Election 2020

[onejayhawk]

The 2018 election is in the books with a clear win for the Democrats, but not the hoped-for wave. A great deal is not known about 2020, beginning with whether the current President will run for re-election. We may not know that for sure for most of another year. By then the Democrat's traditional gaggle will be complete. RCP put out an article covering a number of the candidates expressing interest by visiting Iowa and New Hampshire.

For the Republicans, that includes Jeff Flake, outgoing Senator from Arizona and John Kasich, one of Trump's last opponents in 2016. Neither is generating much interest nor likely to run unless Trump does not. In that case Ted Cruz and VP Mike Pence will also have a hat to throw in the ring. Four Democrats are listed, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Corey Booker, and Kamala Harris.

The takeaway is a quote from Tom Rath, “you’ve got a sense…that no one is particularly interested in the middle.”

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/21/challenges_to_trump_in_2020_starting_to_take_shape_138715.html

J

[revo]

Republicans were outvoted 53-45 in the House. If this was a Presidential election, it would be a massive landslide, but it’s not a Blue Wave in your opinion? Sigh. What’s the point in answering here.

[fuhrdog]

If the Dems can't win in 2020 then disband the party.

[onejayhawk]

If the Dems can't win in 2020 then disband the party.

I doubt they can win the White House in 2020 unless a recession is in progress. Trump has been too good with the economy.

Republicans were outvoted 53-45 in the House. If this was a Presidential election, it would be a massive landslide, but it’s not a Blue Wave in your opinion? Sigh. What’s the point in answering here.

I will assume you are just being a homer that thinks every win is huge. There have been studies which try to quantify the concept of a wave based on past experience.

Based on our analysis of historical elections, we applied the following definitions:

U.S. House—Democrats gain 48 seats
U.S. Senate—Democrats gain seven seats
Gubernatorial races—Democrats gain seven seats
State legislative races—Democrats gain 494 seats

https://ballotpedia.org/Wave_elections_(1918-2016)/Full_report

Democrats did well, but not that well. In particular they lost ground in the Senate. Their best performance was not the House but the Governors.

BTW Traditionally a landslide is 10%, last occurring in 1984. Ironic, don't you think?

J

[revo]

Lol, ok. You’re deluding yourself.

The economy is as strong as it’s been in decades, yet the GOP got routed.

The Dems flipped 40 House seats
The Dems flipped 7 Governor’s races
The Dems flipped 380 state legislative seats, and that’s in addition to 44 they already flipped in special elections during the year
The Dems flipped 7 state legislatures
The Dems flipped 4 state attorney generals, giving them a majority now
The Dems gained 14% white female voters
The Dems flipped two former GOP strongholds

Granted, they lost two Senate seats. You have to admit those were weak Dem incumbents and the Senate map favored the GOP from the get-go. And they lost a couple of high profile races in Florida and Georgia, but both would have been unprecedented. And they nearly ousted your hero Ted Cruz. But like CBB, keep hanging your hat on ancient races and semantics.

You’re like the guy who says, no, losing 12-0 isn’t a beatdown, it has to be 13-0. This was a beatdown.the GOP is hemorrhaging voters it cannot afford to lose.

[revo]

And did you even read the article you posted (which was a very good study). A “wave” in the modern era is defined as:

House : 30 seats
Senate: 6
Governorships: 5
State Legislature seats: -344

Since they define a “tsunami” as exceeding in three of those, it will be classified as a “Blue Tsunami.” Thanks for making my argument!

[Teenwolf]

And did you even read the article you posted (which was a very good study). A “wave” in the modern era is defined as:

House : 30 seats
Senate: 6
Governorships: 5
State Legislature seats: -344

Since they define a “tsunami” as exceeding in three of those, it will be classified as a “Blue Tsunami.” Thanks for making my argument!

Look at millenials. They are literally taking over the voting constituency year by year, and they're further left than I am!

18-29 year olds voted Dem 2-1 in the midterms. As long as Dems don't nominate another Clinton-esque candidate, that voting gap will grow. In 2020, millenials will grow as a voting bloc by 20% over 2018, and will increase their influence year over year.

[swampdragon]

Look at millenials. They are literally taking over the voting constituency year by year, and they're further left than I am!

18-29 year olds voted Dem 2-1 in the midterms. As long as Dems don't nominate another Clinton-esque candidate, that voting gap will grow. In 2020, millenials will grow as a voting bloc by 20% over 2018, and will increase their influence year over year.

Interesting idea, just not sure it is true.
Find some data on this. Yes the block is growing but has started out such a small percentage.
Maybe there is good data on O'rourke out there

[Bernie Brewer]

Lol, ok. You’re deluding yourself.

The economy is as strong as it’s been in decades, yet the GOP got routed.

The Dems flipped 40 House seats
The Dems flipped 7 Governor’s races
The Dems flipped 380 state legislative seats, and that’s in addition to 44 they already flipped in special elections during the year
The Dems flipped 7 state legislatures
The Dems flipped 4 state attorney generals, giving them a majority now
The Dems gained 14% white female voters
The Dems flipped two former GOP strongholds

Granted, they lost two Senate seats. You have to admit those were weak Dem incumbents and the Senate map favored the GOP from the get-go. And they lost a couple of high profile races in Florida and Georgia, but both would have been unprecedented. And they nearly ousted your hero Ted Cruz. But like CBB, keep hanging your hat on ancient races and semantics.

You’re like the guy who says, no, losing 12-0 isn’t a beatdown, it has to be 13-0. This was a beatdown.the GOP is hemorrhaging voters it cannot afford to lose.

To me, while I will admit the Democrats had a great showing in the midterms, are these changes permanent. Will those white women voters continue to vote for Democrats in the future, or are they simply anti-Trump and when he is gone will they flip back to thier GOP roots?

[hacko]

To me, while I will admit the Democrats had a great showing in the midterms, are these changes permanent. Will those white women voters continue to vote for Democrats in the future, or are they simply anti-Trump and when he is gone will they flip back to thier GOP roots?

Probably will depend on how much DAMAGE- Trump AND THE REPUBLICAN’S do in the next 2 years. Coming from someone who used to be a Republican the farther right the party became the more Democrats I voted for. I just don’t ever see me going back.

[revo]

To me, while I will admit the Democrats had a great showing in the midterms, are these changes permanent. Will those white women voters continue to vote for Democrats in the future, or are they simply anti-Trump and when he is gone will they flip back to thier GOP roots?

Great question. Yes, I think they are anti-Trump and once the GOP gets over this mania, they will regain many back.

[B-Fly]

Great question. Yes, I think they are anti-Trump and once the GOP gets over this mania, they will regain many back.

Which could be as soon as 2020 if the GOP jettisons Trump (whether for Flake, Kasich or a wild card like Haley), but I am hopeful that they won't flip back for Trump in 2020.

[revo]

Interesting idea, just not sure it is true.
Find some data on this. Yes the block is growing but has started out such a small percentage.
Maybe there is good data on O'rourke out there

It’s true:
“According to CIRCLEat the Tufts University Tisch College, approximately 31 percent of youth (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2018 midterms, an extraordinary increase over the CIRCLE estimate in 2014 and the highest rate of turnout in at least 25 years. In 2014, IOP estimates that approximately 10.8 million young Americans voted (Democrats preferred, 54 percent-43 percent), compared to 14.7 million in 2018 (Democrats preferred, 67 percent-32 percent). The actual number of Republican votes cast by those under age 30 remained stable from 2014 to 2018, while nearly all of the nearly 4 million increase in turnout came from those supporting Democrats.

Voters under 30 (estimated share of 13 percent of electorate) were credited by NBC Newsanalysts as one of the key groups that led to a Democratic takeover of the House, along with African-Americans (estimated share of 11 percent), Hispanic/Latino Americans (share 11 percent), and those with no religious preference (17 percent). Exit polls have indicated that voters under 30 preferred Democrats by a +31-percentage point margin.”

[Bernie Brewer]

Probably will depend on how much DAMAGE- Trump AND THE REPUBLICAN’S do in the next 2 years. Coming from someone who used to be a Republican the farther right the party became the more Democrats I voted for. I just don’t ever see me going back.

Excellent points. When I first read your reply, I immediately thought of a song lyric. One of my favorite Jackson Browne songs is “Fountain of Sorrow” (I’m a big JB fan!). In it he says “I’m a year or two and a couple of changes behind you.” This kinda describes where I am in comparison to you. I just haven’t gotten there yet.

[Bernie Brewer]

It’s true:
“According to CIRCLEat the Tufts University Tisch College, approximately 31 percent of youth (ages 18-29) turned out to vote in the 2018 midterms, an extraordinary increase over the CIRCLE estimate in 2014 and the highest rate of turnout in at least 25 years. In 2014, IOP estimates that approximately 10.8 million young Americans voted (Democrats preferred, 54 percent-43 percent), compared to 14.7 million in 2018 (Democrats preferred, 67 percent-32 percent). The actual number of Republican votes cast by those under age 30 remained stable from 2014 to 2018, while nearly all of the nearly 4 million increase in turnout came from those supporting Democrats.

Voters under 30 (estimated share of 13 percent of electorate) were credited by NBC Newsanalysts as one of the key groups that led to a Democratic takeover of the House, along with African-Americans (estimated share of 11 percent), Hispanic/Latino Americans (share 11 percent), and those with no religious preference (17 percent). Exit polls have indicated that voters under 30 preferred Democrats by a +31-percentage point margin.”

This is probably clear from any of my posts, but I’m not a political scientist. I haven’t studied voter migration, but isn’t it true that many younger voters start out as idealists and therefore identify as liberal, but as they age they become more prone to vote pocketbook issues and tend to become more conservative?