House and Senate 2012

[Bob Kohm]

Quite possible, Bryan-- but I think you're going to see money in this race that rivals what might be spent in a state like Georgia, Nevada or Minnesota. My condolences for the impact that's gonna have on your mailbox, TV and radio

[bryanbutler]

ugh, i hope not.

[onejayhawk]

A summary of the early reads on Senate races.

http://www.rbr.com/features/intel_briefs/battlegrounds-early-read-on-2012-us-senate-races.html

BTW, NM is a concensus toss up.

J

[bryanbutler]

BTW, NM is a concensus toss up.

maybe by pundits who don't live here.

[onejayhawk]

An update on the Senate races from UVa. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...rsenateupdate/

Bryan, here is their take on NM:

New Mexico: With incumbent Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) retiring, Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) and ex-Rep. Heather Wilson (R) are the leaders to fight it out in the general election for this open seat. However, neither candidate is a sure thing at this point in the election cycle. State Auditor Hector Balderas (D) could give Heinrich a run for his money in the primary, and could be an attractive candidate in the general as well, whereas Wilson is probably the best chance the Republicans have to pull this one out. Given the primary uncertainty, this race remains a TOSS UP, but Republicans may ultimately have better chances elsewhere: particularly if the Republican presidential candidate fails to make inroads among Hispanic voters, who accounted for more than two of every five New Mexico voters in 2008, according to exit polls.

I read that as agreeming with you, but they are calling it toss up because there are so many variables.

J

[Erik]

I know there's a Senate seat up in NJ, but I am so disillusioned with NJ politics that I haven't been paying attention to who might run. I'll get my act together in time to vote.

My House seat doesn't matter, the district is as Republican as Reagan.

[Judge Jude]

Bob Menendez is up for Senate re-elction in NJ in 2012.
He took Corzine's seat for about a year when Jon Corzine was elected Governor, and is filling out his first six-year term after being elected in Nov. 2006.

Last poll I saw, something like 43 pct of New Jerseyans knew who he was.
But he's a Democrat who can raise money in a left-leaning state, and I don't know of a credible Republican who might run against him. I imagine he's considered a favorite.

[Erik]

Ah, I know who Menendez is. Tool of the North Jersey Democratic machine.

NJ hasn't elected a Republican senator since Millicent Fenwick or something, so I doubt he'll have too much trouble getting re-elected, unless Obama turns out to be total electoral poison for the Democratic ticket.

[onejayhawk]

From the article.

New Jersey: Nobody gets all that excited about Sen. Robert Menendez, but the “D” after his name is probably all he needs in this race. Indeed, Republican Gov. Chris Christie’s personal popularity hasn’t seemed to help other members of his party; note, for instance, the recent New Jersey state legislative elections, where Democrats held off a Christie-led challenge to add a seat to their big majority in the state legislature. Christie of course would make a fine candidate, but after passing on a presidential run, he might be eyeing a vice presidential slot. We’ve upgraded the Democrats’ chances to keep this seat to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.

J

[onejayhawk]

An article on why we will not flush out the current congress. i had not considered it a genuine prospect, but it appears there has been talk.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-anti-incumbent-election-myth/

For the 32 elections between 1946 and 2010, there is a strong positive correlation between party seat swings in the House and Senate elections, emphasizing the close connection between the election results in each chamber of Congress. There has not been a single election in which a party gained at least 20 seats in the House while losing seats in the Senate. Moreover, since the adoption of the 17th Amendment to the Constitution, which provided for the direct popular election of senators, there has never been an election in which control of both chambers flipped in opposite directions.

J

[Bob Kohm]

There has not been a single election in which a party gained at least 20 seats in the House while losing seats in the Senate.

And that's good news for the GOP because...? Given where we are right now in terms of the 11% favorable rating of the Congress it is folly to think that the House is not in play.

[Don Quixote]

And that's good news for the GOP because...? Given where we are right now in terms of the 11% favorable rating of the Congress it is folly to think that the House is not in play.

There's always the possibility that the Senate will flip and not the House. The idea of McConnell as Senate Majority Leader is as nauseating as that of Harry Reid continuing, but if there's one thing McConnell knows, it's how to use the Senate rules. At least he knows how to move or not move legislation.

As for my local House races, my district and the three adjoining are all Republican and are likely to stay that way, with little in the way of substantive Democratic challengers. My district threw out a party hack Repub in 2008, but the Dem was so party-line that they threw him out in 2010 and went back to the previous hack.

[onejayhawk]

And that's good news for the GOP because...? Given where we are right now in terms of the 11% favorable rating of the Congress it is folly to think that the House is not in play.

I never said it was good news for the GOP. As for the House being in play, I never said it was not. What has been said, though not by me, is that there is a fair chance that both houses change party. This article speaks to that statement.

J

[Erik]

My House seat doesn't matter, the district is as Republican as Reagan.

Heh, I'm in a different district under the new NJ map, one that is a bit more even (but still majority GOP).

[Judge Jude]

Ben Nelson of Nebraska not running again.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/sen-ben-nelson-wont-seek-reelection/2011/12/27/gIQAmDWnKP_blog.html

I'm not sure which party is happier about that.


Meanwhile, NJ lost one seat in the House, from 13 to 12, by not growing as much as other states in last decade.

The result is that a pair of 15-year Democratic incumbents - Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman - will square off in a "Survivor" primary. Tea Party favorite Scott Garrett, though, is seen in linlk below as another "loser" because his rejiggered North Jersey district could set the table for a moderate Republican to challenge him. Interesting:

http://www.politickernj.com/53485/winners-and-losers-congressional-redistricting-edition