House and Senate 2012

[nots]

Former Governor Linda Lingle indicates she will run in the Republican primary in Hawaii to fill the open Senate seat in 2012. While Lingle is a decided longshot, she has won statewide twice before. Should she win here, I think she becomes a possible Presidential candidate in 2016.
On a side note: I always like and root for Reps in places like Hawaii and Massachusetts and root for Dems in places like Alaska and Utah. I think we get 'better' government from those people because their views are so less extreme.

[onejayhawk]

Former Governor Linda Lingle indicates she will run in the Republican primary in Hawaii to fill the open Senate seat in 2012. While Lingle is a decided longshot, she has won statewide twice before. Should she win here, I think she becomes a possible Presidential candidate in 2016.
On a side note: I always like and root for Reps in places like Hawaii and Massachusetts and root for Dems in places like Alaska and Utah. I think we get 'better' government from those people because their views are so less extreme.

Then how do you explain Sen Reid, from Nevada? Or Sen Daschle from North Dakota?

J

[nots]

Then how do you explain Sen Reid, from Nevada? Or Sen Daschle from North Dakota?

J

As with people, there are no perfect politicians. Perhaps I should have phrased that 'we generally get better government'; perhaps it's me just looking at the far left and far right and pining for those who can actually work and thrive with the other side.
As for your two examples: Daschle wasn't always bad and Reid's Nevada isn't exactly Utah or Alaska in terms of its GOP stronghold so your example is pretty flawed.

[onejayhawk]

Here is a trimmed down version of the races as of now.

Sabato's Crystal BallHomePresident Senate House Governor
2012 Senate Ratings Updated Oct. 11, 2011

AZ Jon Kyl (R Retiring) Likely R
CA Safe D
CT Joe Lieberman (I/D Retiring) Likely D
DE Safe D
FL Leans D
HI Daniel Akaka (D Retiring) Leans D
IN Likely R
MA Leans R
MD Safe D
ME Likely R
MI Likely D
MN Likely D
MO Toss up
MS Safe R
MT Toss up
ND Kent Conrad (D Retiring) Likely R
NE Toss up
NJ Leans D
NM Jeff Bingaman (D Retiring) Toss up
NV Leans R
NY Safe D
OH Leans D
PA Likely D
RI Safe D
TN Safe R
TX Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R Retiring) Safe R
UT Safe R
VA Jim Webb (R Retiring) Toss up
VT Safe D/I
WA Safe D
WI Herb Kohl (D Retiring) Toss up
WV Leans D
WY Safe R

Note the open seats. North Dakota is going from Democrat to likely Republican. Two additional Democrat open seats, and one Republican open seat, are listed as toss up. No incumbents are favored to lose, but three incumbent seats, all Democrat, are Toss Up.

Four seats would give the Republicans control.

J

[cardboardbox]

Agree with the last sentence, not with the first. Perhaps the official GOP campaign will not focus a great deal on Obamacare, but bet your last dollar a lot of the supposedly "unaffiliated" advertising will. There's no way the GOP allows the Dems to define them on health care; it'd simply be bad campaign strategy. Priebus, much to my shock and surprise, has actually proven reasonably competent so far.

if it becomes more apparent that the economy will continue to suck, less focus will be on obamacare, if the economy starts to rebound a lot, we'll hear more about obamacare.

[onejayhawk]

Here is an interesting article, from UVa., on the Party strongholds in the House.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/kdk2011102001/

The rest of the safe Democratic House seats [apart from the East and West coasts], for the most part, are located in or near the nation’s major cities or in rural areas populated by significant minority populations. A few of these safe Democratic seats are in the Republican Deep South: For example, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina have one majority-minority Democratic district apiece. These districts give minority voters the ability to elect a minority member to Congress, but they aren’t necessarily good for the Democratic Party. Those four southern states will have 24 representatives in the next House: Four almost certainly will be black Democrats; the other 20 almost certainly will be Republicans. No wonder why, in redistricting, black Democrats and white Republicans sometimes get along just fine, to the consternation of white Democrats.

Several states have not done redistricting. Texas adds four seats, Florida adds two, with several states adding or losing one. In all the Republicans can expect a gain of 10-15 seats via district additions, deletions and reshapings. On the subject of redistricting, here is an RCP piece from 2010. There is not yet a lot settled.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/11/11/a_preview_of_2012_redistricting_107924.html

J

[onejayhawk]

Barney Frank steps down. Massachusetts lost a seat to population decrease.

J

[chancellor]

Barney Frank steps down. Massachusetts lost a seat to population decrease.

That should assure the Dems hold that seat. Frank was a huge lightning rod for controversy, and the Dodd-Frank legislation was disliked by many. A lesser known Dem, short of running an incompetent campaign, should cruise to victory in a district that's about 61% Dem or leans Dem.

[onejayhawk]

That should assure the Dems hold that seat. Frank was a huge lightning rod for controversy, and the Dodd-Frank legislation was disliked by many. A lesser known Dem, short of running an incompetent campaign, should cruise to victory in a district that's about 61% Dem or leans Dem.

As you say, this will assure that the Democrats keep the seat, but I think this is more than that. He was going to have a tough haul in the primary.

UVa has updated their Senate board.

AZ Leans R
CA Safe D
CT Likely D
DE Safe D
FL Toss up
HI Leans D
IN Likely R
MA Toss up
MD Safe D
ME Likely R
MI Likely D
MN Safe D
MO Toss up
MS Safe R
MT Toss up
ND Likely R
NE Toss up
NJ Likely D
NM Toss up
NV Leans R
NY Leans D
Ohio Leans D
PA Likely D
RI Safe D
TN Safe R
TX Safe R
UT Safe R
VA Toss up
VT Safe D/I
WA Safe D
WI Toss up
WV Leans D
WY Safe R

D - 15
Toss up - 8
R - 10

Since the Democrats are defending 23 seats and the Republicans 10, this count strongly favors the GOP. Splitting the toss ups would give the Republicans control.

J

[onejayhawk]

Here it is sorted out a bit

HI Leans D | AZ Leans R | FL Toss up
NY Leans D | NV Leans R | MA Toss up
Ohio Leans D | IN Likely R | MO Toss up
WV Leans D | ME Likely R | MT Toss up
CT Likely D | ND Likely R | NE Toss up
MI Likely D | MS Safe R | NM Toss up
NJ Likely D | TN Safe R | VA Toss up
PA Likely D | TX Safe R | WI Toss up
CA Safe D | UT Safe R |
DE Safe D | WY Safe R |
MD Safe D | |
MN Safe D | |
RI Safe D | |
VT Safe D/I | |
WA Safe D | |


At this time 14 of 33 races are close enough to be called competitive, and only 2 of those 12 are Republican seats. It may be too early to say that control of the Senate is the Republicans to lose, but its close. Naturally, things are vague because candidates are not set. In several cases a seat is empty, and both parties have primaries to go through. UVa us predicting that a Republican will take the North Dakota seat now held be Democrat. Bill Nelson's Nebraska seat is often considered to lean Republican, but is shown here as a tossup. From the article:

[O]f 23 Democratic-held seats, almost three-quarters of them (17 of 23, or 74%) are at least potentially competitive. So even if they lose the presidency, Republicans only need to win fewer than a quarter of these seats (four) to get to the magic number of 51 — enough to make Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) majority leader provided they don’t lose any of their own seats.

J

[bryanbutler]

NM Toss up

i don't know who is making those up, but unless martin heinrich pulls a howard dean, NM should be democrat. heather wilson is the only credible opponent, and she could barely hold her house seat (and then lost in the primary trying to gain domenici's vacated senate seat).

[onejayhawk]

i don't know who is making those up, but unless martin heinrich pulls a howard dean, NM should be democrat. heather wilson is the only credible opponent, and she could barely hold her house seat (and then lost in the primary trying to gain domenici's vacated senate seat).

University of Virginia Center for Politics. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/

The key name is Larry Sabato, much quoted pundit. He created the Crystal Ball, which is basically the University's blog on elections. I lump this in with Nebraska, which many are calling a lean Republican. They mark out the two extremes of the middle. Note that the "toss up" is this wide, yet less than half the elections are close enough to be called competitive. The safe seat are almost bomb proof.

J

[Bob Kohm]

The key name is Larry Sabato, much quoted pundit. He created the Crystal Ball, which is basically the University's blog on elections.

The key thing to know about Larry Sabato is that while he is very often quoted and very often featured in the media, he also very often shows a marked bias. Although the media loves him he's not held in high regard in DC or amongst campaign professionals. BTW, I think that Heather Wilson has a bit better chance than Bryan does as I know the people running her fundraising op and believe that she's going to bring in a ton of money, but I still think that the seat goes Democratic despite that.

[onejayhawk]

The key thing to know about Larry Sabato is that while he is very often quoted and very often featured in the media, he also very often shows a marked bias. Although the media loves him he's not held in high regard in DC or amongst campaign professionals. BTW, I think that Heather Wilson has a bit better chance than Bryan does as I know the people running her fundraising op and believe that she's going to bring in a ton of money, but I still think that the seat goes Democratic despite that.

I think it will follow the White House. That may not be saying much different.

Sabato is a media hound, no doubt about it.

J

[bryanbutler]

BTW, I think that Heather Wilson has a bit better chance than Bryan does as I know the people running her fundraising op and believe that she's going to bring in a ton of money, but I still think that the seat goes Democratic despite that.

you're right that enough money might sway things, but she (and the party) brought a metric ****-ton of money (*) in when she ran against the inept patricia madrid and she just managed to squeak by. i think heinrich wins this one, and it won't be particularly close in the end.

* - it was a lot of money by NM politics standards - probably not that much by big-market standards .

ETA: footnote.