2018 Midterm Election Thread

[frae]

538 moves ME-2 from tossup to lean D based on exit polls suggesting that 3rd party votes will be reallocated to Golden based on Maines new instant runoff voting law.

[frae]

538 has now moved AZ from a tossup to a lean Democrat. The vote amount still out in Sinema's Congressional District AZ 9 is one of the main reasons.

I think we are now looking at an R+2 in the Senate and until we get clarity on that weird number of Senate votes cast vs Gov votes cast in Broward we can't be sure. That said unless that anomaly is proven to be machine error and we go to the recount with roughly a 10K difference a recount has never chagned a vote by more than about 1,200 and that was the Bush - Gore FL recount of 2000. Since no one including the Florida Law Enforcement has to this time found any fraudlent voting I am inclined to say unlike 2,000 where we were partially debatng chads and dimples we aren't going to get a change in this election unless the machine just didn't count those Broward votes, but as of now I am inclined to believe that people just forgot to vote.

CA is going to take forever to count up the outstanding congressional races there, good read on what is going on and explains that generally speaking most CA races move around 2 points toward Democrats during this process...

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-midterm-california-ballots-20181109-story.html

[OaklandA's]

As the California late votes are being tallied, the Democrats are gaining in all of the close races.
1) In CA-10, Josh Harder (D) now has a 1.8% lead over incumbent Jeff Denham.
2) In CA-48, Harley Rouda (D) has increased his lead over incumbent Dana Rohrbacher to 3.6%.
3) In CA-25, Katie Hill (D) is up by 3.4% over incumbent Steve Knight.
4) In CA-49, Mike Levin (D) is up by 8.6% over Diane Harkey (Darrell Issa's old seat).
5) In CA-45, Katie Porter (D) is within 1.0% (2000 votes) of incumbent Mimi Walters.
6) In CA-39, Gil Cisneros (D) is within 1.6% (2700 votes) of Young Kim (Ed Royce's old seat).

There is a strong chance the Democrats could end up flipping all 6 of the "close" races, and wind up with 45 of California's 53 seats.

[revo]

Dopey Donnie Boy is floating conspiracy theories and tweeting that Arizona should hold a re-election. Hey, let’s hold a re-election in Florida, and hey, why not, how about a redo of the 2016 election while we’re at it?

[DMT]

Dopey Donnie Boy is floating conspiracy theories and tweeting that Arizona should hold a re-election. Hey, let’s hold a re-election in Florida, and hey, why not, how about a redo of the 2016 election while we’re at it?

All just attempts to distract from the shellacking his party just took.

[Bernie Brewer]

All just attempts to distract from the shellacking his party just took.

I’ll admit I saw this on twitter but I don’t know how to link a tweet into this thread. I thought it was interesting, particularly after the “shellacking” the GOP took in the midterms.

Republicans lost the House last night. Today there are no riots, no protests, no videos of large groups of voters sobbing uncontrollably, no grief counselors sent to schools, no celebrities threatening to move to Canada, no property was destroyed, no cars overturned, nothing set on fire.

No outrage, no drama. Life goes on even if you didn’t get what you wanted. Let’s hope others can learn from this example.

I don’t know who the writer is so I’m not endorsing him or her, I’m just saying this is insightful.

[revo]

I’ll admit I saw this on twitter but I don’t know how to link a tweet into this thread. I thought it was interesting, particularly after the “shellacking” the GOP took in the midterms.



I don’t know who the writer is so I’m not endorsing him or her, I’m just saying this is insightful.

Is it? Taking the House is like coming in 3rd place. Yay, we got the Bronze!

[DMT]

I’ll admit I saw this on twitter but I don’t know how to link a tweet into this thread. I thought it was interesting, particularly after the “shellacking” the GOP took in the midterms.



I don’t know who the writer is so I’m not endorsing him or her, I’m just saying this is insightful.

Trump is whining about fraud and even mentioned having a new election. Rick Scott ditto, and Republicans protesting at the vote count. AZ Republicans filed lawsuits. You claim you're not endorsing but by calling it "insightful" it sure seems like you are.

[gcstomp]

trump, scott, rubio are absolutely dangerously unhinged with yowling about fruad, corruption, theft by crooked liberals in democrats simply wanting the counts to be completed. and to call it such when there is zero factual basis of fraud, why not openly call for the next crazed gunman to make his mark at a town near you. just terribly dangerous stuff happening.

i mean, having the votes count isnt a radical idea. trump wants a re vote in arizona, thats a new level of not at all how this works stupid.

[cardboardbox]

I don’t know who the writer is so I’m not endorsing him or her, I’m just saying this is insightful.

good post, and very, very true.

[Bernie Brewer]

trump, scott, rubio are absolutely dangerously unhinged with yowling about fruad, corruption, theft by crooked liberals in democrats simply wanting the counts to be completed. and to call it such when there is zero factual basis of fraud, why not openly call for the next crazed gunman to make his mark at a town near you. just terribly dangerous stuff happening.

i mean, having the votes count isnt a radical idea. trump wants a re vote in arizona, thats a new level of not at all how this works stupid.

Yup rioting in the streets cars burning. People weeping. It’s almost the same as 2016.

[gcstomp]

Yup rioting in the streets cars burning. People weeping. It’s almost the same as 2016.

This is odd, you are putting word after word of nonsense that you know is not true nor relevant to anything, down to make the point that what? the kind of reaction from one part of history/event is different than another (election of a clearly racist(build wall, make mexico pay), misogynist (grab her by the...) idiot should provoke a different reaction than a mixed midterm . we can review that we are now in a more deadly time, with again and again radical republican deranged white men sending bombs or shooting up synagogues at accelerated rates of coocoopuffs craziness, but this is different and better because fewer people are weeping about this election cycle? well, the people in charge are yelling fire, err fraud, baseless but dangerous to conflate that states with record voter participation and are taking longer than we would like to count ballots, are in some way stealing an election and there is fraud involved. florida will be another week yet as a hand re count will take that long.

[frae]

Yup rioting in the streets cars burning. People weeping. It’s almost the same as 2016.

My thought would be when Clinton lost our party leaders did not cry voter fraud in pa mi oh and wi. The president and the senator are questioning the validity of election results and that is a bedrock of our democracy. . We later talked about Russian influence but not vote stealing or voter fraud which continues to be a thing that doesn’t exist.

[DMT]

Bernie is trying to pretend he's non-partisan and failing miserably.

[Bernie Brewer]

My thought would be when Clinton lost our party leaders did not cry voter fraud in pa mi oh and wi. The president and the senator are questioning the validity of election results and that is a bedrock of our democracy. . We later talked about Russian influence but not vote stealing or voter fraud which continues to be a thing that doesn’t exist.

Are you sure that didn’t happen because I seem to kinda recall it did. And this has nothing to do with burning cars and rioting, sorry protesting.