1		13	14	3.5	3	2
Ottawa Triple Ehs	2	1	11	1	2		1	1	6.5	6	10