Election 2020

[umjewman]

I agree, the panic from moderates is leading to some coalescing around Biden.

If Biden has enough of a resurgence to stop Bernie hitting 50%, and the Dems steal it from Bernie (as they admitted they're going to attempt to do if it goes to a 2nd vote at the convention), they will not only lose to Trump in a landslide, they will be buried as a party. Rightfully so.

It should terrify you that every Democrat running, as well as many of the Dem power brokers, are running this exact play to screw Bernie publicly.

I was confident after Nevada that Sanders could lose SC by less than 5 pts, or possibly win SC outright, but I'm thinking it could be more like 10-12 pt Biden win now, which would be perfect for the media to push him to big gains on super Tuesday. Biden got a sizable boost in Nevada from the Harry Reid machine, and I suspect in a non-caucus state, that establishment support gives an even bigger boost.

I could be wrong, I'm getting mixed messages on SC. It's a good thing the early momentum for Sanders pushed him to a huge early vote lead in California (presumably, based on polls), and possibly slightly ahead in Texas. He'll need the buffer after SC tightens things up, and of course the media want it to tighten for ratings, so the Biden comeback narrative is ready to print.

Bernie overtook Biden in black voting nationally recently, but not in SC for some reason.

The formal endorsement from Clyburn gives Biden a double digit win in SC, IMO. What that means long term is anyone's guess.

[nullnor]

bernie's being stupid if he doesn't run commercials of pictures of him being arrested at college of civil rights protests.

[nullnor]

The formal endorsement from Clyburn gives Biden a double digit win in SC, IMO. What that means long term is anyone's guess.

Jim Clyburn worked with Biden a long time in the Senate. Bernie too. probably why he got misty a little when introducing Biden. i watched PBS BBC world news last night. they had a black woman, in your face, for like an hour talking to Christiane Amanpour about how great Sanders is.

Biden is not going to get away with simply thinking he can get the black vote because he was vice president to a black president and trying to ride Obama's coattails even without an official endorsement. even though Obama was apparently for so-called white Oligarchs himself.

[Teenwolf]

Oh no, Klobuchar is toast, as well.

IMO, it's down to three people, Sanders, Biden and Mayor Pete. With Bloomberg still somewhat in the mix for those who only vote via political ads they've seen.

Buttigieg has slightly greater chance at the Presidency than I do at this point. He's set to finish somewhere between 4th and 6th in SC, his polls are down across the board, and he's looked like a whiner in the last few debates with little substance. With SC as a weak launching point, I think he likely gets shut out all over on Super Tuesday.

Its Sanders and Biden to win legitimately, although Biden is sure to step on his own dick a few more times, making it unlikely he can show the competance to win back his early soft support. Warren has a small chance at the DNC deciding to swing to her (she represents diversity + moderate/progressive balance in the DNC minds), but that seems like a microscopic possibility.

[Teenwolf]

Jim Clyburn worked with Biden a long time in the Senate. Bernie too. probably why he got misty a little when introducing Biden. i watched PBS BBC world news last night. they had a black woman, in your face, for like an hour talking to Christiane Amanpour about how great Sanders is.

Biden is not going to get away with simply thinking he can get the black vote because he was vice president to a black president and trying to ride Obama's coattails even without an official endorsement. even though Obama was apparently for so-called white Oligarchs himself.

I believe the black support numbers from SC that I've seen show a split around Biden 35/Steyer 25/Sanders 20. Steyer's recent dip is going more to help Biden than Sanders.

But you're right that he's losing black support nationally. He had a 40 pt lead a year ago, now they're essentially tied, and Bernie has the huge lead with Latino voters and other minorities. He won 73% of the Nevada latino vote. Very good sign for Texas.

[Teenwolf]

bernie's being stupid if he doesn't run commercials of pictures of him being arrested at college of civil rights protests.

He has a t-shirt with the image printed on it, but I think it's really gauche. Too in your face.

As far as digital ads that use his civil rights protest background, he released one today.

[nullnor]

you know, figuring all this stuff out, and especially finding those moments you can make lite of all the crapola is kind of fun. not that Biden trying to steal the black vote for nothing is cool. Bernie definitely got the shaft on that shit. i remember my co-workers trying to decide between HRC and Obama. the black wife wanted a female and my black co-worker, her husband wanted Obama. but his wife made more money than him. eventually they decided Obama.

i wished i had shown that picture of Bernie being arrested. actually maybe that was after Obama. anyways, Bernie is selling himself short in the black community.

what had Biden ever done for the black community? i don't get it.

[nullnor]

someday everyone will be black. whatever that means. skin color wise. watch the remake of the movie the time machine. but right now, it means black pride. it means the same thing 8000 years in the future. humanity. that was the whole thing about the 3rd matrix movie. like they were channeling roots. i never watched that.

that's funny. what is this whole struggle about. is it rich vs poor. or maybe it's left vs right. it's black vs white? establishment vs in establishment.

it's not left vs right anymore. it's certainly not conservative vs liberal. that's for sure. the game is so fucked up now, truthfully only a 79 year old guy with a heart condition has any idea how to start to fix it.

[Teenwolf]

someday everyone will be black. whatever that means. skin color wise. watch the remake of the movie the time machine. but right now, it means black pride. it means the same thing 8000 years in the future. humanity. that was the whole thing about the 3rd matrix movie. like they were channeling roots. i never watched that.

that's funny. what is this whole struggle about. is it rich vs poor. or maybe it's left vs right. it's black vs white? establishment vs in establishment.

it's not left vs right anymore. it's certainly not conservative vs liberal. that's for sure. the game is so fucked up now, truthfully only a 79 year old guy with a heart condition has any idea how to start to fix it.

Because of rising inequality, it's now establishment vs anti-establishment, and the anti-establishment candidates are winning. First Trump, next Sanders. There are enough non-partisan typical non-voters who normally ignore politics but view Trump or Sanders as a tool to dismantle the system from within and are attracted to that idea.

Lefty anti-establishment (Sanders, AOC, etc) seek to dismantle the system of money flowing through politics by limiting corporate influence/corruption, and forms policy based on helping the betterment of people, not the strength of the GDP, the stock exchange, or whatever bullshit the money people tell you matters.

Right wing populism, on the other hand, is entirely about self-dealing and corruption, and abuse of power, all as a point of pride, exhibiting cruelty and manipulating low info voters through extreme fear mongering and lies. They seek to dismantle the systems of public utility in favor of making the rich richer, while claiming that all the corporate giveaways boosting the stock market actually signs of a strong economy when the average wage for workers stays stagnant.

With all the hatred and rage and fun to be had shitting on libs, it's hard for a certain type of right winger to avoid being sucked into, so the brick throwers and the establishment united behind Trump. It feels like winning to them. I have a suspicion the Dems will do the same for Bernie, despite the current mixed messaging. If there's one thing establishment Dems are good at, its losing and giving their opponent everything they wanted.

[The Feral Slasher]

Oh no, Klobuchar is toast, as well.

IMO, it's down to three people, Sanders, Biden and Mayor Pete. With Bloomberg still somewhat in the mix for those who only vote via political ads they've seen.

Mayo Pete has no chance. Biden does seem to be rebounding, at least in SC

[GwynnInTheHall]

He has a t-shirt with the image printed on it, but I think it's really gauche. Too in your face.

As far as digital ads that use his civil rights protest background, he released one today.

Good Stuff.


Unless you're well off...….

[Sour Masher]

Good Stuff.


Unless you're well off...….

Interesting comment and thought process. Seems to make it an us vs them thing and embrace the zero sum assumptions that the gain of the impoverished will come at the expense of the wealthy. Not a big problem for voter turn out, I think, if all voters assume "the well off" is anyone making more than themselves. It will be a problematic message if many voters in the middle class think it will be coming at their expense. Well off is pretty broad. Covers a lot of ground, and subjective. I know people making mad bank who would not call themselves well off, and others making well less that would.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Interesting comment and thought process. Seems to make it an us vs them thing and embrace the zero sum assumptions that the gain of the impoverished will come at the expense of the wealthy. Not a big problem for voter turn out, I think, if all voters assume "the well off" is anyone making more than themselves. It will be a problematic message if many voters in the middle class think it will be coming at their expense. Well off is pretty broad. Covers a lot of ground, and subjective. I know people making mad bank who would not call themselves well off, and others making well less that would.

Here's what I feel is "well off' anyone who can buy a new car every 2-4 years. Non Lease.

I could say anyone who has over 250K in a 401K

Anyone who doesn't have to worry about healthcare for their entire family.

Anyone who can say, this is my last $20 and that means in their pocket only.

Well off does indeed mean--better than me. And THAT is what resonates with Sanders supporters.

The fact B Fly equated HRC voters with Trump voters tells you--TOO many people vote their pocketbook over their ethics, which is a choice, but WHY we struggle as a society.

We either take care of everyone, or ourselves. It's pretty clear.

You can say it's complicated, but it's really not.

You either give MORE than the Govt will take or allow the Govt to take on your behalf. To do otherwise it to be a selfish prick.

But there are a lot of those out there and they're totally comfortable being exactly that.

And yes, if you can afford buying a new car every 2-4 years and are balking at Sander's platforms--you're a selfish prick.

[GwynnInTheHall]

So, my wife says that if I want to win people over to my side I should try to find a nicer way to say things.


I responded, if they haven't changed their minds yet, they won't.

I'm not going to beg people to do the right thing.

I'm going to expect it and when they don't, point it out, push it in their faces shame them as they should be.

If you're a fucking selfish prick, own it, wear it proudly because we all see it anyway.

Goodnight

[Sour Masher]

The car thing being a standard seems arbitrary. I drive a 2008 Honda Fit that I won't be able to afford to replace for years, but I make decent money, and work as much extra as I can to not run out of money each month. Combined, my wife and I make good money. Top 25% for households, though that jump up is very recent. All our money goes to my two young kids, their day care (two kids in daycare was over 23k last year), my house mortgage, my disabled mom, my wife's credit card bills and significant student loans, and all the stuff that keeps breaking in the house we just bought.

I think income normalized for cost of living where you live, and then factoring in how many kids you have, dependent relatives, outstanding debt, etc would be the best measure. We do have good health care, though. All we have to worry about is co pays on that front. But the rest of your list--401ks, living month to month, the cars, we fit the bill of not well off. Our current salary would say otherwise, though. Maybe eventually our life style will catch up to that label. Call me a selfish prick, but I hope so. I grew up poor and lived poor most of my life. It will be nice when I finally get out of the red and feel financially secure. Again, our income increases are recent, as we are both PHDs that lived off grad stipends and side hustles for way too long, and then not a lot to start, and our debts and debits for kids and my mom are large. Our lifestyle and finances do not match out current income.

Sanders plans would take more from us, but give us a lot too, with child care, help for my mom, student loan help for my wife. Not everyone sees that trade off, though. Sanders needs to message it well. If he says he will take from the well off, he should make sure to remind what he is giving to everyone, because some of those making good money are still not feeling well off, because of the things they pay for now that he wants the government to cover. He will focus on the gives. His opponents on the takes. People are self interested, and so the messaging battle here will be key.