Official "Panic Button" Thread

[Sour Masher]

I thought I was buying low on Bobby Miller when I acquired him for his two start week. I knew he wasn't ready, but I made myself believe. Now I worry I vastly overpaid. I gave Walker Jenkins for him. I'm being horribly panned in our whatsapp. I got Jenkins for Matt Chapman and was attacked for taking advantage of the other owner. When I flipped Jenkins for Miller, I was laughed at. I think I may have really messed this one up. It wouldn't be the first time. This is the 3rd time in this league's 30 year history that I've won b2b championships. I've never won three in a row. I think my desperation to do so made me jump on a foolish deal. I should have waited for another dumper to give me something better. I was blinded by Miller being a cheap keeper. At this rate, I can't justify extending him, so that value may be non-existent.

[Ken]

I thought I was buying low on Bobby Miller when I acquired him for his two start week. I knew he wasn't ready, but I made myself believe. Now I worry I vastly overpaid. I gave Walker Jenkins for him. I'm being horribly panned in our whatsapp. I got Jenkins for Matt Chapman and was attacked for taking advantage of the other owner. When I flipped Jenkins for Miller, I was laughed at. I think I may have really messed this one up. It wouldn't be the first time. This is the 3rd time in this league's 30 year history that I've won b2b championships. I've never won three in a row. I think my desperation to do so made me jump on a foolish deal. I should have waited for another dumper to give me something better. I was blinded by Miller being a cheap keeper. At this rate, I can't justify extending him, so that value may be non-existent.

Huh? Your league mates are really strange. You've beat them twice in a row and they are saying out of both sides of their mouths that you are getting too much and too little in deals? It seems like a bunch of terrible league mates to play with. If they think you got beat in that trade I'd point to the last two trophies and tell them yeah, you're opinion is about as useful as your consecutive losses in this league.

In reality, Miller and Jenkins have very similar dynasty value based on some of the national lists, and given that you are going for it, it sounds like you made a great trade. Tell them to either beat you in the standings or keep quiet and own their lack of ability in fantasy.

[Sour Masher]

It's really just ancpuple.of very vocal owners. Typically they lament every deal I make and plead with the league to stop trading with me, which I don't mind so much, because it is validation I must be doing something right. This is the first time they have actually celebrated a deal I did and the first time others expressed I came up short. I guess I misjudged the market, which annoys me. The guy who deals me miller admitted he wpuld have given more if I had asked for more. Just a display on my part that is gonna bither me until if/when Miller comes around. Not a lot of sellers this year, which is great, but one or two pill sell eventually and I cpild have been patient and got an expiring Chris Sale instead of getting cute and trying to have it both ways trying to pick up long term value while lying to myself that I was also getting short term value to win this year. The arrogance of doing the deal while in 1st place by the thinnest of margins and then doubling down by starting miller dropped me oit of first. I am mostly just mad at myself l, but I am glad you still like Miller long term. The haters are saying his shoulder is the issue, which is in my head a bit.

[Ken]

It's really just ancpuple.of very vocal owners. Typically they lament every deal I make and plead with the league to stop trading with me, which I don't mind so much, because it is validation I must be doing something right. This is the first time they have actually celebrated a deal I did and the first time others expressed I came up short. I guess I misjudged the market, which annoys me. The guy who deals me miller admitted he wpuld have given more if I had asked for more. Just a display on my part that is gonna bither me until if/when Miller comes around. Not a lot of sellers this year, which is great, but one or two pill sell eventually and I cpild have been patient and got an expiring Chris Sale instead of getting cute and trying to have it both ways trying to pick up long term value while lying to myself that I was also getting short term value to win this year. The arrogance of doing the deal while in 1st place by the thinnest of margins and then doubling down by starting miller dropped me oit of first. I am mostly just mad at myself l, but I am glad you still like Miller long term. The haters are saying his shoulder is the issue, which is in my head a bit.

Sure his shoulder is a concern but he also has upside assuming he gets past that issue.

It's very strange to see that people would make an assumption that there's no doubt that Jenkins, who has only played at rookie ball and low A, and held his own but hasn't dominated, will become a star. Yet Bobby Miller, who is still young and already has 1 solid mlb season under him, has no chance at it.

The reality is that both have huge upside and both have obstacles to overcome. Their ven diagrams of potential are mostly overlapping - both of them could bust, both of them could dominate the league.

To take the side that Jenkins will definitely hit his ceiling and Miller will definitely just stay at his floor seems like the opinion coming from someone who loses their league a lot. Which checks out here.

[Todd Zola]

With respect to Carroll's shoulder, there is no evidence it's an issue, other than trying to blame it on his 2024 struggles.

Carroll missed a couple of games just before the ASB last season, but tests showed no issues. He slumped after the break (.209/.303/.365 in 32 games) but finished strong (.338/.400/.528 in 37 games). Carroll's .773 postseason OPS isn't great, but it's fine considering he was facing the best pitching in the league for most of the playoffs.

If the shoulder were an issue, it *should* have affected his numbers last season -- but it didn't.

FWIW, I also talked with an injury specialist who indicated from the available information, there was no need for long-term concern.

[Sour Masher]

Sure his shoulder is a concern but he also has upside assuming he gets past that issue.

It's very strange to see that people would make an assumption that there's no doubt that Jenkins, who has only played at rookie ball and low A, and held his own but hasn't dominated, will become a star. Yet Bobby Miller, who is still young and already has 1 solid mlb season under him, has no chance at it.

The reality is that both have huge upside and both have obstacles to overcome. Their ven diagrams of potential are mostly overlapping - both of them could bust, both of them could dominate the league.

To take the side that Jenkins will definitely hit his ceiling and Miller will definitely just stay at his floor seems like the opinion coming from someone who loses their league a lot. Which checks out here.

The reaction has more to do with the assumption that my acquiring Jenkins would lead to what usually happens when I acquire top prospects--I'd flip him for an elite expiring or overpriced player to help me win this year. A couple of guys who have come up short to me a few times and hope to compete this year were really mad that the guy gave up Jenkins for a guy at Matt Chapman's level (although, he desperately needed a 3b, I landed Chapman really cheap in the auction, and no one else would deal him a 3bman). I went against expectations in dealing him for a struggling longer term play and that made the other guys who don't want me to 3peat really happy. It is true they both way overvalue prospects, which is why I'm able to deal guys like Jenkins every year for the best guys from dumping teams. The league as a whole overvalues prospects, which I take advantage of. This time, I just think their reaction confirms I misplayed it. Not because of the relative long term value of Miller and Jenkins, but because it is very likely that if I'd waited a bit, I could have gotten Chris Sale instead, which obviously would have helped me ay more this year, which should have been my primary focus. I got cocky being in 1st, and went on a hunch that Miller might be ready to be decent enough to start this week with two starts. The deal doubly cost me--it cost me the opportunity to deal for Sale later. The Sale owner who will likely fall out of the race LOVES Jenkins and does not like Miller--he reached out after the deal mad that I dealt him, and let me know he would have dealt Sale or Juan Soto down the line for Jenkins, if I had kept him and he falls out of it. It all added up to me regretting the deal, which I rushed into because of Miller's two starts this week, which was really foolish given is performances this year. I had to rational reason to expect Miller would be decent for me this week, so rushing into dealing for him, despite me still liking him long term potentially cost me an expiring stud. Part of my reasoning was that I would not drop out if I were the Soto and Sale owner, as he is right in the race and I think he will be at the deadline, but he is one of those guys who wants to sell unless he is in the money at the deadline. Even if he is really close, he sells, with the logic that if he can't win it all, it is better to get long term assets then fight for a money spot. I forgot that consistent pattern of his when evaluating the likelihood of him selling down the line and decided to gamble on Miller, much to the delight of everyone in the hunt.

[Ken]

With respect to Carroll's shoulder, there is no evidence it's an issue, other than trying to blame it on his 2024 struggles.

Carroll missed a couple of games just before the ASB last season, but tests showed no issues. He slumped after the break (.209/.303/.365 in 32 games) but finished strong (.338/.400/.528 in 37 games). Carroll's .773 postseason OPS isn't great, but it's fine considering he was facing the best pitching in the league for most of the playoffs.

If the shoulder were an issue, it *should* have affected his numbers last season -- but it didn't.

FWIW, I also talked with an injury specialist who indicated from the available information, there was no need for long-term concern.

Good inside information!

Given it was a non-issue, why was there talk in draft season about pushing him down a few spots due to the shoulder?

It turned out to be correct to move him down, although that's potentially confirmation bias.

[Sour Masher]

The reaction has more to do with the assumption that my acquiring Jenkins would lead to what usually happens when I acquire top prospects--I'd flip him for an elite expiring or overpriced player to help me win this year. A couple of guys who have come up short to me a few times and hope to compete this year were really mad that the guy gave up Jenkins for a guy at Matt Chapman's level (although, he desperately needed a 3b, I landed Chapman really cheap in the auction, and no one else would deal him a 3bman). I went against expectations in dealing him for a struggling longer term play and that made the other guys who don't want me to 3peat really happy. It is true they both way overvalue prospects, which is why I'm able to deal guys like Jenkins every year for the best guys from dumping teams. The league as a whole overvalues prospects, which I take advantage of. This time, I just think their reaction confirms I misplayed it. Not because of the relative long term value of Miller and Jenkins, but because it is very likely that if I'd waited a bit, I could have gotten Chris Sale instead, which obviously would have helped me ay more this year, which should have been my primary focus. I got cocky being in 1st, and went on a hunch that Miller might be ready to be decent enough to start this week with two starts. The deal doubly cost me--it cost me the opportunity to deal for Sale later. The Sale owner who will likely fall out of the race LOVES Jenkins and does not like Miller--he reached out after the deal mad that I dealt him, and let me know he would have dealt Sale or Juan Soto down the line for Jenkins, if I had kept him and he falls out of it (Soto is perhaps the bigger get, but I need Sale more). It all added up to me regretting the deal, which I rushed into because of Miller's two starts this week, which was really foolish given is performances this year.

I had no rational reason to expect Miller would be decent for me this week, so rushing into dealing for him, despite me still liking him long term potentially cost me an expiring stud. Part of my reasoning was that I would not drop out if I were the Soto and Sale owner, as he is right in the race and I think he will be at the deadline, but he is one of those guys who wants to sell unless he is in the money at the deadline. Even if he is really close, he sells, with the logic that if he can't win it all, it is better to get long term assets then fight for a money spot. I forgot that consistent pattern of his when evaluating the likelihood of him selling down the line and decided to gamble on Miller, much to the delight of everyone in the hunt.

More relevant to this thread than me lamenting a deal--if my league is a fair sampling, the perceived value of Miller is way down. I had thought that might make him a good target for both this year and long term, but now I'm thinking the panic meter for this year should be higher than I initially thought. I hope he does turn it around, but his velocity was down in the last game, on top of the mechanical issues he had been having. My panic meter on Miller for this year grows higher with every start, but I'm still hoping he can be good enough to keep a rotation spot when everyone is healthy. That would require significant improvement, though.

[Ken]

More relevant to this thread than me lamenting a deal--if my league is a fair sampling, the perceived value of Miller is way down. I had thought that might make him a good target for both this year and long term, but now I'm thinking the panic meter for this year should be higher than I initially thought. I hope he does turn it around, but his velocity was down in the last game, on top of the mechanical issues he had been having. My panic meter on Miller for this year grows higher with every start, but I'm still hoping he can be good enough to keep a rotation spot when everyone is healthy. That would require significant improvement, though.

Here's what Nick Pollack just wrote, and I find it very appropriate:

Here’s the situation we’re in. Miller A) Is still throwing 96+ mph B) Pitches for the Dodgers C) Has a decent narrative of needing to shake off rust D) Gets Detroit next E) Had to deal with a full-strength Phillies lineup and F) Was stupid good last year. Also, watching this start had me rolling my eyes at times, from poor luck to not executing the right pitch when he needed to, and also throwing some terrible ones that burned him.

And the end of the day, throw all your emotions away. Step away from this and treat this moment removed from the 9 ER game. It happened. Accept it. Do you truly believe he will do the same thing against the Rockies in Los Angeles on Sunday? He’s likely still hurt. Then they’ll put him on the IL and you save the roster spot. I dunno, I’m sure I sound bananas saying all of this, and yet, the risk/reward of at least holding Miller for the Tigers start seems to be still in our favor. Do what you want, I’m holding.

[heyelander]

the phillies can hit a little bit too.

[madducks]

Dodgers optioned Bobby Miller.

No team designation was given, so the Dodgers might be sending him somewhere other than Triple-A to work on things for a bit.

[Ken]

Dodgers optioned Bobby Miller.

No team designation was given, so the Dodgers might be sending him somewhere other than Triple-A to work on things for a bit.

All Star break - lets him work on rehab more and possibly just miss 1 start. Sneaky move by the Dodgers.

[madducks]

Julio is just getting warmed up. He is still an unfinished product. He will have 4 hit games and he will have 4 strikeout games. But, he will get better. Much better.

Julio Rodriguez went 4-4 with a HR on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday he went 0-4 with 4 K's. Panic meter is still zero.

[Ken]

Julio Rodriguez went 4-4 with a HR on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday he went 0-4 with 4 K's. Panic meter is still zero.

I dont think it's 0. He's currently tracking to be overdrafted by a few spots, and no guarantee it rebounds. But I agree it's low, he'll still provide your team a lot of value even when he's struggling and he's started slow before.

[madducks]

Julio Rodriguez went 4-4 with a HR on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday he went 0-4 with 4 K's. Panic meter is still zero.

Julio Rodriguez has a high ankle sprain. You can panic now.