Election 2020

[Teenwolf]

Buttigieg is smart and articulate enough to successfully explain, as he has, why he had to fire the police chief, and why at the same time, any such tapes emerging would reflect values his is diametrically opposed to. Certainly, this stuff plays into how poorly he is doing among black voters, but based on my experiences, I wonder how much homophobia plays into it as well. The black community, on the whole, has been less supportive of things like gay marriage, but I have not seen a recent breakdown of their support for electing a gay president.

Still, any time I get worried about such things, I remember what Obama was able to do. The right person with the right message at the right time can overcome biases. I don't know if a 37 year old with no national political experience has what it takes right now, but I do think he'd destroy Trump in debates.

Okay, put aside Buttigieg's inability to appeal to black voters. One of the recent national polls asked "Would you like the country to continue on the path set out by Barack Obama or would you prefer more substantial systemic change?" or something like this, and the vote total showed something like 63/37 split supporting greater change. So I think there's less appetite for a return to normalcy than most pundits or observers think there is.

You don't think his massive shift on Medicare for All is a major red flag for voters who have paid attention? He was on Morning Joe in February defending Medicare for All, then when he thinks it's politically convenient, he shifts to attacking Warren on it, and defending a public option. From everything I've heard, the public option would not work. But the major shift shows that he's completely disingenuous, and honesty is a super important metric to voters. I've heard Buttigieg's recent small bump has been at the expense of Warren, which makes sense as they both have the wealthiest and highest educated bases, whereas Bernie and Biden have more working class voters. So really, if Buttigieg does rise at all, it might continue to cut into Warren's slim advantage over Bernie. I'm optimistic that Bernie has a shot to win over enough Biden voters, depress enough current Biden voters, as well as turn out more unlikely voters to break the polling across the board and pull out a win. One of those recent polls from Michigan showed Bernie with 74% of voters age 18-29. If he can turn out significantly more young voters in 2020, as young voters turned out at higher rates in the midterms than the smaller increase in older demographic turnout, then he has a good chance to upset polling. Especially since polling rarely properly samples younger voters.

Recent polling showing consistently Biden 26-29, Warren 21-24, Bernie 19, and that all looks good to me for this point in the race. Bernie's recent surge is probably fueled by the AOC, Tlaib, and Omar endorsements. Hopefully the momentum continues.

[nullnor]

... huh?

I mean in general. politics just seems like a huge waste of time.

[Ken]

I mean in general. politics just seems like a huge waste of time.

True.

[Sour Masher]

Okay, put aside Buttigieg's inability to appeal to black voters. One of the recent national polls asked "Would you like the country to continue on the path set out by Barack Obama or would you prefer more substantial systemic change?" or something like this, and the vote total showed something like 63/37 split supporting greater change. So I think there's less appetite for a return to normalcy than most pundits or observers think there is.

You don't think his massive shift on Medicare for All is a major red flag for voters who have paid attention? He was on Morning Joe in February defending Medicare for All, then when he thinks it's politically convenient, he shifts to attacking Warren on it, and defending a public option. From everything I've heard, the public option would not work. But the major shift shows that he's completely disingenuous, and honesty is a super important metric to voters. I've heard Buttigieg's recent small bump has been at the expense of Warren, which makes sense as they both have the wealthiest and highest educated bases, whereas Bernie and Biden have more working class voters. So really, if Buttigieg does rise at all, it might continue to cut into Warren's slim advantage over Bernie. I'm optimistic that Bernie has a shot to win over enough Biden voters, depress enough current Biden voters, as well as turn out more unlikely voters to break the polling across the board and pull out a win. One of those recent polls from Michigan showed Bernie with 74% of voters age 18-29. If he can turn out significantly more young voters in 2020, as young voters turned out at higher rates in the midterms than the smaller increase in older demographic turnout, then he has a good chance to upset polling. Especially since polling rarely properly samples younger voters.

Recent polling showing consistently Biden 26-29, Warren 21-24, Bernie 19, and that all looks good to me for this point in the race. Bernie's recent surge is probably fueled by the AOC, Tlaib, and Omar endorsements. Hopefully the momentum continues.

Interesting take. My assumption is Buttigieg's rise would be to replace Biden as the more moderate candidate, but you are suggesting it would be at Warren's expense. Maybe it would be both. I just don't see the country being uniformally left enough to where there isn't significant support during the primaries for at least one candidate to the right of Sanders and Warren.

[revo]

Just a day after the NY Times/Siena poll showed some concerning news for the good guys, we have this poll from the ABC News/Wash Post that shows Trump getting absolutely battered by all comers:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post	Biden 56, Trump 39	Biden +17
General Election: Trump vs. Warren	ABC News/Wash Post	Warren 55, Trump 40	Warren +15
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	ABC News/Wash Post	Sanders 55, Trump 41	Sanders +14
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	ABC News/Wash Post	Buttigieg 52, Trump 41	Buttigieg +11
General Election: Trump vs. Harris	ABC News/Wash Post	Harris 51, Trump 42	Harris +9

[DMT]

Just a day after the NY Times/Siena poll showed some concerning news for the good guys, we have this poll from the ABC News/Wash Post that shows Trump getting absolutely battered by all comers:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post	Biden 56, Trump 39	Biden +17
General Election: Trump vs. Warren	ABC News/Wash Post	Warren 55, Trump 40	Warren +15
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders	ABC News/Wash Post	Sanders 55, Trump 41	Sanders +14
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg	ABC News/Wash Post	Buttigieg 52, Trump 41	Buttigieg +11
General Election: Trump vs. Harris	ABC News/Wash Post	Harris 51, Trump 42	Harris +9

But national polls aren't particularly relevant in our fucked up system.

[Sour Masher]

But national polls aren't particularly relevant in our fucked up system.

Sadly true. Who wins the battleground states are all that matter. Trump knows this, and being a sociopath who only cares about himself and loyalty to him, that is why he is totally blatant in not caring about and punishing those states he can't possibly win, like California. Yet another reason why the EC is flawed. Abandoning the EC is a pipe dream, but I really wish every state would adopt a split EC set up like Maine and Nebraska. It is a great solution that keeps the EC while making everyone's vote matter more, and ensuring a president tries to govern for all states, and not just ones he can win.

[Ken]

Abandoning the EC is a pipe dream, but I really wish every state would adopt a split EC set up like Maine and Nebraska. It is a great solution that keeps the EC while making everyone's vote matter more, and ensuring a president tries to govern for all states, and not just ones he can win.

I agree, and that idea just makes too much sense to me. It forces candidates on both sides of the aisle to care about your state. It makes me wonder what motivation each state has for not doing this? Is it just the dominant party in each state stomping it down?

[Sour Masher]

I agree, and that idea just makes too much sense to me. It forces candidates on both sides of the aisle to care about your state. It makes me wonder what motivation each state has for not doing this? Is it just the dominant party in each state stomping it down?

Yes, I imagine that is the case. It is surprising to me, though, that purple states that go back and forth don't go for this. It makes the stakes less all of nothing, but I am guessing such states like to feel more important, and splitting the EC may lessen the focus on them from presidential candidates.

[Kevin Seitzer]

If you're a Democrat in California or a Republican in Texas, you don't want to do this because it will cost your party 10-15 electoral votes, which is a huge cost to pay for the added attention your state would get in the campaign.

[Sour Masher]

If you're a Democrat in California or a Republican in Texas, you don't want to do this because it will cost your party 10-15 electoral votes, which is a huge cost to pay for the added attention your state would get in the campaign.

Right, which is why I'd think purple states would be more likely to do this, but if they do, I guess presidents would campaign there less. To me, that would be a benefit. Being in Florida during an election is non-stop ads. It gets old.

[revo]

Democrat Steve Beshear has defeated incumbent GOP Gov. Matt Bevin despite Trump making at least 5 appearances in the state, including just the other day. Bevin, although unpopular, won the 2015 race by 9 pts in a state Trump won by 30.

[revo]

Dems appear poised to flip the House and Senate in Virginia, controlling both for the first time since 1994.

[Sour Masher]

Democrat Steve Beshear has defeated incumbent GOP Gov. Matt Bevin despite Trump making at least 5 appearances in the state, including just the other day. Bevin, although unpopular, won the 2015 race by 9 pts in a state Trump won by 30.

Ha, that is a blast from my past living in Kentucky. I think you mean Andy Beshear, his son, although I bet his pop could have won too. If he is anything like his pop, he will be a blue dog, but that is to be expected in Kentucky, and a massive upgrade over a guy who was ruining education in KY (and that is saying something).

[nots]

Ha, that is a blast from my past living in Kentucky. I think you mean Andy Beshear, his son, although I bet his pop could have won too. If he is anything like his pop, he will be a blue dog, but that is to be expected in Kentucky, and a massive upgrade over a guy who was ruining education in KY (and that is saying something).

Where did you live in Ky? I spent 14 years just south of Lex Vegas