Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[The Feral Slasher]

I just don't see an out for Putin at this point. If he wins and Kyiv surrenders, he installs his puppets, but then what? How can he hold it? The Ukrainian population is lost to him forever. He would have to commit an occupation force there for generations. If he goes nuts and nukes them, all hell will be unleashed on him. I don't see how the world will stand by and let him nuke a non-peer country like that. Same with if he goes scorched earth and goes the genocide route (wouldn't be a first for Russia). He is too proud to just back off tail between his legs and Ukraine won't just accept for him to keep whatever extra territory he seized this time. So how does this end? With the oligarchs taking him out?

I think it is much more likely that he wants a de-militarized, non-NATO member Ukraine, as well as possibly independence of certain areas or incorporation of some areas into Russia compared to the possibility that he is going to go nuts and use nuclear weapons.

[GwynnInTheHall]

So how does this end? With the oligarchs taking him out?

This seems to me, to be the most reasonable outcome. There's one thing that matters more to some people that country and that's money. There's already one bounty on Putin for a Million bucks posted by a wealthy russian. With assets being seized right and left, it won't take long for the real power to step up and shut him down--because to date, they've made their wealth backing him, once that stops--so should their loyalty.

[ironfist]

I think it is much more likely that he wants a de-militarized, non-NATO member Ukraine, as well as possibly independence of certain areas or incorporation of some areas into Russia compared to the possibility that he is going to go nuts and use nuclear weapons.

WEll by this comment, I also mean attacking and possibly damaging nuclear power plants. Will the world stand by and allow another possibly greater Chernobyl event?

[The Feral Slasher]

WEll by this comment, I also mean attacking and possibly damaging nuclear power plants. Will the world stand by and allow another possibly greater Chernobyl event?

If Putin/Russia want to make this nuclear there is nothing we can do to stop them. I think it is very unlikely that is what they want. Are we more likely or less likely to have a nuclear war if we send us troops/planes etc into ukraine and directly confront Russia ?

[GwynnInTheHall]

If Putin/Russia want to make this nuclear there is nothing we can do to stop them. I think it is very unlikely that is what they want.

There will always be those that believe limited nuclear engagement is possible without triggering Armageddon.

Better get Bruce Willis on the phone...

[Sour Masher]

And assuming Ukraine eventually falls, what is he supposed to do with the leadership like Zelenskyy, Klitschko, etc? Lock them up? Exile them? Execute them? They've gotten so popular with not only the people of Ukraine, but the world, that any way he turns with them would be disastrous.

I think he hoped they would run in fear. He would label them nazis, and they would live in exile with the new puppet regime declaring them enemies of the state that would be arrested and executed if they return. But he underestimated their resolve and that of the Ukrainian people. Still, from what Marcon has said after talking to him, Putin is doubling down. It would be a tremendous loss of face for him to just limp back out of Ukraine without some kind of face-saving thing he can call a win. I don't know Ukraine and the West will allow in that regard, and I have no right to advocate for any concessions as an outsider, but I do hope something can be agreed to, like a guarantee Ukraine won't be admitted to Nato and maybe recognition of Crimea and the disputed areas in the east as no longer part of Ukraine. I know neither of these things is fair or right, but I fear what will happen if this continues to escalate.

[Bene Futuis]

Borrowed from elsewhere, but here are a list of charities you may want to explore if you are looking for a way to help out with Ukraine's fight against the facsists:

Charities that help the war effort
Save Life: This NGO crowdfunds non-lethal military equipment, such as thermal vision scopes & supplies it to the Donbas front lines. It also provides training for Ukrainian soldiers, as well as researching troops’ needs and social reintegration of veterans.
Donbas SOS: This organization helps those who live in the Donbas war zone, those who relocated to other parts of Ukraine, and freed prisoners of war. It offers legal support, accommodation assistance, and psychological aid among other things.
Crimea SOS: This organization has been helping internally displaced people from Crimea since Russia occupied the peninsula in 2014. It documents Russian authorities' repressions against Crimeans and advocates for the end of the occupation.
Hospitallers : This is a medical battalion that unites volunteer paramedics and doctors to save the lives of soldiers on the frontline. They crowdfund their vehicle repairs, fuel, and medical equipment.

Charities that help children
Tabletochki: This foundation has been supporting children with cancer for 10 years. They procure medicines, equipment, and arrange overseas treatment, among other things.
ChildrenWeWillMakeIt: This movement grew out of a campaign that raised $2 million to get the world's most expensive medicine for a Ukrainian boy with spinal muscular atrophy. It now fundraises for the treatment of other Ukrainian children with SMA.
Ruka ob Ruku: This is a running club for children with disabilities. The initiative gives children an opportunity to train and take part in races together with their parents and volunteers.

Charities for the elderly
Happy Old: This charity provides older people across Ukraine with groceries and medicine, holds educational, entertainment, and sports events, as well as helps with employment. They even created a modeling agency for the elderly.
Let's Help: This charity cares for older people living alone and helps state retirement homes. They also advocate for better treatment of older people by the state, including providing people aged 60+ with easy access to education.
Starenki: It’s a charitable initiative devoted to issues of old age in Ukraine. They help lonely seniors by providing them with groceries and hygiene products.

Charities that help women
Women Perspectives: This organization has been helping women who have faced domestic violence, discrimination in the labor market, and other issues. The NGO works with local and state authorities to promote pro-equality gender policies in Ukraine.
Marsh Zhinok (Women’s March): Every year, on March 8, this initiative holds a rally promoting gender equality and the protection of women from gender-based violence. Currently, the organization is petitioning for Ukraine to adopt the Istanbul Convention.

Charities for blood donation
Blood Agents: It is an NGO that promotes regular, conscious and gratuitous blood donations. They have encouraged people to donate blood over 5,000 times over the past six years.
Donor UA: It is an automated system for recruiting and managing blood donors, designed to promote the donor movement in Ukraine. You can help by signing up and donating blood or by supporting the project with money donation.

Charities for animals
Sirius: Is the largest shelter for stray animals in Ukraine established in 2000. Its capacity is over 3,000 animals. The institution crowdfunds for animal feed, veterinary drugs, construction and repair of enclosures, and other needs.
Happy Paw: Is a charity dedicated to solving the problems of homeless animals in Ukraine. The charity helps owners find lost animals, sterilizes domestic animals of people in need & holds lectures on humane treatment of homeless animals for schoolchildren.
UAnimals: Is a movement for protecting animals from exploitation & abuse. The organization managed to achieve a ban on animal circuses & persuaded many designers participating in Ukrainian Fashion Week to abandon natural fur.

Charities for the environment
Ukraine Without Waste: It is a Ukrainian non-profit promoting the practice of sorting household waste. They educate companies on how to go green at their offices, and hold lectures for the wider public.
Laska: It’s a chain of two charity stores in Kyiv that promote conscious shopping. They accept donated clothes, resell 15% of them, and send the rest to orphanages, homes for the elderly and centers for people with disabilities.

Charities for the homeless
Help the homeless: This initiative supports homeless people & the elderly in need, by providing them with free meals, medicine, hygiene products, clothes & shoes. Launched by a group of volunteers in 2016, the organization has been relying on crowdfunding.
Suka Zhizn: This organization grew big from a 2017 Instagram account launched to tell stories of homeless people. Now volunteers provide various support to the homeless: employment, sorting out documents, searching for relatives & legal counseling.

Charities for investigative journalism
Slidstvo: Is an independent agency launched in 2012 that produces award-winning documentaries exposing corruption. They have investigated mismanagement of prisons, fraud, money laundering at PrivatBank & the assassination of journalist Sheremet.
UKRPravda News: Founded in 2000 by Gongadze, a prominent journalist who was killed the same year, this publication is among the most influential in Ukraine. The reporters break political scoops and unmask officials who abuse their power.
Zaborona Media: This is an independent media outlet founded by journalists. They investigate topics such as violations of Ukrainian workers’ rights in the Middle East, arms trafficking, and corruption in the construction sector.

[TranaGreg]

so an agreement is needed that both sides can position as a win. How about ...

Russia formally gets Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk; Ukraine signs an agreement that they will not join NATO
Ukraine can continue with its application into the EU; Russia signs some sort of treaty/agreement to respect Ukraine's independence and current borders.

[GwynnInTheHall]

so an agreement is needed that both sides can position as a win. How about ...

Russia formally gets Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk; Ukraine signs an agreement that they will not join NATO
Ukraine can continue with its application into the EU; Russia signs some sort of treaty/agreement to respect Ukraine's independence and current borders.

So Russia gets exactly what it wanted all along and only had to kill hundreds of Ukrainians, displace over a million and devastate their infrastructure....What a Deal!

[Sour Masher]

so an agreement is needed that both sides can position as a win. How about ...

Russia formally gets Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk; Ukraine signs an agreement that they will not join NATO
Ukraine can continue with its application into the EU; Russia signs some sort of treaty/agreement to respect Ukraine's independence and current borders.

I think that is a compromise that might let Putin save enough face to back down, and also secure the rest of Ukraine's right to self-government. But I could also see Ukraine not wanting to make these concessions, especially with a gun to their head like it is now with Russian's invasion in full force.

[Sour Masher]

So Russia gets exactly what it wanted all along and only had to kill hundreds of Ukrainians, displace over a million and devastate their infrastructure....What a Deal!

I think this is far short of what Putin hoped for when this began. It is pretty clear he thought he could topple the entire Ukraine government and set up a puppet government that answers to the Kremlin like Belarus--like it was before 2014 when the pro-Russian government fell and Putin responded by invading Crimea. That might still be his ambition despite the hard road his invasion has faced. Putin does not want Ukraine in the EU. He wants it back under Russian control entirely.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I think this is far short of what Putin hoped for when this began. It is pretty clear he thought he could topple the entire Ukraine government and set up a puppet government that answers to the Kremlin like Belarus--like it was before 2014 when the pro-Russian government fell and Putin responded by invading Crimea. That might still be his ambition despite the hard road his invasion has faced. Putin does not want Ukraine in the EU. He wants it back under Russian control entirely.

What do the Ukrainian people want?

I'm not a fan of US intervention or how we've handled ourselves on the world stage, in some cases no better than Putin right now--And I know it's not up to me, but if I don't accept from my own country I certainly want to see pushback when a nation like Russia. I'd accept a full withdrawal, reparations and an agreement that if there are further aggressions by Russia oir it's minions against Ukraine--International military action is sanctioned in response.

For all of that--They agree not to join NATO.

[The Feral Slasher]

So Russia gets exactly what it wanted all along and only had to kill hundreds of Ukrainians, displace over a million and devastate their infrastructure....What a Deal!

The other side of the coin is the war continues and we end up with 1000s more dead, and potential for WWIII.

Neither choice seems right.

[GwynnInTheHall]

The other side of the coin is the war continues and we end up with 1000s more dead, and potential for WWIII.

Neither choice seems right.

I understand all that--WW2 took a heavy toll, but it stop Hitler from executing his entire plan and Japan from occupying most of China among other things.

Doing the right thing is costly at times, allowing bullies to get what they want cannot be tolerated or they'll come back stronger, emboldened and less likely to negotiate.

Putin is forcing the West to do what he wants at the expense of Ukraine. It can't be allowed, one way or another this needs to end with Putin being removed from power. How that happens and what the cost will be can be debated, but unless you want to spend the rest of your days watching the World capitulate to Russia and countries like them, this must end here.

[Sour Masher]

What do the Ukrainian people want?

I'm not a fan of US intervention or how we've handled ourselves on the world stage, in some cases no better than Putin right now--And I know it's not up to me, but if I don't accept from my own country I certainly want to see pushback when a nation like Russia. I'd accept a full withdrawal, reparations and an agreement that if there are further aggressions by Russia oir it's minions against Ukraine--International military action is sanctioned in response.

For all of that--They agree not to join NATO.

Well, your first question is what really matters, and what will determine how this plays out.

Your second paragraph confuses me, because you are not a fan of US intervention, but what you are suggesting should happen is impossible without it. Ukraine is not in any position to make demands of Russia without military intervention from outside forces, likely with the US part of that, and since that could lead to WW III, this is not an easy case of standing up to the bully that needs to be put in its place. The global response has been heartening and Ukrainian bravery and resolve has been impressive and inspiring. But none of that is enough to lead to the outcomes you find acceptable. Ukraine and NATO will either have to concede more or Russia will not back down and then the world will have to decide how to handle that. You seem to be okay with the next step being a US led military engagement with Russia. I think very, very few people agree with that. The worst case scenario of that course of action is as bad as humanity has ever seen--a scenario not many of us would survive. I'm not saying it would go down that road toward nuclear holocaust, but the chance of it would be greater than 0% and with stakes this high, I don't think anyone wants to even start down that road.