Election 2020

[Kevin Seitzer]

My handicap of the presidential vote in Texas:

Trump wins by >4% margin: 5%
Trump wins by 2-4% margin: 10%
Trump wins by 0-2% margin: 40%
Biden wins by 0-2% margin: 40%
Biden wins by >2% margin 5%

That means my next expectation for the margin is Trump by about 0.5%.

For reference, the 2016 margin was 9.0% for Trump (52.2% to 43.2% for Clinton), the 2012 margin was 15.8% for Romney (57.2% to 41.4% for Obama), and the 2008 margin was 11.8% for McCain (55.5% to 43.7% for Obama). GW Bush won over 60% of the vote, but I don't think that means much.

I was badly wrong about this. Trump currently holds a 6.0% margin in Texas and will probably end up close to that.

I saw the polling averages at +1.1% for Trump, and saw the turnout surge and thought that would shift things a little the Democratic direction, maybe 1-2% in the best case scenario. The final turnout is going to be around 11.5 million, which exceeded even my expectations, but the polling averages were clearly badly wrong. I also don't know if the turnout surge moved things toward the Democrats or not.

[Kevin Seitzer]

You are right. I was wrong to believe that ads from Republican orgs like TLP were actually reaching and affecting Republican voters. Maybe that had a small impact on white men, because that is just about the only demographic Biden did better in than HRC, but who knows if they even moved the needle there. I concede that point.

But by far the most inexplicable thing to me is the fact that Trump actually gained ground in just about every demographic except white guys. That, to me, is the biggest gut punch. I did not see this reported, but looking it up myself, it looks like Trump did better among AAs than any Republican since 1960 for Nixon against JFK. I cannot comprehend how Trump did better in 2020 than 2016 with these groups. I don't get it at all. All I say was Trump whistleblowing Proud boys, but he somehow doubled his support among black woman and nearly doubled it with black men. I. do. not. get. it. If you buy, which I don't, that Biden lost a bunch of ground for being a "progressive" than what the hell is the downside in running a real progressive next time? None, if that is true, but I don't think it is. No doubt Sanders would have lost even more of the middle, BUT, maybe he would have more than made up for it in other demos. However, Biden did better than Sanders in the AA community in the primaries, so I don't know what the vote breakdown would have been there if Sanders were the nomination. I shudder to think that it could have been worse. I don't get it. Did I say that already? Dems have to figure out how to get that AA vote all the way back. I don't know how they do it, because I don't know how or why they broke Trump in 2020.

Yeah I'm pretty sure that if Sanders (or Warren) was the candidate, he would have been trounced in the electoral college. Which makes me sad, but I think this was the best-case scenario for the Democrats.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah I'm pretty sure that if Sanders (or Warren) was the candidate, he would have been trounced in the electoral college. Which makes me sad, but I think this was the best-case scenario for the Democrats.

I think so too, which is depressing--it is depressing that this is the best we could come up with against the most overtly racist president. If Donald Trump could make major gains among black and Latinx voters, that is a real warning flag for Dems going forward. It means the next guy who is less overtly racist who promises jobs and platinum plans could do even better. Clearly, dems need to improve their messaging and platform in regards to these groups.

ETA: You wanna know where many of those "shy" Trump voters were, a place to start looking is everywhere but white guys, because the polls did not show these major dips in support from 2016 for Biden among AAs, Latinx, women. Until I see and understand real changes in how polls collect info, I won't believe any of them going forward.

[Sour Masher]

And it isn't just about the presidential election where the polls where wrong and dems need to soul search. Who here believed the Republicans would retain the Senate? Who thought they could actually pick up seats in Congress? It's inexplicable to me. Looking at these numbers, if the Republicans put up Nikki Haley in 2024, they will easily win the WH and it could get them even more gains across the board.

[fuhrdog]

Looking ahead to 2024...is the guess Haley vs Harris?

[revo]

Gideon concedes the Maine Senate race.

[revo]

CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden.

[DMT]

CNN just called Wisconsin for Biden.

Really went out on a limb an hour after SoS confirmed all but ~300 of the votes had been counted.

[The Feral Slasher]

And it isn't just about the presidential election where the polls where wrong and dems need to soul search. Who here believed the Republicans would retain the Senate? Who thought they could actually pick up seats in Congress? It's inexplicable to me. Looking at these numbers, if the Republicans put up Nikki Haley in 2024, they will easily win the WH and it could get them even more gains across the board.

I've been seeing a lot of this comment today, just like after 2016. I hope they figure something out in the next 4 years.

[Sour Masher]

My wife and I are at odds over the outcome....I know trump aligns largely with Republican values and they are happy with him, but I really believe the things he said and did beyond that--trying to undermine our democracy, the WS dog whistling, the constant lies--really put him in a special class. For those reason, I believe getting rid of him mattered more than anything. She agrees with everything but the last point. If she could trade a Biden win for a Democratic majority in the Senate, she would. Her premise is that more would get done with Dems in the Senate and Trump than visa versa. On some things, that might be true--Trump would certainly rubber stamp any big stimulus package. But I don't care. I'm taking Trump gone as the most important outcome despite my disappointment in how we got there, and my concerns over the shifting demographics.

[revo]

My wife and I are at odds over the outcome....I know trump aligns largely with Republican values and they are happy with him, but I really believe the things he said and did beyond that--trying to undermine our democracy, the WS dog whistling, the constant lies--really put him in a special class. For those reason, I believe getting rid of him mattered more than anything. She agrees with everything but the last point. If she could trade a Biden win for a Democratic majority in the Senate, she would. Her premise is that more would get done with Dems in the Senate and Trump than visa versa. On some things, that might be true--Trump would certainly rubber stamp any big stimulus package. But I don't care. I'm taking Trump gone as the most important outcome despite my disappointment in how we got there, and my concerns over the shifting demographics.

She might be right. But I'll take Trump gone with a Senate loss any day and Sunday, and I'm sure most feel the same. Maybe they can work together, or maybe they won't. The stock market loves it though!

[umjewman]

My wife and I are at odds over the outcome....I know trump aligns largely with Republican values and they are happy with him, but I really believe the things he said and did beyond that--trying to undermine our democracy, the WS dog whistling, the constant lies--really put him in a special class. For those reason, I believe getting rid of him mattered more than anything. She agrees with everything but the last point. If she could trade a Biden win for a Democratic majority in the Senate, she would. Her premise is that more would get done with Dems in the Senate and Trump than visa versa. On some things, that might be true--Trump would certainly rubber stamp any big stimulus package. But I don't care. I'm taking Trump gone as the most important outcome despite my disappointment in how we got there, and my concerns over the shifting demographics.

I might be overly optimistic, but assuming it continues trending in the right direction, and it's Biden as President, I think that the Republicans who are left in the Senate majority are going to be willing to play ball and talk with Biden. They've worked with him in the past; regardless of what Trump says, they don't really think he's as far left as a Bernie (because of course he is not), and I think they're going to want to try to distance themselves as far as possible from Trump. If the Dems had won the Senate, but Trump is President, Trump could just veto and the Dems would not have enough to override that veto, leading to total gridlock.

Obviously, with a Republican Senate, legislation is going to ultimately be less progressive than many of us in here would like to see. However, I do think that we'll at least get some incremental movement in the right direction, even with a Republican controlled Senate. I do think that a lot of the Republican Senators actually have positive feelings and dealings towards Biden historically that maybe there's at least the chance for some positive movement. But, I dunno.

[Sour Masher]

I might be overly optimistic, but assuming it continues trending in the right direction, and it's Biden as President, I think that the Republicans who are left in the Senate majority are going to be willing to play ball and talk with Biden. They've worked with him in the past; regardless of what Trump says, they don't really think he's as far left as a Bernie (because of course he is not), and I think they're going to want to try to distance themselves as far as possible from Trump. If the Dems had won the Senate, but Trump is President, Trump could just veto and the Dems would not have enough to override that veto, leading to total gridlock.

Obviously, with a Republican Senate, legislation is going to ultimately be less progressive than many of us in here would like to see. However, I do think that we'll at least get some incremental movement in the right direction, even with a Republican controlled Senate. I do think that a lot of the Republican Senators actually have positive feelings and dealings towards Biden historically that maybe there's at least the chance for some positive movement. But, I dunno.

All of this makes logical sense. But then I remember that Obama was also a moderate in many ways, he had Biden on his side working hard, and Mitch McConnell still lead an unified front against him on everything. So IDK. I guess we will see. I very much hope you are right. It is the same argument I used with my wife, though I didn't really have my heart in it, cuz, again, look what happened with Obama.

BTW, what happens if another SC justice goes down in the next two years? A republican senate blocked an appointment for a year before. What stops them from blocking one for 2 or 4 years? Anyone know?

[umjewman]

All of this makes logical sense. But then I remember that Obama was also a moderate in many ways, he had Biden on his side working hard, and Mitch McConnell still lead an unified front against him on everything. So IDK. I guess we will see. I very much hope you are right. It is the same argument I used with my wife, though I didn't really have my heart in it, cuz, again, look what happened with Obama.

BTW, what happens if another SC justice goes down in the next two years? A republican senate blocked an appointment for a year before. What stops them from blocking one for 2 or 4 years? Anyone know?

Obama was black though. It shouldn't matter, but it did.

But who knows?

[revo]

All of this makes logical sense. But then I remember that Obama was also a moderate in many ways, he had Biden on his side working hard, and Mitch McConnell still lead an unified front against him on everything. So IDK. I guess we will see. I very much hope you are right. It is the same argument I used with my wife, though I didn't really have my heart in it, cuz, again, look what happened with Obama.

BTW, what happens if another SC justice goes down in the next two years? A republican senate blocked an appointment for a year before. What stops them from blocking one for 2 or 4 years? Anyone know?

Well, the 2022 midterms are also bad for the GOP senate, so it could bite them in the ass. Who knows.