Originally posted by eldiablo505
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"You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper
"One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski
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The price to own Madbum has skyrocketed."I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."
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and I'll be seeing how good MLB coverage is in China and Australia......"You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper
"One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski
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Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post"20-1 is too high. There are eight possible outcomes. They occur in roughly equal proportions. The odds on a sweep by a given team is 8-1, absent other considerations. I doubt 20-1 is ever justified."
I wasn't a math major, but that doesn't seem right, forget about tonight.
At 0.5 probability of a win:
A sweep can only happen one way: 4 straight wins. The probability is (0.5)^4 = 0.0625.
Winning in 5 games can happen C(4, 1) = 4 ways because the loser must win game 1, 2, 3, or 4.
So the probability is 4(0.5)^4.
Winning in 6 games can happen C(5, 2) = 10 ways because the losing team must win 2 of the first 5 games.
Probability 10(0.5)^5
Winning in 7 games can happen C(6, 3) = 20 ways because the losing team must win 3 of the first 6 games.
Probability 20(0.5)^6
So at 50-50, a longer series is more probable.
Ottawa Triple Eh's | P.I.M.P.S. | 14 team keep forever
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Originally posted by virgonomic View PostTruth. It's a binomial probability distribution.
At 0.5 probability of a win:
A sweep can only happen one way: 4 straight wins. The probability is (0.5)^4 = 0.0625.
Winning in 5 games can happen C(4, 1) = 4 ways because the loser must win game 1, 2, 3, or 4.
So the probability is 4(0.5)^4.
Winning in 6 games can happen C(5, 2) = 10 ways because the losing team must win 2 of the first 5 games.
Probability 10(0.5)^5
Winning in 7 games can happen C(6, 3) = 20 ways because the losing team must win 3 of the first 6 games.
Probability 20(0.5)^6
So at 50-50, a longer series is more probable.---------------------------------------------
Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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I was a math major, but that does not enter into it. The distribution is not close to a bell. By observation, sweeps occur more often than a 50/50 chance would occur. For example, from 1953-2002 you get
Gms Times
4 | 8
5 | 8
6 | 10
7 | 24
Why? Certainly the chances of winning game 2, given that you won game 1, would seem to be better than even. Momentum could be a factor, though some statisticians claim there is no such thing. Bottom line, I don't know. A normal (bell) distribution would result in 7 games series at 31.25%, or 15 to 16 out of 50. There are far more than that. The tendency is either blow outs or cliffhangers.
Originally posted by joncarlos View PostWell, that ROYALLY sucked.
I'll be here all week.
So much for the sweeps. Does anyone want to bet three straight in SF?
JLast edited by onejayhawk; 10-23-2014, 10:01 AM.Ad Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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something's not right. there have been more than 50 world series played.
and the fact that it doesn't match the theoretical probability is just because it's not a large enough sample. statistical clumping is at work...
you can easily simulate this, and if you use enough trials, you'll get the expected 12.5%, 25%, 31.25%, 31.25% distribution. but if you only use 100 trials, you will regularly get numbers like 5% or 45%. i just ran 1000 trials of 100 series each, and get the following:
Code:games expected minimum maximum ----- -------- ------- ------- 4 12.5% 2% 22% 5 25.0% 11% 40% 6 31.25% 18% 47% 7 31.25% 18% 47%
"Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann
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Originally posted by bryanbutler View Postsomething's not right. there have been more than 50 world series played.
and the fact that it doesn't match the theoretical probability is just because it's not a large enough sample. statistical clumping is at work...
you can easily simulate this, and if you use enough trials, you'll get the expected 12.5%, 25%, 31.25%, 31.25% distribution. but if you only use 100 trials, you will regularly get numbers like 5% or 45%. i just ran 1000 trials of 100 series each, and get the following:
Code:games expected minimum maximum ----- -------- ------- ------- 4 12.5% 2% 22% 5 25.0% 11% 40% 6 31.25% 18% 47% 7 31.25% 18% 47%
There was nothng magical bout that 50 years. It was the most recent 50 WS at the time of the article. Both sweeps and seven game series are much more common than expected. I suspect it has more to do with conditional probabilities than we are allowing. For example, the probability of a sweep, given winning the first two games, would be 25% in a 50/50 scenario. I suspect it is more like 50%.
JAd Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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the fact that if you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up tails 8 of the 10, when you "expect" 5, doesn't mean tails is "much more common than expected." it just means you didn't flip the coin often enough."Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann
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Originally posted by onejayhawk View Post20-1 is too high. There are eight possible outcomes. They occur in roughly equal proportions. The odds on a sweep by a given team is 8-1, absent other considerations. I doubt 20-1 is ever justified.
J
stead of arguing about conditional probabilities.---------------------------------------------
Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
---------------------------------------------
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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You all can talk about probabilities when it come to how long a series will go in baseball, but playing baseball games isn't like flipping a coin or drawing a card from a deck of cards. It's quite possible to never get to "expected outcome" because it's more than just pure chance as to who wins a game, and who wins 4 games first.
So really, this conversation is just you guys flexing your brains.Considering his only baseball post in the past year was bringing up a 3 year old thread to taunt Hornsby and he's never contributed a dime to our hatpass, perhaps?
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Originally posted by Pogues View PostYou all can talk about probabilities when it come to how long a series will go in baseball, but playing baseball games isn't like flipping a coin or drawing a card from a deck of cards. It's quite possible to never get to "expected outcome" because it's more than just pure chance as to who wins a game, and who wins 4 games first.
So really, this conversation is just you guys flexing your brains.---------------------------------------------
Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
---------------------------------------------
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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I have a twin brother, and it happens that we married women who share their birthdays as well (though born in different years).
It's amusing, but people seem to think it's about a 10 million to 1 shot when in fact I think it's what, a 9th grade math question?
The gals were born 180 days apart from our birthdays, which astrology fans would love, I guess.finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
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RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1
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Originally posted by Pogues View PostSo really, this conversation is just you guys flexing your brains.
agreed that it's not 50/50. what would be very interesting is to take, say, the vegas odds and use that as the "expected" outcome for each game, then see how long you expect the series to last. some series are much more evenly matched than others, for sure. at least on paper."Instead of all of this energy and effort directed at the war to end drugs, how about a little attention to drugs which will end war?" Albert Hofmann
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