Election 2020

[GwynnInTheHall]

Can we fucking vote already!

[Teenwolf]

Right after I came out last week saying Biden needs to focus on his policy platform, specifically to entice young vpters and progressives, Bernie Sanders was reportedly saying the same things behind closed doors. He was asked about his comments, and essentially repeated everything I've been saying. You cannot win running an entirely negative campaign, only highlighting your opponents negatives and not advocating your own positives.

The really funny thing to me is whereas I was treated like garbage, called an idiot and a MAGAt and so on, how do you think mainstream Democrats responded to Bernie echoing my thoughts?

Former Presidential candidate John Delaney came out in support of the statements, and he constantly smeared and derided Bernie's policies throughout the primaries. So I know all of you guys are completely full of shit when you attack me for such commonsense ideas that even a right wing corporate Democrat can agree with me on. These aren't radical concepts, courting your own voters rather than only courting conservatives.

Sanders: "I think Biden is in an excellent position to win this election. But, I think we've gotta do more as a campaign than just go after Trump. Trump is a disaster, I think most people know it. But we also have to give people a reason to vote for Joe Biden. Joe has some pretty strong positions on the economy, and I think we should be talking about that more than we have. Now, we have done 8 battleground states' virtual rallies, to several million people, and i think what people want to hear is what Joe is going to do to raise the minimum wage, and he supports a fifteen dollar an hour minimum wage. What he's going to do to make sure that we create millions of good paying jobs in this country, and he has a very strong plan for the infrastructure. He knows that we can create jobs combating climate change, which, God knows we need to do, seeing what's going on the west coast right now. They want equal pay for equal work. They want us to expand health care for as many people as possible. Lower the cost of prescription drugs. I think those are some of the issues people want to hear more from the Biden campaign about."

Instead, they're pumping Russiagate, and constantly messaging to the right wing. Police funding won't be touched, military spending might go up, Wall Street "nothing will change for you", the environment "it was a vicious rumor Biden might ban fracking", and on and on and on. He always takes the furthest right position while never publicly advocating his own platform.

[Sour Masher]

It is a strawman. Of course, Biden needs to do more than say Trump=bad. I chalk it up to you being in Canada and not seeing the constant ads I am seeing. Most Biden ads I have seen here in NY has been almost positive to a fault. Yes, Biden himself often says Trump=bad and Biden himself could and should be more specific and targeted with his platform. But anyone suggesting that Joe Biden's campaigns and the millions they are spending on ads are focused entirely on Anti-Trump messaging is living in an echo chamber and has not actually seen the many ads they run that is all about positive messaging for America and its future. Trump is the one who is using fear messaging.

If you want to criticize the Biden campaign, focus on how he should move away from the abstract warm and fuzzy messages that remind me of the Hope messaging Obama ran on, because I have seen a lot of that. That part is fair. But to suggest that Biden is just going negative on Trump isn't. He has uplifting scores playing in the background suggesting a brighter tomorrow in most of his ads. They do often seem targeted to centrists, that is true, but many of them don't even mention Trump by name.

[chancellor]

It is a strawman. Of course, Biden needs to do more than say Trump=bad. I chalk it up to you being in Canada and not seeing the constant ads I am seeing. Most Biden ads I have seen here in NY has been almost positive to a fault. Yes, Biden himself often says Trump=bad and Biden himself could and should be more specific and targeted with his platform. But anyone suggesting that Joe Biden's campaigns and the millions they are spending on ads are focused entirely on Anti-Trump messaging is living in an echo chamber and has not actually seen the many ads they run that is all about positive messaging for America and its future. Trump is the one who is using fear messaging.

On the TV ad side, both groups are playing about the same game - let the 501c groups pound highly to ultra-negative advertising, and have their campaigns blend positive and negative advertising. Trump's campaign is clearly going negative on law and order, but the jobs/financial ads are positive for the most part.

[chancellor]

Can we fucking vote already!

Vote early, vote often, my friend!

[Teenwolf]

On the TV ad side, both groups are playing about the same game - let the 501c groups pound highly to ultra-negative advertising, and have their campaigns blend positive and negative advertising. Trump's campaign is clearly going negative on law and order, but the jobs/financial ads are positive for the most part.

I'm not sure when Chancellor became the least biased voice of reason on everything regarding the election, but here we are.

[Sour Masher]

So few conservatives post here these days, I figured I would play the role to post this, which I think anyone would have to admit was both cringey and funny. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kam...roundtable.amp

[GwynnInTheHall]

So few conservatives post here these days, I figured I would play the role to post this, which I think anyone would have to admit was both cringey and funny. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kam...roundtable.amp

She ain't wrong.

[Sour Masher]

She ain't wrong.

The attempt to recover was the funny bit.

[Teenwolf]

Now here's a Republican I could fully support.

I bet they win, having an R next to their name plus pulling the progressives and the black-pilled anarchists like me. Probably likely to get executed by the police pretty quickly, i would think.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...y-sheriff.html

[revo]

In a town hall event yesterday, Dopey actually said this:

"The wearing of masks has proven to lessen the spread of COVID. Why don’t you support a mandate for national mask-wearing? And why don’t you wear a mask more often?" asked attendee Julie Bard, who said she voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

"Well, I do wear them when I have to, and when I’m in hospitals and other locations," Trump replied. "But I will say this: They said at the Democrat convention they're going to do a national mandate. They never did it because they’ve checked out and they didn’t do it. And a good question is, you ask why Joe Biden – they said we’re going to do a national mandate on masks."

Moderator George Stephanopoulos pointed out that Biden encouraged governors to institute mask mandates.

"Well no, but he didn’t do it. I mean, he never did it," Trump said.


Psssst, Dopey.....Biden doesn't hold public office. He's not president. You are, you royal schmuck!

[DMT]

And yet he can go lower.

https://twitter.com/AmerIndependent/status/1306343848680054784?s=09

He's a fucking sociopath.

[Sour Masher]

New sexual assault allegations against Trump, not that it will matter.

[umjewman]

New sexual assault allegations against Trump, not that it will matter.

Nope, it will be the same old fake news hoax from the deep state. Then there will be a meme of Biden sniffing someone's hair and talk about how he's a pedophile. Just another day.

[frae]

OK taken a bit of a break in posting any updates because there is a lot of noise in polling around conventions, but things seem to be settling down in most cases. A few outlier polls that both sides can point to, but overall things remain relatively unchanged and that has to be good for Biden as Trump is running out of real estate to find something to point to that will turn it around. Biden holds a 6.7 point lead in the 538 national average and just today Cook Political moved Arizona to lean D. Cook also earlier last week moved FL back to toss up and Nevada back to lean D.

WI and MI have been polling very well for Biden and MN might be the state that could move to Trum if WI and MI were going that way but the NYT poll this week shows MN still safe to me. PA, my state, continues to lag in some polls compared to WI and MI as far as being safer for Biden.

So interesting ways Biden can win while losing PA. Assuming he gets AZ, WI and MI back he can lose PA and all the rest of the 16 states and that would put us at 269-267 with the two districts in Maine and Nebraska that are currently tossups still in play. If Biden were to win either of those he would get to 270.

I remain hopeful that Biden wins PA, WI, MI, MN and AZ and this isn't that close.

As for the Senate this Lindsay Graham is in a real race thing is looking more and more real. If the black turn out is really high and if Harrison can just peel off some moderate Republicans who knows. Quinnipiac had it at 48-48 this week.

McSally looks like she is toast in AZ, she seems lost on what to do with her campaign. Just this week she didn't attend the Trump rally in her own state as I guess she is distancing herself from him now, either way she is going to lose.

Susan Collins had some more bad polling this week, but that Quinnipiac poll seemed a bit of an outlier, that said I would be betting against her winning as of now.

Still want to see some polling in CO, but I don't see how Gardner wins this time with demographics and a presidential election happening with Trump on the ballot.

Jones is going to lose Alabama, same reason Gardner is going to lose CO presidential election with Trump on the ballot kills him in AL.

So that would be +2 for the dems and they need +3 and Biden to win or +4 if Biden loses. So for me this comes down to NC, IA, MT, GA, and SC. A wide range of demos in those states so hard to tell where they all truly stand without more good polling. NC looks truly to be a tossup, IA demos fits that rust belt demo somewhat and was an Obama state so it could trend well, MT is only in play because it is Bullock running, GA Osoff is running a pretty good campaign and the Abrams ground game seems to be helping we will see though. The Loeffler race is still too undefined to do anything with. SC I already covered, I'd still bet on Graham but the polling data has not been great for him.

So overall you have to prefer where Biden sits and the D's sit because they have so many more outs. I don't know where Trump can play offense besides maybe MN and NV and in the senate outside of AL the only race that is even rated as a lean that D's are defending is MI which I think will trend more to a likely. This is by no means a lock either way, but it is like playing poker you have to like the cards the Democrats are holding with all the different ways they can win.