Official Postseason Discussion Thread

[Pogues]

hey, a good brain flex is healthy once in a while .

agreed that it's not 50/50. what would be very interesting is to take, say, the vegas odds and use that as the "expected" outcome for each game, then see how long you expect the series to last. some series are much more evenly matched than others, for sure. at least on paper.

Thanks to Feral...I initially read that as "vegan odds".

[The Dane]

I have a twin brother, and it happens that we married women who share their birthdays as well (though born in different years).

My ex and I had parents with the same birthdays. Her dad and my mom were born on the same day, and my dad and her mom shared the same birthday but were born on different years. My girlfriend in Alaska had the same phone number as me, but just with a different area code.

[ironfist]

My wife and I have the same birthday, too (not the same year though)

[virgonomic]

For winning in 5, 6, or 7 games I think you need to multiply by one more factor of 0.5 (for the given team to win the last game). Then if you add up the probability of winning in 4, 5, 6, or 7 games it equals 0.5

That is correct.

And we assumed that each team had a 0.5 probability of winning. In real life this is generally not the case, so once you start looking at real data that goes out the window. It would be hard to quantify the probability of each team winning. Season series? Season wins? WPCT?

[Pogues]

My wife and I have the same birthday, too (not the same year though)

My wife worked with a woman with the same name as her. Both married, so Hendricks wasn't their birth name. They shared a birthday.

[Judge Jude]

fyi, the odds on most of these is 365.25 to 1

the first person has to have one of those birthdays, and the 2nd one has only that many possibilities

so a significant number of twins would have wives who have the same birthday (well, 3 or so out of 1,000)

I have met few people who seem to grasp this, so for fun I mention this "impossible" fact

[Judge Jude]

My wife and I have the same birthday, too (not the same year though)

says the 2-time 17-0 Survivor champ

I say we try to drown him just to see if ....

[madducks]

Meanwhile, back on the baseball diamond: The Royals just keep on winning.

[onejayhawk]

fyi, the odds on most of these is 365.25 to 1

the first person has to have one of those birthdays, and the 2nd one has only that many possibilities

so a significant number of twins would have wives who have the same birthday (well, 3 or so out of 1,000)

I have met few people who seem to grasp this, so for fun I mention this "impossible" fact

That would be the probability. Odds would be 364.25 to one.

My father and my aunt (his sister in law) have the same birthday as me. The group of people needed to give even odds of a pair is 26 IIRC. Half (or more) of the country's classrooms have two children with the the same birthday.

None of this explains why we have so many 7 game Series.

[chancellor]

Best twitter quote from Game 3, Jason Catania:

If I'm Ned Yost, I'm starting Wade Davis is Game 5 and just convincing him to think of it as nine separate 8th innings.

[onejayhawk]

Who remembers the 1990 bullpen of Myers, Dibble and Charlton? Is this trio close to that level?

J

[heyelander]

Who remembers the 1990 bullpen of Myers, Dibble and Charlton? Is this trio close to that level?

J

I once tried to find a picture of the three of them for the Moonlight J thread. FYI, Nasty Boys is a NSFW or even home Google search. Another FBI watch list this board has gotten me on.

[virgonomic]

That would be the probability. Odds would be 364.25 to one.

My father and my aunt (his sister in law) have the same birthday as me. The group of people needed to give even odds of a pair is 26 IIRC. Half (or more) of the country's classrooms have two children with the the same birthday.

23 is the Magic Number for the Birthday Paradox. I like to make that bet with my grade 12 stats class but they usually know if two of them have the same birthday.

[virgonomic]

I once tried to find a picture of the three of them for the Moonlight J thread. FYI, Nasty Boys is a NSFW or even home Google search. Another FBI watch list this board has gotten me on.

"reds nasty boys" got me several pictures of them.

"nasty boys" got me a screen full of WWF pictures.

[chancellor]

Who remembers the 1990 bullpen of Myers, Dibble and Charlton? Is this trio close to that level?

J

No. Nothing against the Royals, but that back end won't ever be matched, IMO.