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2018 Midterm Election Thread
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Originally posted by nots View PostI am sure there’s a lot of anti-Cruz $ in that 38M
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Originally posted by frae View PostI am not going to convince you so I won't try very hard, but he raised $38 million dollars in the third quarter. If you don't think his message is resonating with Democrats I don't know what to tell you.
Originally posted by nots View PostI am sure there’s a lot of anti-Cruz $ in that 38M
Originally posted by frae View PostOK maybe so, but Democrats in TX don't make national news this often. He drew 55K to a rally, I know rally numbers are hard to judge, but a Democrat in TX getting those kind of numbers to me tell me he as found a message that resonates. Also I have listened to him speak a few times and while he may not be Obama yet as a speaker he does strike me as having "it" and I think he will drive some turnout. That all said I don't expect a win because of polls, demographics and the huge advantage Republicans start with in that state. It would be a lot like the Rep's having an electric candidate in NY or CA with an unpopular Democrat in the WH and as an unpopular opponent. They might make the final race look close, but the odds of winning are still not good.
JLast edited by onejayhawk; 10-23-2018, 10:45 AM.Ad Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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It should be illegal for someone to send money to another state in order to support a candidate. Outside interference?? If you cant vote in that state, why should you be able to donate to a campaign there.It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws we have seen in recent years and we must stop it.
Bill Clinton 1995, State of the Union Address
"When they go low - we go High" great motto - too bad it was a sack of bullshit. DNC election mantra
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Originally posted by onejayhawk View PostSo much of the money is from out-of-state that they make jokes about it (eg Beto N'York).
The bottom line is not that Beto is popular with Texas Democrats, but that Ted Cruz is unpopular with Democrats nationally. That's understandable but it is also throwing money away.
Not often, maybe, but this is not the first time. Four years ago Wendy Davis running for Governor was a big national story. She's now a trivia answer.
J
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Originally posted by baldgriff View PostIt should be illegal for someone to send money to another state in order to support a candidate. Outside interference?? If you cant vote in that state, why should you be able to donate to a campaign there.
On the other hand Ted Cruz has 30% from small individual, 40% from large indivudal, 3.5% from PAC's and almost 27% from what https://www.opensecrets.org calls "other" which they define as contributions from other candidate committees.Last edited by frae; 10-23-2018, 11:37 AM.
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I dug into that site more and found some more stats.
Beto has raised almost 21 million from TX donors and over 13 million from out of state donors. So 61% to 38%
Ted's numbers on that page seem a bit strange for his geography and i think it might be because of his presidential run so I won't list them unless I can find something better to clairfy.
The problem on getting hard numbers on where the money is coming from is the sub $200 donors don't have to be reported to the FEC so is a challenge to get hard numbers, that said I found this from earlier this year mostly to make the point that Ted isn't Mr. Texas only when it comes to money...
"But here’s what we do know: From the Jan. 1, 2017 through June 30, 2018, roughly 47 percent of Cruz's reportable donations from individuals have come from outside of Texas, compared to O’Rourke’s 33 percent, according to contribution data. However, this does not account for the $4.3 million Cruz's campaign has raised, nor the $9.7 million Beto's campaign has raised, that does not include a disclosure of the donor. (This also doesn’t include money raised for the race by super PACs, which are barred by law from coordinating with the campaigns." (https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09...-out-of-texas/)
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Originally posted by frae View PostWhat about the early voting lines going on? No one would wait 5 minutes in line to meet Ted Cruz let alone vote for him. The lines are people motivated to vote for Beto there is no other factor driving that. Again a +16 R state is unlikley to be swinging, but this race is probably a 4-6 point race and that is because wheter you like it or not he is a good candidate.
Why wouldn't people stand in line to meet Cruz? In any event, they do. With Trump and Cruz in Houston last night, they had massive overflow issues.
JAd Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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Originally posted by onejayhawk View PostThere are a lot of stories about Beto supporters harrassing women which kind of weird. The latest polls are out of the 4-6 already (RCP average is 7.0) and moving wider.
Why wouldn't people stand in line to meet Cruz? In any event, they do.
J
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Originally posted by baldgriff View PostIt should be illegal for someone to send money to another state in order to support a candidate. Outside interference?? If you cant vote in that state, why should you be able to donate to a campaign there.
Certainly, what you're saying could be legislated, and likely in a way that could pass First Amendment muster. I just don't know that it would be a good law. Not only do I dislike restricting free expression, but the income redistribution is pretty awesome. Just think of all that money being spent by filthy rich people which thereby provides paying jobs for all sorts of poor, lower middle class, middle class, and upper middle class workers.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostBecause a vote by Ted Cruz influences your life and mine, even though we live in other states. A monetary contribution to a candidate is simply another method of free expression. I could go down and volunteer for Cruz's campaign, for example, though I don't live in Texas. That, in essence, is no more than a different kind of contribution with value (well, given my limited skills, not a whole lot of value...but still) and is also perfectly legal.
Certainly, what you're saying could be legislated, and likely in a way that could pass First Amendment muster. I just don't know that it would be a good law. Not only do I dislike restricting free expression, but the income redistribution is pretty awesome. Just think of all that money being spent by filthy rich people which thereby provides paying jobs for all sorts of poor, lower middle class, middle class, and upper middle class workers.It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws we have seen in recent years and we must stop it.
Bill Clinton 1995, State of the Union Address
"When they go low - we go High" great motto - too bad it was a sack of bullshit. DNC election mantra
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostA monetary contribution to a candidate is simply another method of free expression.If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
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Originally posted by DMT View Post$ = free speech means those without money are silenced. That's one of the fundamental problems with our country IMO.It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.
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