Corona Virus

[Kevin Seitzer]

There is a definite geographic trend in the states where new cases are still growing. I can't say I understand it. But the upper Great Plains/Midwest states make one group, New England another, and then Mississippi/Alabama and the Chesapeake Bay.

[The Feral Slasher]

There is a definite geographic trend in the states where new cases are still growing. I can't say I understand it. But the upper Great Plains/Midwest states make one group, New England another, and then Mississippi/Alabama and the Chesapeake Bay.

Perhaps number of tests ? I haven't been following that

[gcstomp]

Not that straight forward seitzer. I am in florida, you cant get a covid-19 test here. people line up for hours, and they have, for example, 400 per day for a site, but cars lined up for more than a mile, thousands of people, lined up for hours to try to get tested. Why dont they go to hospital? Signs posted stating no covid-19 testing unless your symptoms present bad enough that you require hospital admittance. From family knowledge, I know it is same case in NJ. So, the number of cases is not at all reflective of anything bt how the testing is being controlled to a slow trickle.

Similar to fl unemployment. Numbers dont look horrific? Well, there is a phone number that you can call but is never answered, or you can try to apply online but you will never be able to actually submit as site always restarts your app before getting to final section. System was designed to be faulty so to reduce number of unemployed cases presented on reports.

[Sour Masher]

It’s an evil regime and we would be a lot better off treating them more like Iran and less like Japan. Instead we go merrily along borrowing billions of dollars from them all the while buying their products, happy to save $20 on a new dishwasher. This is a great opportunity to take a real hard look at our relationship with them. I hold little hope we will.

We have allowed them to own so much of our country, like a roided up Saudi Arabia, that I can't see how we'd unravel that. As with SA and oil, our consumer interests are so tied to China, I see no way out of bed with them, and visa versa. We have a much easier path toward oil independence, in fact, then being able to break free from China economically.

[Sour Masher]

Cuomo has mandated the use of face coverings in situations where social distancing is not possible in NY. No teeth in it yet, but probably a good thing to tell everyone.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Not that straight forward seitzer. I am in florida, you cant get a covid-19 test here. people line up for hours, and they have, for example, 400 per day for a site, but cars lined up for more than a mile, thousands of people, lined up for hours to try to get tested. Why dont they go to hospital? Signs posted stating no covid-19 testing unless your symptoms present bad enough that you require hospital admittance. From family knowledge, I know it is same case in NJ. So, the number of cases is not at all reflective of anything bt how the testing is being controlled to a slow trickle.

Similar to fl unemployment. Numbers dont look horrific? Well, there is a phone number that you can call but is never answered, or you can try to apply online but you will never be able to actually submit as site always restarts your app before getting to final section. System was designed to be faulty so to reduce number of unemployed cases presented on reports.

I think testing is not in a great place in most states. Florida is about average with respect to tests conducted per capita. Testing in Florida was better about 10 days ago, so maybe that is part of it.

[Sour Masher]

Not that straight forward seitzer. I am in florida, you cant get a covid-19 test here. people line up for hours, and they have, for example, 400 per day for a site, but cars lined up for more than a mile, thousands of people, lined up for hours to try to get tested. Why dont they go to hospital? Signs posted stating no covid-19 testing unless your symptoms present bad enough that you require hospital admittance. From family knowledge, I know it is same case in NJ. So, the number of cases is not at all reflective of anything bt how the testing is being controlled to a slow trickle.

Similar to fl unemployment. Numbers dont look horrific? Well, there is a phone number that you can call but is never answered, or you can try to apply online but you will never be able to actually submit as site always restarts your app before getting to final section. System was designed to be faulty so to reduce number of unemployed cases presented on reports.

Your first point is why I have long contended the number of infections exceed the number of official cases by a large degree. As the antibody testing becomes more widespread, we should have a clearer picture of the actual infection rate.

I've posted before, my mother-in-law, who lives in Florida, is dealing with that artifact of the Rick Scott regime. She gets stone walled at ever turn in her efforts to try to get unemployment. After many hours a day for many days, she finally got ahold of a state representative that pointed her to a paper form. She filled it out and then was told it was the wrong one, so the efforts continue.

[cardboardbox]

We have allowed them to own so much of our country, like a roided up Saudi Arabia, that I can't see how we'd unravel that. As with SA and oil, our consumer interests are so tied to China, I see no way out of bed with them, and visa versa. We have a much easier path toward oil independence, in fact, then being able to brake free from China economically.

I liked that Japan's stimulus provided money for companies that would simply move production out of China, and of course even more money if they would move back to Japan.

I would happily pay more for everything if production moved out of China.

[rhd]

Vid posing 5 questions the WHO must answer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIO95lfM3GE

Here are their questions:
1) Why did the WHO downplay human-to-human transmission?
They denied this for weeks despite much evidence that they knew. The WHO bought their propaganda. They said on 1/14 that Chinese authorities haven't found any clear evidence of human-to-human transmission. Yet of the 41 known cases at just 1 Wuhan hospital at the time, 14 had had no contact w the Huanan seafood market where the Chinese said the virus originated. Also, on 1/13, there already was an imported case outside of China, in Thailand. Also, in December, Taiwan had said they had evidence of human-to-human transmission, but the WHO paid them no mind. Short answer: The WHO is in China's pocket.
2) Why did the WHO refuse to brand the outbreak a pandemic?
They didn't do this until 3/11, when already 118,000 people were infected in over 100 countries (more than half the world's total) and over 4000 were dead. And this was 57 days after the first reported case outside China. Short answer: The WHO is in China's pocket.
3) What did the WHO delegation to China achieve?
This started on 1/28. The WHO's chief scientist said that it looked like the outbreak was not growing but shrinking instead. This while the outbreak was growing exponentially in and out of China. And the WHO did not share any crucial data from this meeting w the US CDC. Short answer: The WHO is in China's pocket.
4) Why did the WHO change the name of the Wuhan virus?
"Wuhan virus" is the name the Chinese themselves gave to the virus initially. The actual name the virus is known by in the scientific community is SARS-CoV-2. The WHO decided to change the name, not to the official name, but to something else in order not to stigmatize China. Actually, I don't have a big problem w this one per se. What difference should it make what it's called as long as everyone knows what you're talking about? My problem is the WHO was spending time trying to avoid stigmatizing China when it should have been helping to fight the disease and keep the world safe. Short answer: The WHO is in China's pocket.
5) Will the WHO acknowledge Taiwan's role?
Actually, I think this one is very problematic. The WHO can rightfully assert that its duty is to correspond w member states and Taiwan is not a member state. It can assert that China, which is a member state, claims Taiwan as a province and that and communications between Taiwan and the WHO should be channeled thru China. And Taiwan is not officially recognized as a country by most countries, not even by the US (something I'd like to see changed, but this also probably is very problematic for a number of reasons). But Taiwan has been about the most successful country in dealing w this pandemic (24 mil population, only 395 cases and only 6 deaths). It would be a great benefit to the rest of the world if Taiwan were able to more easily share its knowledge w it. The WHO should be able to make this happen some kind of way if it really is concerned about the world's health. Short answer: The WHO is in China's pocket.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Your first point is why I have long contended the number of infections exceed the number of official cases by a large degree. As the antibody testing becomes more widespread, we should have a clearer picture of the actual infection rate.

I think 2x or 3x or maybe even 5x is reasonable. Earlier in this thread I think I said I thought it was 10x, but I don't think it's that high any more. And I think the antibody tests are going to show us that the American population as whole remains virtually uninfected and therefore not immune.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I guess what I'm saying is, that hypothetically if 1% of the US population has antibodies to COVID-19 (and I don't think the results will be substantially higher than that, might even be lower), that's 5x the official cases, and yet it would be a drop in the bucket toward the needed herd immunity of 60-80%.

[Sour Masher]

I guess what I'm saying is, that hypothetically if 1% of the US population has antibodies to COVID-19 (and I don't think the results will be substantially higher than that, might even be lower), that's 5x the official cases, and yet it would be a drop in the bucket toward the needed herd immunity of 60-80%.

Right, I agree with that. I think 10x or more was likely at the very beginning, but we have upped our testing a great deal, so I think it has fallen down to 5-10x, and yeah, that is not close to any kind of her immunity. Also, if the number is as high as 5-10x, I'd wager a significant number of those cases were mild, and reports are that many mild cases do not result in enough antibodies to create immunity. So yeah, that brings the number of "immune" down substantially. If we continue to play it cautiously, we are getting to a vaccine well before we get to herd immunity.

For me, knowing the actual infection rate isn't about hoping we all have gotten this by now and everything is okay. It is about knowing the real mortality rate. I'm hoping the antibody tests do put the infection rate at 10x or so, because it will mean the worst case mortality rates are off, and it means less deaths than what would be projected with the current known cases and deaths.

[cardboardbox]

I guess what I'm saying is, that hypothetically if 1% of the US population has antibodies to COVID-19 (and I don't think the results will be substantially higher than that, might even be lower), that's 5x the official cases, and yet it would be a drop in the bucket toward the needed herd immunity of 60-80%.

If I were betting, I'd probably go with 10x, but I really do think its higher than 10x. I'd be too afraid to bet on it though.

[The Feral Slasher]

I really feel for people who are losing income and wish our government focus was more on individuals and small businesses. The government response has not been good at all in that regard. But, don't people realize that if the curve has been flattened it is only that way because no one can go out ? Do they think if everyone goes about their normal lives that the cases won't increase exponentially ? And I don't think many people will go out regardless, at least in areas that have been hard hit.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/thousands-converge-protest-michigan-governors-191743463.html

Meshawn Maddock, a board member of the Michigan Conservative Coalition, the nonprofit group that organized the protest, said the demonstration should send a strong message to the governor that it is time to allow Michiganders to return to work, in cases where they can do so safely.

"All of these people still have to go home to the sober reality that they don't have income coming in," Maddock said. "It's heartbreaking."

Maddock said the rising curve of COVID-19 infections has already been flattened, and it is time to get Michigan back to work and recreation, especially in areas of the state that have been less hard-hit.

State infection numbers appeared to flatten somewhat going into last weekend, but both infection and death numbers were up again on Monday. Health officials have recently expressed cautious optimism but have added that it is too soon to say that the infection has reached its peak in Michigan.

[Sour Masher]

It reminds me of the old environmental battles with fishermen. Billy Joel has sung about it, and it is hard not to see both sides on things like this. You had, on the one hand, environmentalists and scientists that knew that over-fishing was not only bad for the ecosystem, but could lead to the collapse of the industry long term, so they called for restrictions. On the other hand, you had people who for generations, this was their only way of life, and following the new regulations meant there wasn't enough money to provide for their families. They also saw the big fisheries that were really doing the damage and they said, why do I now have to suffer for the damage they did?

Likewise, I think there are a lot of people in a lot of places that are hurting and they look at how many cases are in the NYC and surrounding areas, and then look at the cases locally, and say, why do I have to suffer before of what is happening over there? I have bills to pay now and the risk in my area seems minimal. You have places with under 100 cases per 100k people. It seems to many a risk worth taking. That is another reason it is so vital to do more testing, as I think the real numbers are higher and they would give more people pause about taking that risk if they were known.