Jon Singleton called up - and signs 5 year contract

[revo]

I think you all are right -- $10m guaranteed for 5 years isn't great for a top prospect like Singleton, not when the elite young players sign their first big deal in Year 4 (and at today's rates, that could be a deal like Jason Kipnis signed for, $52m over 4 yrs), but when you take into account his drug problem, it makes a lot of sense for him.

[Hornsby]

Can you back that up? If not for this contract he'd make the minimum from now through 2017 and then he'd get one arb year. I assume he'd need around 6 mil in that one arb year to make the 5 years = 10 mil.

Or he could be a bust and out of the majors in 4 years. Remember Brett Wallace? He was highly regarded, maybe not quite as high as Singleton was but I think maybe top 30 or 40 in his rookie year. Played for 4 years for the Astros and then was cut loose. Signed a minor league contract with Baltimore this past offseason.

And if he does reasonably well, he'd get a lot more than the minimum...it just stands to reason. Sure, the continuum is everything from bust to star, and all points in-between...he's likely to fall somewhere in the middle, which means that he'd earn more if he just agreed to go year to year. The Astros wouldn't have offered a multi year deal, no matter how much in their favor, if they didn't think that Singleton would succeed reasonably well.

Houston is playing with house money...nothing on the line and everything to gain. He would have to be a spectacular bust for this not to be a total win for the Astros...

[Mithrandir]

I've been reading for a month about Jackson's better Contact% and SwStr% and FB%, but he's been atrocious in spite of all of that. What good are all these percentages if he's going to bat .200 for the month of May?

Those sabermetrics seem to mean squat when it comes to predicting the future performances of players.

[cardboardbox]

I think you all are right -- $10m guaranteed for 5 years isn't great for a top prospect like Singleton, not when the elite young players sign their first big deal in Year 4 (and at today's rates, that could be a deal like Jason Kipnis signed for, $52m over 4 yrs), but when you take into account his drug problem, it makes a lot of sense for him.

In his first 5 years in the majors Kipnis will make about $7.47 mil. The three years after that are $28.5 million. His first 8 years = $36 million. Thats just $1M more than Singleton can make in 8 years. The difference? The Astros can get out of the last 3 years if Singleton sucks but cannot get out of the first 5 years if Singleton decides he would rather smoke weed than hit baseballs. With Kipnis, Cleveland got to see what they had in the majors for 2.5 seasons before committing to a big contract.

[cardboardbox]

And if he does reasonably well, he'd get a lot more than the minimum...it just stands to reason.

Only if the Astros wanted to pay more.

Sure, the continuum is everything from bust to star, and all points in-between...he's likely to fall somewhere in the middle, which means that he'd earn more if he just agreed to go year to year.

I might believe that if you could show me the 1st year arb numbers for players you think Singleton will be similar to. I dont know who to look at because it seems everyone who is any good signs long term contracts before reaching arb years.

The Astros wouldn't have offered a multi year deal, no matter how much in their favor, if they didn't think that Singleton would succeed reasonably well.

Absolutely! And Singleton and his agent could have said no thanks!

[Hornsby]

Absolutely! And Singleton and his agent could have said no thanks!

Which is why the MLBPA should try to get this included in the next bargaining session...these kids have no idea what they might be worth, and they're led down the garden path by an agent that may not have his best interests in mind.

And again, you make my point...anyone who's any good signs a lucrative long term deal to buy out their arb years and at least one free agent year. This is NOT a lucrative deal for the player...

[revo]

In his first 5 years in the majors Kipnis will make about $7.47 mil. The three years after that are $28.5 million. His first 8 years = $36 million. Thats just $1M more than Singleton can make in 8 years. The difference? The Astros can get out of the last 3 years if Singleton sucks but cannot get out of the first 5 years if Singleton decides he would rather smoke weed than hit baseballs. With Kipnis, Cleveland got to see what they had in the majors for 2.5 seasons before committing to a big contract.

I have different figures from Cot's (and granted, Kipnis was just an eyeball player from one of the first teams I looked at, no other rhyme or reason there):
2011 -- played two months, lg minimum
2012 -- $0.4821
2013 -- $0.509
2014 -- $3m ($2m + $1m signing bonus)
2015 -- $4m
2016 -- $6m

So if you take the two months of 2011 at 2/5ths of minimum, that's $200k + 3/5ths of 2016, that's $3.6m, for a total of $3.8m for that full 5th year. So the total I get for him is $482k + $509k + $3m + $4m + $3.6m for a total of $11.6m, or an average of $2.32m.

[cardboardbox]

And again, you make my point...anyone who's any good signs a lucrative long term deal to buy out their arb years and at least one free agent year. This is NOT a lucrative deal for the player...

If everyone's doing it, why do you think its so terrible for the players?

[cardboardbox]

I have different figures from Cot's (and granted, Kipnis was just an eyeball player from one of the first teams I looked at, no other rhyme or reason there):
2011 -- played two months, lg minimum
2012 -- $0.4821
2013 -- $0.509
2014 -- $3m ($2m + $1m signing bonus)
2015 -- $4m
2016 -- $6m

So if you take the two months of 2011 at 2/5ths of minimum, that's $200k + 3/5ths of 2016, that's $3.6m, for a total of $3.8m for that full 5th year. So the total I get for him is $482k + $509k + $3m + $4m + $3.6m for a total of $11.6m, or an average of $2.32m.

I missed the signing bonus and I just counted 2012 twice rather than calculate a partial season. But you cant take 3/5 of 2016 to make it 5 full seasons. Even though we are calling it a 5 year contract, I'm certain Singleton's 5th year will end following the end of the 2018 season rather than on 6/2/19.

[Don Quixote]

He was an 8th round draft pick from a high school in Long Beach. For someone coming from that far back on the baseball food chain, $10 million guaranteed is incredible money. Consider how far he's come when you deride the contract he just signed.

[overkill94]

Which is why the MLBPA should try to get this included in the next bargaining session...these kids have no idea what they might be worth, and they're led down the garden path by an agent that may not have his best interests in mind.

And again, you make my point...anyone who's any good signs a lucrative long term deal to buy out their arb years and at least one free agent year. This is NOT a lucrative deal for the player...

Considering the fact that baseball players have it way sweeter than football players (and to some extent basketball players) is enough for me to applaud Singleton for making this deal. It blows my mind that baseball has guaranteed contracts but not football.

[Hornsby]

If everyone's doing it, why do you think its so terrible for the players?

Because they usually wait until they establish themselves, and have some leverage over the company...in this case, Singleton has none of that, and, IMO, settled for a sub-par deal.

[gcstomp]

From Singleton's side, it is a deal I dont think someone with an over riding strong sense of their future value with expectation of being all-star level would agree to. If Singeton intends to maybe take it easy now and party a bit because he hit his life changing money signing then he did super duper uber nuts great. We would all love to make such a bad deal.

[whalewang]

And after this contract is up he will be in his prime (29?) and will be able to score one huge contract if he is good. Take the guaranteed money now to set you up for life and then you can score that lottery money later. It's a win-win for the player and team imo.

[cavebird]

Which is why the MLBPA should try to get this included in the next bargaining session...these kids have no idea what they might be worth, and they're led down the garden path by an agent that may not have his best interests in mind.

And again, you make my point...anyone who's any good signs a lucrative long term deal to buy out their arb years and at least one free agent year. This is NOT a lucrative deal for the player...

Generally, the more money a player makes, the more money the agent makes. Thus, while agents are hardly saints always looking out for the best interests of the player, their interests generally are the same. I did read something about the agent involved being accused of getting players in long term deals so they can't just ship to another agent, but the MLBPA is usually pretty good about policing agents---at least to the extent that they think the agents are hurting players. I would think this is more risk aversion on Singleton's part. He gets 10 million guaranteed (half a million is a buyout of the first option, so if options are picked up it is only 9.5 through the first arb season) which is only through the first arbitration season, then another $7 million for the last two arbitration seasons (if the options are picked up) and $13 million for his first free agent season. Yes, it is low for three years if he becomes a superstar. But that's the only downside for him---the $9.5 million through the first four years is more than he likely would have gotten otherwise (b/c only one arb season), and then he gets $20 million for three years instead of what could have been say $40 million or $50 million if he is a superstar. Then he still becomes a free agent young enough to get a huge contract if he is a superstar.

It is a good deal for the Astros, but I can see what Singleton sees in it. He only loses on this deal if he becomes a healthy superstar. And if that happens, he still gets $29.5 million (plus up to $5 million in incentives) and becomes a free agent under the age of 30.