Jon Singleton called up - and signs 5 year contract

[Gregg]

If he is lights out the contract will be renegotiated and extended before this first one ever reaches it's conclusion.

[cardboardbox]

Because they usually wait until they establish themselves, and have some leverage over the company...in this case, Singleton has none of that, and, IMO, settled for a sub-par deal.

And yet, in Revo's example, the first 8 years of Kipnis' career will end up around $37 million, just two more than Singleton even though he was very established and according to you should have had leverage.

[cardboardbox]

He only loses on this deal if he becomes a healthy superstar. And if that happens, he still gets $29.5 million (plus up to $5 million in incentives) and becomes a free agent under the age of 30.

this.

[cavebird]

this.

The Astros sensibly take a risk that he's a bust (and they are only on the hook for $10 million then) and get great value if he is good. Singleton leaves a potential $20 million on the table, but if he does, he'll make far, far more than that over his career. It is sensible risk aversion from him. And he never has to work a day in his life now at anything other than playing baseball. If I could suffer this way.

[TranaGreg]

The Astros sensibly take a risk that he's a bust (and they are only on the hook for $10 million then) and get great value if he is good. Singleton leaves a potential $20 million on the table, but if he does, he'll make far, far more than that over his career. It is sensible risk aversion from him. And he never has to work a day in his life now at anything other than playing baseball. If I could suffer this way.

I was just about to post that I agree 100%, when I realized that this assumes that he manages his money properly ... of course, this would/will be a factor regardless of contract.

[Erik]

How much weed can you get for $35 million?

[TranaGreg]

How much weed can you get for $35 million?

that would explain why his no trade list is every team except for the Rockies & the Mariners.

[Hornsby]

The Astros sensibly take a risk that he's a bust (and they are only on the hook for $10 million then) and get great value if he is good. Singleton leaves a potential $20 million on the table, but if he does, he'll make far, far more than that over his career. It is sensible risk aversion from him. And he never has to work a day in his life now at anything other than playing baseball. If I could suffer this way.

And right there is the crux of the issue, that's money left on the table that can NEVER be made up. If he becomes a superstar, he'll get a great contract regardless, he'll make a ton the rest of his career, but he'll always be that 20 million or so shy.

And apparently, the MLBPA may have said something prior to the contract being signed...Bud Norris had this tweet late night:

Bud Norris @BudNorris25 · 12h

Sorry but this Singleton deal is terrible. Wish the Jon listened to the union and not his agent.

It'll be interesting to see what, if anything, comes out in the coming days.

[cavebird]

It's a tricky situation. I can see the point of both the union and the player here. It makes sense as risk aversion for Singleton to leave the possible $20 million or so on the table. The union, as the collective voice of the players, would not have such an incentive, because if Singleton turns out being a bust, someone will likely breakout and that $20 million will still go to the players collectively.

[cardboardbox]

And right there is the crux of the issue, that's money left on the table that can NEVER be made up. If he becomes a superstar, he'll get a great contract regardless, he'll make a ton the rest of his career, but he'll always be that 20 million or so shy.

And if he's a bust, he has an extra $5 million in his pocket that he never would have had otherwise. The chances of him being a bust or at least below avg is much greater than becoming a superstar.

And apparently, the MLBPA may have said something prior to the contract being signed...Bud Norris had this tweet late night:

Bud Norris has earned approx $10 mil in 6 seasons. Looks like he'll have one more arb year maybe around $7-8 million which will put his first seven years around $18M and if he can smoke and mirror his way through one more season he'll get maybe $12M/yr as a free agent? That still puts him below what Singleton will make if his options are picked up.

Will Singleton be as good as Rizzo? ~ 1.7 WAR/season? If so, did Rizzo sign a terrible contract also?

Rizzo will earn about $10M in his first 5 season. It seems everyone who signs a contract early in their career is getting about $10M over their first 5 years. Then Rizzo gets $19M over the next 3 years. Thats a total of $29 million over 8 years. This must be even worse than Singleton's contract right?

[Hornsby]

And if he's a bust, he has an extra $5 million in his pocket that he never would have had otherwise. The chances of him being a bust or at least below avg is much greater than becoming a superstar.

Bud Norris has earned approx $10 mil in 6 seasons. Looks like he'll have one more arb year maybe around $7-8 million which will put his first seven years around $18M and if he can smoke and mirror his way through one more season he'll get maybe $12M/yr as a free agent? That still puts him below what Singleton will make if his options are picked up.

Will Singleton be as good as Rizzo? ~ 1.7 WAR/season? If so, did Rizzo sign a terrible contract also?

Rizzo will earn about $10M in his first 5 season. It seems everyone who signs a contract early in their career is getting about $10M over their first 5 years. Then Rizzo gets $19M over the next 3 years. Thats a total of $29 million over 8 years. This must be even worse than Singleton's contract right?

Rizzo signed a 41 million dollar deal after his 1st season and a half, not including incentives...and he has club options for an additional 29 million. So for his 1st 8 1/2 seasons, he'll make roughly 42 million dollars in round figures...and could make an that a 70 million dollar deal if the Cubs pick up those options. So that's the kind of money that Singleton is potentially leaving on the table. Singletons deal really a 5 year deal for 10 million...period. The rest of it is club options that COULD bring it up to 30 million after 8 years, or the club can cut bait on him for the last 3 years for only 1 million. So they're essentially on the hook for only 11 million dollars...and we have no idea what those incentives are, or how hard they will be to attain.

You think that it's a fair deal, and I don't...we can twist numbers all day long and it doesn't matter.

[cardboardbox]

Rizzo signed a 41 million dollar deal after his 1st season and a half, not including incentives...and he has club options for an additional 29 million. So for his 1st 8 1/2 seasons, he'll make roughly 42 million dollars in round figures...and could make an that a 70 million dollar deal if the Cubs pick up those options. So that's the kind of money that Singleton is potentially leaving on the table. Singletons deal really a 5 year deal for 10 million...period. The rest of it is club options that COULD bring it up to 30 million after 8 years, or the club can cut bait on him for the last 3 years for only 1 million. So they're essentially on the hook for only 11 million dollars...and we have no idea what those incentives are, or how hard they will be to attain.

You think that it's a fair deal, and I don't...we can twist numbers all day long and it doesn't matter.

Rizzo will make about $29 million over his first 8 seasons. By your logic this was a terrible, awful contract right?

[Hornsby]

Rizzo will make about $29 million over his first 8 seasons. By your logic this was a terrible, awful contract right?

Again, Rizzo WILL make 29 million +, Singleton could make as little as 11 million.

This is the internet, you don't get it and I can't make you understand...end of discussion.

[cardboardbox]

Again, Rizzo WILL make 29 million +, Singleton could make as little as 11 million.

This is the internet, you don't get it and I can't make you understand...end of discussion.

We have a pretty small community here, I dont think its productive to get all pissy about this.

If Singleton makes only $11M its because he sucks and that $11M will have been more than he could have made without signing this contract. Rizzo will not make more than $29M in his first 8 seasons. He will make less than Singleton if the options are picked up.

Other than guys like Trout, who can you find that made more than $11M in his first 5 seasons and more than $35M in his first 8 seasons? I have a feeling its a short list.

Look at McCutchen. In his first 5 years he made $7.5M and in his first 8 years he's going to have made $38M. At a much more valuable position.

[Hornsby]

We have a pretty small community here, I dont think its productive to get all pissy about this.

If Singleton makes only $11M its because he sucks and that $11M will have been more than he could have made without signing this contract. Rizzo will not make more than $29M in his first 8 seasons. He will make less than Singleton if the options are picked up.

Other than guys like Trout, who can you find that made more than $11M in his first 5 seasons and more than $35M in his first 8 seasons? I have a feeling its a short list.

Look at McCutchen. In his first 5 years he made $7.5M and in his first 8 years he's going to have made $38M. At a much more valuable position.

I'm not getting pissy at all, it's just that this has become a typical internet argument...you cherry-pick your stats and arguments, I cherry-pick mine. You bring in other players as red herrings, I try to counter using their stats...it's a never ending cycle of futility.

I think it's a bad deal, you don't. Where can we go from there that we already haven't? I haven't convinced you in 3 pages, and you haven't convinced me...so why keep dragging it out? Thus, end of discussion as far as I'm concerned.