The new COVID thread

[johnnya24]

Unless I misunderstood what I read, the NHS has data indicating if the patient was treated primarily for covid or had incidental covid. I think it was info I say on John Burn-Murdoch twitter if I recall.

Edit: https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurd...39810913931264

They rarely provide Covid-only data for some reason - been that way since the beginning of the pandemic. We aren't mature enough to have all the information, or they simple can't provide it. It's always "X number of people have died from Covid today", not, "X number of people died with Covid, of which Y number were Covid-only patients"

We won't know that data until we can compare annual death rates after the fact (deaths above the average).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FINXeoeXMAYjI69?format=jpg

Compared to Delta last winter in London:

1. Off the chart infection rate increase, but:
2. 50% less hospitalization (and much shorter stays)
3. 80% less ventilation
4. 90% less deaths

Exactly the same story as in South Africa. That was the big unknown at the beginning of December - will SAF be replicated elsewhere?

All's looking good.

[Gregg]

Child Protective Services and Computer Training Unit obviously.

It was not obvious to me. I would like to say if it was in all caps it would have helped... but it would not have.

[umjewman]

cps? Ctu?

Child Protective Services and Computer Training Unit obviously.

[The Feral Slasher]

The biggest problem we are having with the Omicron wave is logistics, and the fact that we didn't prepare properly for it (surprise surprise). We have also run out of rapid test kits, which are now prioritized for healthcare. Our hospitals and care homes are suffering from severe staffing issues, but severe illness and death is low - and in fact we don't know how low precisely, because there are so many incidental Covid cases in our hospitals: an admission with Covid is regarded as a "Covid admission" even if was incidental; the same with oxygen administration and ICU placement; a death with Covid is regarded as a "Covid Death" even if Covid was incidental.

.

Unless I misunderstood what I read, the NHS has data indicating if the patient was treated primarily for covid or had incidental covid. I think it was info I say on John Burn-Murdoch twitter if I recall.

Edit: https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurd...39810913931264

[umjewman]

Our schools were closed today because of ice. They've been doing snack outside as much as possible, and I guess sleet is not conducive to that. Should be another productive day at work with my wife in isolation and two elementary aged kids running around!

[Mithrandir]

cps canceled classes today as 72% of the ctu voted not to return to the buildings. Cps does have a very robust remote learning system for those with the resources to access it.

cps? Ctu?

[Moonlight J]

CPS canceled classes today as 72% of the CTU voted not to return to the buildings. CPS does have a very robust remote learning system for those with the resources to access it.

[Sour Masher]

The French sure as heck won't settle for some mere Greek symbol to name a variant from their fine country. I suspect a name like Pomme du Delta.

My bet is they just name it a fleur-de-lis symbol.

[chancellor]

And already a new variant has emerged: https://amp.dw.com/en/new-corona-var...nce/a-60329823

"As long as the vaccination campaign isn't advanced globally, new variants will always develop somewhere. Sometimes they are more harmless, sometimes more dangerous. It remains to be seen what this new variant will be. "

The French sure as heck won't settle for some mere Greek symbol to name a variant from their fine country. I suspect a name like Pomme du Delta.

[johnnya24]

The SAF data is noteworthey. Severity low or lower?

https://pasteboard.co/yGSOonJXzSsc.png

Can't embed images for some reason.

[johnnya24]

I've seen some stuff indicating London likely peaked...somewhat hard to trust case counts with test availability and holiday impacts to reporting. It will peak at different times in different locations. Hopefully NY to DC area peaks soon. Anyway, it does appear to be killing a much lower of percent infected people to this point, and less ICU admissions...so lots of hopeful news in spite of the high case counts. I still can't help but be concerned by the high number of cases, hopefully we don't overwhelm the health care system and get thru this better than previous waves.

The biggest problem we are having with the Omicron wave is logistics, and the fact that we didn't prepare properly for it (surprise surprise). We have also run out of rapid test kits, which are now prioritized for healthcare. Our hospitals and care homes are suffering from severe staffing issues, but severe illness and death is low - and in fact we don't know how low precisely, because there are so many incidental Covid cases in our hospitals: an admission with Covid is regarded as a "Covid admission" even if was incidental; the same with oxygen administration and ICU placement; a death with Covid is regarded as a "Covid Death" even if Covid was incidental.

With regard the statistics (lies, damned lies etc):

- Infection is high, but in reality the infection rate is much much higher because so many people have it without even realizing - thanks to the success of the vaccine program + gradual natural immunity.

- Severe illness / death is low, but in reality is lower (much lower?) because the statistics determining the rate of severity are muddled in with already existing conditions, admissions, treatments and deaths.

The high number of Omicron cases is clearly a good thing. Omicron is bouncing off our population (as it did previously in South Africa), and leaving behind even more natural immunity in its wake.

We need to be leaning into Omicron, not running away.

[Sour Masher]

And already a new variant has emerged: https://amp.dw.com/en/new-corona-var...nce/a-60329823

"As long as the vaccination campaign isn't advanced globally, new variants will always develop somewhere. Sometimes they are more harmless, sometimes more dangerous. It remains to be seen what this new variant will be. "

[The Feral Slasher]

The spike is unprecedented, but a lot of sources are saying that the upside of it is the peak may have already been reached, or will be soon, and then it should get better soon. It wasn't possible to flatten the Omicron curve much at all, but thankfully it has been relatively mild and hopefully the numbers fall as rapidly as the rose.


"Two to three weeks seems to be what it takes for it to peak and then to rapidly decline," said Dr. Amesh Adalja with Johns Hopkins University, "not because it's infecting everyone but because it's infecting those people who are most susceptible to get infected … and then everybody else starts to change their behavior and then it collapses."

"One model from Columbia University suggests the peak could come next week."

I've seen some stuff indicating London likely peaked...somewhat hard to trust case counts with test availability and holiday impacts to reporting. It will peak at different times in different locations. Hopefully NY to DC area peaks soon. Anyway, it does appear to be killing a much lower of percent infected people to this point, and less ICU admissions...so lots of hopeful news in spite of the high case counts. I still can't help but be concerned by the high number of cases, hopefully we don't overwhelm the health care system and get thru this better than previous waves.

[Sour Masher]

Johns Hopkins' site lists the current 7-day moving average positivity rate at 32.72%. Never seen it nearly that high thruout the entire pandemic. For perspective, in order to indicate that the pandemic may be ending this rate needs to be below 5.0% for something like 14 days straight (I read this a while ago - I couldnt find any figures on this in a brief search).

The spike is unprecedented, but a lot of sources are saying that the upside of it is the peak may have already been reached, or will be soon, and then it should get better soon. It wasn't possible to flatten the Omicron curve much at all, but thankfully it has been relatively mild and hopefully the numbers fall as rapidly as the rose.


"Two to three weeks seems to be what it takes for it to peak and then to rapidly decline," said Dr. Amesh Adalja with Johns Hopkins University, "not because it's infecting everyone but because it's infecting those people who are most susceptible to get infected … and then everybody else starts to change their behavior and then it collapses."

"One model from Columbia University suggests the peak could come next week."

[rhd]

Johns Hopkins' site lists the current 7-day moving average positivity rate at 32.72%. Never seen it nearly that high thruout the entire pandemic. For perspective, in order to indicate that the pandemic may be ending this rate needs to be below 5.0% for something like 14 days straight (I read this a while ago - I couldnt find any figures on this in a brief search).