The Republican National Convention

[revo]

I think it wouldnt take much at all for congress to impeach Trump. Repubs are not going to stand up to public opinion against him if he committed an impeachable crime.

Also, I think Trump has much more interest in blasting non citizens into space.

Considering most Republican politicians also dislike Trump, this seems plausible. Then Mike Pence would become president, no?

[Lucky]

I think it wouldnt take much at all for congress to impeach Trump. Repubs are not going to stand up to public opinion against him if he committed an impeachable crime.

Also, I think Trump has much more interest in blasting non citizens into space.

No, that's what mobilizing the troops is for...sending the citizens to different countries around the globe. The non-citizens have to leave the solar system.

[Jefe]

That whole thing was such a shit show. What a bunch of douchebags.

Seriously, I think the only way you can say you're voting for Trump without looking like a complete idiot is the Supreme Court reasoning. I don't agree with it, and think it's foolish anyway, based on his unpredictability. And I personally would much rather see a more progressive court anyway. But without that reason, you're pretty much either too lazy to really be paying attention, or just a douchebag yourself.

[cardboardbox]

Considering most Republican politicians also dislike Trump, this seems plausible. Then Mike Pence would become president, no?

yep, problem solved. Maybe.

[cardboardbox]

Trump takes a somewhat predictable lead in the polls today.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.

The new findings mark Trump's best showing in a CNN/ORC Poll against Clinton since September 2015. Trump's new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump's convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politi...-clinton-poll/

[nots]

I would be interested to see what the effect would be if Johnson and Stein were given additional press coverage and the rules for being invited to the debates weren't so restrictive.

[baldgriff]

Johnson still has a shot to get into the debates.

[revo]

Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight.com said if the election were held today, Trump would win by a comfortable margin. His odds of winning have jumped to 57.6%, while Clinton's have plunged to 42.5%. God help us all.

[revo]

It makes me fear for the safety of my family, both in general and in particular because of their race. Although I do think your numbers are off, as I just looked at his site and he still has Clinton with a better chance of winning.

I feel scared about Trump, his supporters, the rhetoric. I don't often feel that way. I kind of never feel that way.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

[mjl]

Note that the polls and polls-plus forecasts are still reasonably strong for Hillary; the now-cast is taking basically the optimal timing for Trump (post-RNC, post-email leak, pre-DNC) and saying he could win right now. But still horrible.

[cardboardbox]

Note that the polls and polls-plus forecasts are still reasonably strong for Hillary; the now-cast is taking basically the optimal timing for Trump (post-RNC, post-email leak, pre-DNC) and saying he could win right now. But still horrible.

I think Nate Silver said last week that a 4 point bounce would be considered normal, Clinton will get the same thing and in 2-3 weeks when the bounces have dissipated the polls will make more sense.

Interestingly in the polls-plus forecast Trump wins both OH and FL and somehow still finds a way to lose.

[cardboardbox]

I would be interested to see what the effect would be if Johnson and Stein were given additional press coverage and the rules for being invited to the debates weren't so restrictive.

In every poll that includes them, Trump gains which I wouldnt have guessed but it makes sense since there's only one status quo candidate in the race.

[mjl]

on Trump's ties to Russia:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-yes-it-s-really-a-thing

[Lucky]

I would be interested to see what the effect would be if Johnson and Stein were given additional press coverage and the rules for being invited to the debates weren't so restrictive.

Serious question...how much press coverage should someone polling at 4% receive? In 2012 Stein was polling at 3% in October, but finished with less than .37% of the vote (around half a million votes).

[baldgriff]

Serious question...how much press coverage should someone polling at 4% receive? In 2012 Stein was polling at 3% in October, but finished with less than .37% of the vote (around half a million votes).

The problem is its not about how much they should receive - it appears more to be about how much can they afford (or their coalitions can afford). The Green party and Libertarian parties will never be able to compete on an "even" field of play just due to sheer economics. That said, I am sure that due to this it is very likely there is a large percentage of our population that thinks there are only 2 parties. Hell, we even call it a "two party system".

Gary Johnson "3 way" races is polling between 10% - 13% and is just starting to get more coverage because he might make it into the debates.

I cant quantify what they should get, but the commercials "paid for by the (insert name of campaigners) for (insert candidate)" are way more prevalent for the Dems and Reps because they raise more money and can pay for more spots. To date here in MN, I have not yet heard a "I'm Gary Johnson and I approve this message." So its not a matter of press coverage, its also commercial time and space.

Johnson/Weld definitely are getting their message out, but it certainly is not at the same pace mainstream media provides access to the R's or D's.