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[Pogues]

finished 11th out of 205 yesterday at the World Tavern Poker NJ Regional Tourny... qualifies me for nations (which I had already qualified for)

Hey..that means you can give your second seat away to one of your goooood friends.

Hi buddy!

[johnnya24]

I see the smileys but you've said in multiple posts that I'm reckless/nuts/mad/shove happy and I'm not sure why you're taking my advice from this one hand to generalize my play like that? I simply made a read on the opponent's hand and acted accordingly...and was right. This doesn't mean I would act this way in every hand and I noted that my decisions would depend on how I perceived my opponent.

I am joking ... hence the smileys.

Also, not to boast but just fyi, I've been pretty successful in live MTTs precisely because I don't have just one style of play. But hey, I'm taking notes too..."johnny24 - plays scared when his stack gets low, can easily be pushed off hands"

I've done alright at poker myself

You won't be seeing many flops against me when I have a short stack ... so you'll be hard pressed to implement that info

And at this point in the tournament, just hanging on is not going to do much good in the end; players need to be building their stacks so they aren't playing shove-fold poker as the field narrows. IMO this was a good chance for ITC to do that by inducing his opponent to bluff but we'll find out soon enough.

It's not our fault ITC decided to limp into a pot with no chips OOP

I'm just playing the mess ITC left us with. He should be using his small stack as a hammer preflop ... not messing around with flops. Small stacks should not be seeing flops.

First, your claim that 'there is no value' in the check is not true if it had induced his opponent to bluff (and possibly shove if he was feeling bold/desperate).

If you are so confident with your read ... why are you shoving? What are you scared off? You have all the Ax hands you beat counterfeited with the Broadway draw, so if you believe you have him beat, he's probably only got 2 outs ... why on earth are you shoving? He can't call. That is why you are losing value. Most of the hands you beat still have showdown value and will check behind. Any of the hands that beat you will not fold due to the stack sizes, so you're bust ... and if your read is right, you have just shoved out any value. It's not bad play perhaps, but it is unnecessarily high risk, and certainly not optimal (edit: this kind of aggression is good, but in this particular instance, I think your line on the turn and river is clearly -EV). Keep playing like this your chances of busting will be much greater, and your pots smaller.

The vast majority of his range will have some showdown value on the river ... if he has any big cards in his hand, he will have some kind of pair, if he has a small/mid pocket pair, again he has showdown value ... even mid-s-cons are likely to have hit a pair, and therefore have showdown value. A small bet is more likely to squeeze out this value.

This is exactly the unpredictable board texture you don't want to be making reckless plays on, especially when we have a reasonable holding ourselves.

Second, if our opponent put us on a marginal hand or missed draw, why are you assuming he would not raise with two-pair?

Why would he raise if he put us on a missed draw? We can't call. We can't lose sight of the fact that we only have second pair ... decent showdown value ... not a hand we should be going mad with if we have other options.

I never said he wouldn't raise 2 pair ... I said he wouldn't shove 2 pair over the top of my river stopper bet. He probably will shove 2 pair if I check to him ... then I'm bust if I call. That is why I want to bet the river and not be messing around with weak plays like check-raising (the third check is super weak). My river bet (and story) is super strong with that small value bet on the river ... even a set should just call behind. That's why I'm making the bet. But he doesn't have 2 pair based on the turn action, so it's academic.

If he had 2 pair he always bets the turn to protect their hand and get more value. In fact 2 pair probably shoves the turn. I'm not putting him on a 5, so the river can't have helped.

I wouldn't make that same assumption so your claim that a raise from our opponent increases our chances of having the winning hand from 60 to 80% is simply you trying to fit the potential play into your narrative.

I stand by everything I said above on this point. I am not fitting anything to a narrative. The logic of my explanation is very clear.

If he can shove over the top of my river stopper/value bet, the range he can beat me with is now narrowed to AQ, Q9 or possibly a set ... and I won't be buying that. If he shoves I expect to find a bluff 4 times out of 5. If he has one of those monster hands, he's got me ... nice trap on the turn sir ... and good luck.

If I check and he shoves ... he will bet with a much wider range because I've just checked at him 3 times ... and the fact that I've checked the river OOP after he's checked-back on the turn makes me look VERY VERY weak (I am weak! ugggh). It almost turns my hand range face up. He should even value bet/shove top pair ... which of course eliminates me. That is why there is a massive difference to calling a river check-shove and a value bet-shove.

All very logical ... nothing to do with assumption. All based on information gathering.

Finally, calling his post-flop bet could just as easily been us chasing a draw rather than showing that we have something. People chase draws all the time, especially when they get to this point in the tournament where they need a big win to accumulate chips.

Yeah ... we were chasing a draw. People who chase draws like to make polarizing semi-bluff shoves (as you were advocating).

So, it's easy to say "the outcome of the hand is irrelevant" when you misread the hand (as you clearly did here btw )

8h, 10d, Kd Js 5c ... Misread?

The outcome of the hand is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is making the right plays.

If I value bet the river, it will paralyze his actions ... he can only call with hands like top pair, AJ ... even 2 pair / set hands should really only call based on the strength of my line (calling the flop, then value betting the river with a small stack ... this is a very strong story I'm telling). If I'm as strong as I'm saying I am, why risk shoving on me ... just call. So let's say he has top pair and I lose the pot. I'm left with 17K in chips.

If you check, and he has to see your third check for weak (which it is ... our hand is weak! ugggh), and shoves his top pair ... you are calling (because strangely that is what you want) ... and you are busto.

Same hand, two different lines, two different outcomes. I have 17K and I'm one double up away from about 40K ... you're on the rail.

but if ITC had been able to induce a bluff from his opponent by checking the river, he could be sitting with a lot more chips right now.

uggghhh ... why on earth would you want to encourage someone to shove on you for your tourney life when you are sitting with a crappy second pair? That is seriously -EV tactics ... especially when you can manipulate the pot to get the same result and still stay alive even if you're beat.

[johnnya24]

finished 11th out of 205 yesterday at the World Tavern Poker NJ Regional Tourny... qualifies me for nations (which I had already qualified for)

Did you get anything for the second entry?

[Piney Boy]

Ugh been drawing dead since my table was broken.

At least this round is coming to a close. No more live redraws and a full redraw will happen when a table goes under 5 remaining players.

[heyelander]

Did you get anything for the second entry?

a plaque.

[heyelander]

Ugh been drawing dead since my table was broken.

At least this round is coming to a close. No more live redraws and a full redraw will happen when a table goes under 5 remaining players.

Just limped with KJ suited and the next guy went all-in. Probably shouldn't have limped, but at the same time, my table has been getting a lot of all-in calls. Middle position, KJ suited, one limp before me. what's my pre-flop play?

I've got about 114k right now. blinds are 600/1200 with 200 antes. There are two guys at my table with 200k, one guy with an equal stack to mine and 4 guys between 50-80k.

I folded to the all-in guy.

[DMT]

a plaque.

Ouch...but good luck in nations.

[heyelander]

Ouch...but good luck in nations.

we will see. they are in Atlantic City this year in June. Will depend on where I am living at the time. I think top 5 finishers get WSOP main event entries.

[baldgriff]

Card dead my self. Under 20k here. Looking like its push or fold...

[heyelander]

just got KK in early position... threw out a 3x raise and it's been folding around. fingers crossed that I get a caller.

[In the Corn]

just got KK in early position... threw out a 3x raise and it's been folding around. fingers crossed that I get a caller.

This has been the issue at my table. Someone with a hand leads out with a big bet in early position and it gets folded around. Finding the right balance on the pre-flop raise of keeping one or two people around, but getting rid of those who are fishing is a delicate balance.

[heyelander]

This has been the issue at my table. Someone with a hand leads out with a big bet in early position and it gets folded around. Finding the right balance on the pre-flop raise of keeping one or two people around, but getting rid of those who are fishing is a delicate balance.

I should be so lucky...

Donked off half my stack making a stupid hero call when I was pretty obviously beat. Everything on the board were undercards, but there was a feasible straight and connectors that would have made sense for him to play. Sure enough he had flopped top pair on the river (jacks) and hit his 9 for two pair on the turn. As it was, I had 9 outs so I almost had odds for my call, but it was still stupid. I don't think I make it if I'm at a table, but I think I was being impatient with the format and called.

[johnnya24]

This has been the issue at my table. Someone with a hand leads out with a big bet in early position and it gets folded around. Finding the right balance on the pre-flop raise of keeping one or two people around, but getting rid of those who are fishing is a delicate balance.

They probably don't have big hands ... depending on stack sizes, they are likely raising/shoving a pretty wide range (Ax, any Pocket, big picture cards, mid-high s-cons). This is a great time to pick off some big pots if you get your timing right. If you feel you will get chipped down again, now could be the time to up the aggression levels and take some calculated risks.

In general that is why you should never enter a pot without a raise (like the QJs hand discussed before). You need to show you raise everything. If you only raise your big hands, when you pick up a big hand and raise, you will (should) not get action, except from hands that will crush you if they hit (set mining with pockets, s-cons). If I know someone has AA, KK, QQ based on their tendencies and PF action, I'm calling a pretty wide range of hands, because the implied odds of hitting are huge. I know I'm beat, but I also know if I hit I'll get his whole stack.

If you are limping around, then raise/re-raise a monster hand (AA, KK, QQ etc), you may as well turn your hand face up. You will only win a small pot or lose a huge pot.

[baldgriff]

Yep - I will be in the BB in 2 hands. So it looks like I need a hand here real soon to try and double up.... ACK!

[baldgriff]

IN the big blind and got dealt A8 off... Big stack first to act has raised. Still action to come, I have 20k and could either call the $1000 or push.... likely a push

already 2 callers... Thinking a fold may be in order here