2024 Election Thread

[madducks]

Election denier Tom Emmer’s bid to be speaker is on the verge of collapse, according to multiple GOP members.

[revo]

Election denier Tom Emmer’s bid to be speaker is on the verge of collapse, according to multiple GOP members.

His bid lasted 1/300th of a Scaramucci.

Trump toady Mark Meadows flipped and agreed to provide prosecutors with evidence that both him and TFG were well aware his “rigged election” nonsense was all schtick

[madducks]

The GOP finally agrees on a candidate and elects Mike Johnson (another Trump toady) to be the new speaker.

[madducks]

Mike Pence has suspended his campaign for president.

[Teenwolf]

Biden is polling horribly, getting beaten by Trump in 5 of 6 swing states.

Team Biden is pushing further to the right, trying to win back Trump voters, the single dumbest strategy imaginable. Biden is severely damaging his standing with black voters, and especially Muslim voters, given his support for the Gaza genocide. In Michigan, where Muslims hold the hammer, Biden is flailing.

Even David Axelrod is questioning whether Biden should step aside, which is wild to see.

Incredibly scary times.

[revo]

Republicans crushed in major elections tonight, wow

[revo]

Sen. Joe Manchin will not run for re-election, likely giving the GOP a big chance for a seat.

[Sour Masher]

Sen. Joe Manchin will not run for re-election, likely giving the GOP a big chance for a seat.

Is it really going to be all that different when a repub holds the seat? How many things that really mattered did Joe vote with the Dems on lately?

[Sour Masher]

Biden is polling horribly, getting beaten by Trump in 5 of 6 swing states.

Team Biden is pushing further to the right, trying to win back Trump voters, the single dumbest strategy imaginable. Biden is severely damaging his standing with black voters, and especially Muslim voters, given his support for the Gaza genocide. In Michigan, where Muslims hold the hammer, Biden is flailing.

Even David Axelrod is questioning whether Biden should step aside, which is wild to see.

Incredibly scary times.

I'm all for Biden stepping aside, but at the same time, these polls really surprise and perplex me. I don't know what is different now than when Biden trounced Trump in 2020. He hasn't done anything to produce this sort of swing (I think you are wrong suggesting his stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is what is moving the needle) . But it is disturbing.

I'm gonna float a name that I know you will absolutely hate, and I am going to preemptively link to an article about why pinning any hopes on him is a bad idea, but I am still gonna say it--Andy Beshear seems like a guy who could win in 2024. Here is an article arguing I am wrong: https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...tucky-00126233. I will add other reasons not to support him--he is a legacy, riding on his father's previous success in the state. I hate bloodlines in politics, so when my wife first tried to get me to watch him, I balked at it. But when I did look closer, I begrudgingly had to be impressed. His team ran a heck of a campaign, and he succeeded in a state that is very Trump-centric with good strategy. Personally, it is a huge turn off that he is soft on climate change, but he had to be in Kentucky, and I admire his political courage in standing for abortion and lgbtq+ rights. Despite these stances being in opposition to the majority in his state (The state of McConnel and Rand Paul, remember), he is one of the most popular governors in the country.

To be clear, he isn't my ideal candidate, and independent on what I want, personally, in a candidate, he doesn't strike me as all that charismatic and I worry Trump would eat him for dinner in a debate, but his team knows how to run a campaign, and while he doesn't blow me away, and I know going to the center is not the path you think leads to victory, a 45 year old Biden-type who isn't way past his prime, and who knows how to appeal to moderate republican voters, isn't a bad alternative to Biden. As for a progressive alternative, I can't think of a viable one right now. Do you have a name that could realistically win in 2024?

[revo]

The polls show bad news for the Dems/Biden, and then when it comes to the actual election, they overperform. Abortion + Trump Hatred is far more powerful than Biden's shortcomings. Plus, that kook RFK Jr. is polling extraordinarily high as a 3rd party candidate -- as high as 24% in some swing states, and he's ranging anywhere from 18%-24% -- and it seems he's pulling more from tRump than from Biden in the first polls I saw last week.

[Teenwolf]

The polls show bad news for the Dems/Biden, and then when it comes to the actual election, they overperform. Abortion + Trump Hatred is far more powerful than Biden's shortcomings. Plus, that kook RFK Jr. is polling extraordinarily high as a 3rd party candidate -- as high as 24% in some swing states, and he's ranging anywhere from 18%-24% -- and it seems he's pulling more from tRump than from Biden in the first polls I saw last week.

The bolded point is wrong. There's a massive difference between public support for Biden vs generic Democrats. One poll showed Biden down 3 to Trump with "generic Dem" at +8! That's massive!

Now, polling has become less and less reliable as landline phones disappear. I'm not saying the polls are accurate, just terrifying since they're all we have.

Despite some major economic stimulus successes, inflation stopped, unemployment at an all-time low, etc. Fox and right wingers just know how to villainize opponents better.

[Teenwolf]

I'm all for Biden stepping aside, but at the same time, these polls really surprise and perplex me. I don't know what is different now than when Biden trounced Trump in 2020. He hasn't done anything to produce this sort of swing (I think you are wrong suggesting his stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is what is moving the needle) . But it is disturbing.

I'm gonna float a name that I know you will absolutely hate, and I am going to preemptively link to an article about why pinning any hopes on him is a bad idea, but I am still gonna say it--Andy Beshear seems like a guy who could win in 2024. Here is an article arguing I am wrong: https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...tucky-00126233. I will add other reasons not to support him--he is a legacy, riding on his father's previous success in the state. I hate bloodlines in politics, so when my wife first tried to get me to watch him, I balked at it. But when I did look closer, I begrudgingly had to be impressed. His team ran a heck of a campaign, and he succeeded in a state that is very Trump-centric with good strategy. Personally, it is a huge turn off that he is soft on climate change, but he had to be in Kentucky, and I admire his political courage in standing for abortion and lgbtq+ rights. Despite these stances being in opposition to the majority in his state (The state of McConnel and Rand Paul, remember), he is one of the most popular governors in the country.

To be clear, he isn't my ideal candidate, and independent on what I want, personally, in a candidate, he doesn't strike me as all that charismatic and I worry Trump would eat him for dinner in a debate, but his team knows how to run a campaign, and while he doesn't blow me away, and I know going to the center is not the path you think leads to victory, a 45 year old Biden-type who isn't way past his prime, and who knows how to appeal to moderate republican voters, isn't a bad alternative to Biden. As for a progressive alternative, I can't think of a viable one right now. Do you have a name that could realistically win in 2024?

I'll respond to more later, but on the bolded point, it's very clear.

Googled this from Reuters, no time to quote or link properly but it's the first hit from Google. Went from over 50% to 17%! Death knell for Michigan, to start.

WASHINGTON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - President Joe Biden's support among Arab Americans, who are crucial voters in battleground election states, has plunged from a comfortable majority in 2020 to just 17%, a new poll shows, amid growing anger over the Democratic president's support for Israel's attacks on Gaza.

[Sour Masher]

I'll respond to more later, but on the bolded point, it's very clear.

Googled this from Reuters, no time to quote or link properly but it's the first hit from Google. Went from over 50% to 17%! Death knell for Michigan, to start.

And if he responded differently, he would lose support among Jewish Americans. And when push comes to shove, who are people going to vote for if they are against Israel's response to Hamas attack? Trump? There is no option in the GOP that will run against support for Israel. Some democratic voters might stay home, but none will defect to the GOP. Going the other way would have also lost him votes. It was a no win situation in terms of votes/support. The poll numbers nationally suggest there are bigger needle movers for Biden than this issue. The idea that Trump has jumped Biden in the polls over Biden's stance on this when Trump would be even more Pro-Israel does not make sense to me.

ETA: To be clear, I am not suggesting another DNC candidate could not do better than Biden on this issue among Democratic voters, I am just saying that I do not believe that the polling showing Biden losing to Trump is a result of his stance on Israel's response to Hamas's attack when Trump and the GOP are uniformly Pro-Israel.

[revo]

The House Ethics committee released a damning report today that Crooked George Santos used campaign donations for personal use, including OnlyFans memberships, LOL. Shortly afterwards, Santos announced he wouldn't run for re-election.

[Sour Masher]

The House Ethics committee released a damning report today that Crooked George Santos used campaign donations for personal use, including OnlyFans memberships, LOL. Shortly afterwards, Santos announced he wouldn't run for re-election.

Shocking....that he won't run again. Given who wins for that party these days, he would have a good shot of getting reelected.