Jon Singleton called up - and signs 5 year contract

[wannabegriffey]

I wonder what the people down on this deal would have said had Mike Moose-taco signed the same type of deal a couple of seasons back?

[cardboardbox]

I'm not getting pissy at all, it's just that this has become a typical internet argument...you cherry-pick your stats and arguments, I cherry-pick mine. You bring in other players as red herrings, I try to counter using their stats...it's a never ending cycle of futility.

I think it's a bad deal, you don't. Where can we go from there that we already haven't? I haven't convinced you in 3 pages, and you haven't convinced me...so why keep dragging it out? Thus, end of discussion as far as I'm concerned.

I've provided clear evidence that shows Singleton is not getting a super awful deal as you say he is. Other players are not massively outearning him through their first 8 seasons. Some will make less. You've provided nothing to support your position.

Which players have made or will make significantly more through their first 5 and first 8 seasons?

Scherzer made $32.6M through his first 8 seasons of major league contracts (he signed a major league contract after being drafted).

Austin Jackson made $10.84M through first 5 season and this includes an extra arb eligible year.

Starlin Castro will make about $50M through 8 seasons! If you take out the SS premium I'm thinking this one might still be over $35M.

Samardzija $21M through 8 seasons.

Longoria $36M through 8 seasons.

Votto $9.7M through first 5 seasons, $52M through first 8. If Singleton ends up as good as Votto, I will gladly be wrong.

Bruce $9.3M through 5 seasons, $39M through 8.

Yadier $23M through 8.

Allen Craig is a good comparison, he was also drafted in the 8th round. $31M through 8.

[cardboardbox]

I wonder what the people down on this deal would have said had Mike Moose-taco's signed the same type of deal a couple of seasons back?

Horns would have cried foul and called for the MLBPA to ban these superawful terrible contracts!

I wonder if KC cuts him loose after this season, cant really imagine it seeing as he was the 2nd pick in the draft that year. He's in a little different situation than Singleton as he only made $2M in major league salary but also received a $4M signing bonus.

[Hornsby]

The industry reaction:

The Astros finally got one.
Third baseman Matt Dominguez and outfielders Robbie Grossman and George Springer rejected the club’s below-market extension offers, but on Monday first baseman Jonathan Singleton accepted, agreeing to a five-year, $10 million deal with three team options that could increase the total value to $30 million.

Many fans, upon seeing that kind of historic guarantee for a player who has yet to appear in the majors, say, “Of course he should take it!” But rival agents flipped after learning of Singleton’s deal, believing he sold himself short.
“I’m speechless,” one such agent said.
Singleton’s representatives at Sosnick Cobbe Sports will point to the potential for the player to make $17 million before free agency if his first two options are exercised, plus another $13 million in his first year of free agency on the third option.
But look closer.
While Singleton got more upfront money in his pre-arbitration years, his first club option is for $2.5 million. That number is strikingly low, considering that it covers Singleton’s second year of arbitration — in 2019.
The Mariners’ Justin Smoak, a below-average first baseman, cleared $2.5 million in his first year of arbitration this season. And historically, salaries only rise. The Marlins’ Garrett Jones, who had the benefit of an extra year of arbitration but was non-tendered over the winter, will earn more than $15 million before free agency, not far off Singleton’s potential number.
As one agent said, noting that the average major-league salary is $3.39 million, “If Singleton is the MVP eight straight years, his total earnings will be $3 million over what the average salary is now times eight. When you factor in what will be the increases in average salary that occur over the next eight years, he won’t even earn an amount equal to what the average salary will be over those eight years.”

Position players face less risk for injury than pitchers, and from a performance standpoint, Singleton is close to a sure thing. First-base prospects occasionally flop — think Jason Stokes, Michael Aubrey, Lars Anderson — but almost all make it to arbitration. What’s more, young, power-hitting first basemen currently are in short supply.

Singleton, 22, entered the season as the game’s No. 82 prospect, according to Baseball America. Only two other first basemen made the publication’s top 100 — and one was the White Sox’s Jose Abreu, a Cuban defector.
Ah, but some cite Singleton’s past issues with marijuana, which supposedly increased the Astros’ risk and perhaps swayed Singleton in his decision to accept the $10 million guarantee.
Rival agents scoff at such concerns, even though Singleton was suspended 50 games in the minors after testing positive for marijuana at the start of last season and spent a month in a rehabilitation center.
Though players on 40-man rosters are not ordinarily tested for marijuana, circumstances exist in which major leaguers can be tested.
It is not clear whether Singleton would be subject to testing as part of a treatment program. But practically speaking, the chances of his being disciplined are slim and maybe even none.
Yes, Singleton described himself in spring training as a marijuana addict, but in the major leagues he hardly will be the only user. A healthy percentage of major leaguers smoke weed, as does a healthy percentage of the general population.

Give the Astros credit — they preyed on the insecurity of Singleton and his agents to secure his seven years of club control for $17 million. The team, at least, made a wise business decision. The player, in the opinion of many, need not have jumped.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/rockies-should-trade-carlos-gonzalez-troy-tulowitzki-not-winning-with-both-build-winner-060314

[cardboardbox]

The industry reaction:[/url]

so which similar players signed a contract that you approve of?

[Kevin Seitzer]

From Craig Goldstein today at BPro on Singleton's fantasy impact:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23777

A full-season outlook could see him produce something in the .245/.340/.475 slash line range, with the average potentially on the low end and the OBP on the high end in that scenario. There’s no speed to be found here, and context-dependent counting stats will be hard to come by in Houston, despite George Springer’s presence, but the skills are there for Singleton to be a late-round value at first base.

I feel like people are a little behind the curve on the state of the Houston offense. Is everyone still streaming starting pitchers when they start against the Astros? Houston has the 11th-best OPS in MLB since April 20 (among the 30 teams, removing pitcher hitting), and that's without Singleton in the lineup. Team OBP is .333 in that time frame. This offense is not as anemic as it once was.

[Gregg]

For us Singleton owners, it was a pretty nice 1st game. Go Jonny Go!!

[cavebird]

so which similar players signed a contract that you approve of?

I think that is the thing---the only contracts signed are team friendly because the team has no need to offer a market value contract---they can go year to year for that. If all of your comparisons are contracts, then of course they would be similar (and if old enough less, as salaries inflate over time). If you compared what the contract guys make with guys that went year to year made, that is where the question of leaving money on the table lies.

FWIW, the article he posted was interesting, but I highly question the conclusion that Singleton "is close to a sure thing." I guess if you mean making it to an okay level like say Smoak; sure. But to be a star? Not sure where they got that from. Then again they said, he would at least make it to arbitration, so maybe that's all they meant, but still.

[cardboardbox]

I think that is the thing---the only contracts signed are team friendly because the team has no need to offer a market value contract---they can go year to year for that. If all of your comparisons are contracts, then of course they would be similar (and if old enough less, as salaries inflate over time). If you compared what the contract guys make with guys that went year to year made, that is where the question of leaving money on the table lies.

I'd still love to hear what the horns approved contracts are. If this one is so terrible, he must hate half the contracts players sign with less than 3 years service time. Even players that dont sign contracts until they are free agents are generally not significantly out earning what Singleton can make in 8 years.

FWIW, the article he posted was interesting, but I highly question the conclusion that Singleton "is close to a sure thing." I guess if you mean making it to an okay level like say Smoak; sure. But to be a star? Not sure where they got that from. Then again they said, he would at least make it to arbitration, so maybe that's all they meant, but still.

yeah I saw that and thought the same thing but chose to focus on finding out what the horns approved contracts were. Smoak was a much higher rated prospect than Singleton. Law had Smoak 9th in 2010!! Singleton is somewhere in the 80s.

[Mithrandir]

From Craig Goldstein today at BPro on Singleton's fantasy impact:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23777

I feel like people are a little behind the curve on the state of the Houston offense. Is everyone still streaming starting pitchers when they start against the Astros? Houston has the 11th-best OPS in MLB since April 20 (among the 30 teams, removing pitcher hitting), and that's without Singleton in the lineup. Team OBP is .333 in that time frame. This offense is not as anemic as it once was.

I know. My pitchers seem to get hit hard when they face Houston. I am sitting Richards tonight against them.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I know. My pitchers seem to get hit hard when they face Houston. I am sitting Richards tonight against them.

We hit him fairly hard last time we faced him, but he's a pretty darn good pitcher. You really have the luxury to sit him? I love our players and our coaches to death, but I'm not claiming we're some sort of unparalleled offensive juggernaut now, just that people shouldn't underestimate us and assume that we're an easy opponent anymore.

[Mithrandir]

We hit him fairly hard last time we faced him, but he's a pretty darn good pitcher. You really have the luxury to sit him? I love our players and our coaches to death, but I'm not claiming we're some sort of unparalleled offensive juggernaut now, just that people shouldn't underestimate us and assume that we're an easy opponent anymore.

1500 IP limit in my 14 team league. I also have Waino, MadBum, Grienke, J Zimm so i can afford to sit him every once in a while.

[cavebird]

I'd still love to hear what the horns approved contracts are. If this one is so terrible, he must hate half the contracts players sign with less than 3 years service time. Even players that dont sign contracts until they are free agents are generally not significantly out earning what Singleton can make in 8 years.

yeah I saw that and thought the same thing but chose to focus on finding out what the horns approved contracts were. Smoak was a much higher rated prospect than Singleton. Law had Smoak 9th in 2010!! Singleton is somewhere in the 80s.

I don't think the question is this contract versus other contracts. It is this contract, like other contracts for pre-arbitration players, versus going year-to-year. All of these contracts will be team friendly---with team control a given, the only reason for the team to guarantee money up front is to get a discount. So, asking for a Horns approved contract for a pre-arb player is a red herring question. Showing similar type players who went year to year and made not that much more money, however, would make you point strongly. I wonder where Smoak is at. He's sort of a "Singleton doesn't do that well, but isn't horrific" kind of comp.

[cardboardbox]

I don't think the question is this contract versus other contracts. It is this contract, like other contracts for pre-arbitration players, versus going year-to-year. All of these contracts will be team friendly---with team control a given, the only reason for the team to guarantee money up front is to get a discount. So, asking for a Horns approved contract for a pre-arb player is a red herring question. Showing similar type players who went year to year and made not that much more money, however, would make you point strongly. I wonder where Smoak is at. He's sort of a "Singleton doesn't do that well, but isn't horrific" kind of comp.

I dont think its a red herring. He complained about this contract, not all pre-arb contracts in general. If he thinks all pre-arb contracts are awful, then that's a different discussion and one I believe he'd be on the wrong side also. From the player's perspective, its about getting paid now and reducing risk in exchange for making more money later. But the only way Singleton becomes vastly underpaid is like you said, he becomes a superstar. If he's just average or pretty good, then he isnt losing much. If he turns into Smoak, then he will come out comfortably ahead as Smoak will make $4.5M through 5 seasons.

[Mithrandir]

i know. My pitchers seem to get hit hard when they face houston. I am sitting richards tonight against them.

oops....