2018 Midterm Election Thread

[onejayhawk]

I thought the interesting thing in that article was the analysis of the tipping-point districts. They lean Republican, but it is only a lean. 82% are very competitive.

The cautionary note for Democrats is this, the non-competitive 18% are are all Republican. Democrats need to take more than 3/5 of the ones in play. Over half of them went for both Romeny and Trump. The Democrats are fighting on Republican turf.

J

[chancellor]

Well, when even Vanity Fair concludes Beto is "getting his ass kicked", I'd say I'm pretty confident Cruz has another Senate term coming.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/10/beto-orourke-fundraising-record-ted-cruz?fbclid=IwAR3DtKVUdCEBKng8z5lCq5eyeSNCyljxhD89MsKyaU4EQib17TszUMJsHfo

[frae]

538 model keeps inching up, 81.3% as of this morning. I just think the amount of ways the Democrats can win and the continued good generic polls will keep driving this number to be in this low 80's area. So some numbers for fun, I'll do solids plus leans and likelys excluding toss ups.

538 214 - 204 17
RCP 205 - 201 29
Cook 192-192 48
270 208 - 198 - 29

218 is the magic number there and again with the generic ballot data and the makup of these districts I am feeling good about where the Dems are.

The senate squeaked up a little, but I am more than ever committed to the idea that AZ, NV, Mizzou, ND, and FLA will tell us how these numbers wind up. I think the lack of polling in ND keeps it in play, but I just listed 2 true tossups 2 sligh lean D's and a lean R. I'll also note Cook Political puts IN, TX, TN, and MT in the toss up category. I personally think TX is definitely gone and only hold onto hope in TN because Bredesen has won state wide office before, but that said I won't be counting it as a possible pickup at this point unless we get more good solid polling. Interestingly RCP and 270 to win also have IN as a toss up. There isn't a ton of polling in Indiana so I am not sure what 538 is using vs the others as they have it likely D in the classic version of their model. Can't wait to just get to election night and see some real numbers.

[frae]

Up to 82.4 after the polls that were factored in tonight, only a few more days of good house polling to have this reach its high since they started publishing it on August 1st. So back to my contention that anger would be rocket fuel for the Democrats in these winnable districts. It won't change the Senate as that map just plays different, but boy is it good to see this number back up.

[frae]

Good polling and now good money numbers for the Democrats move the House race all the way up to 85.1%, which is a high since the model started running in August. We aren't totally out of the woods on where maybe this data is a little bouncy, but I feel pretty safe saying the Kavanaugh effect has energized a lot of people on the left. The median pickup today is +40.

That said the deep red states that were being discussed as senate pickups have also become a bit energized and with the R leans in those states TX and TN aren't likely coming back. Heitkamp only hangs onto a shot because she is an incumbent. To me the biggest surprise is that NV a state I would call purple is lately been trending to Heller. It is entirely possible the only seat the Dems flip is AZ and the only seat the Reps flip is ND. The 538 model projects it going 52-48 just beause the Democrats still need to hold states like FL and IN.

I won't be right until election day, but I know a few people were saying the house would tighten up after Kavanaugh and that it was back in play. As of today the house going to the Democrats is more likely than the Senate going to the Republicans.

[chancellor]

And now Sherrod Brown will get to learn about the difficulty of refuting roughly 30 year old, uncorroborated accounts of sexual assault. For the record, I believe this one about as much as I did those against Kavanaugh.

But as I've noted before, liberals sure won't like it when we keep playing by your rules.

[onejayhawk]

One thing that Nate Silver is saying is that the popular vote is nearly certain to go to the Democrats. However, because of the way the vote is stacked, Republicans can lose the popular vote nationwide and still maintain control. In particular, Democrats need about a 5.7% popular total win to gain control of the House. The generic ballot is close to 8%, so 5.7% is likely but it is still a race.

For what it may be worth, I just heard that Rush Limbaugh is predicting that the Republicans keep both Houses of Congress. His track record is pretty good. He predicted the Newt Wave six months ahead.

J

[nots]

And now Sherrod Brown will get to learn about the difficulty of refuting roughly 30 year old, uncorroborated accounts of sexual assault. For the record, I believe this one about as much as I did those against Kavanaugh.

But as I've noted before, liberals sure won't like it when we keep playing by your rules.

I am confident that the Democratic members of the Senate Judiciary committee will demand a full FBI investigation.

[Fresno Bob]

I am confident that the Democratic members of the Senate Judiciary committee will demand a full FBI investigation.

or exactly what Kavanaugh got

[chancellor]

I am confident that the Democratic members of the Senate Judiciary committee will demand a full FBI investigation.

While I appreciate your sarcasm, I'm actually hoping they don't. If they do, it'll pretty much convince me that we're no longer in a Kafka novel, but now in full-blown Salem witch trials.

[Sour Masher]

And now Sherrod Brown will get to learn about the difficulty of refuting roughly 30 year old, uncorroborated accounts of sexual assault. For the record, I believe this one about as much as I did those against Kavanaugh.

But as I've noted before, liberals sure won't like it when we keep playing by your rules.

Where are you finding any specifics about the allegations that suggest sexual assault? All I can find is a vague account of an unidentified woman of an unwanted sexual advance, not assault. The allegation is he made a move and then immediately stopped when she said no. All from his political opponent. Do you really equate this to the Kavanaugh accusers? Until more info is available about the accuser and the specific allegation, this is nothing. Even if the woman exists, the language used of sexual advance not assault suggest no allegation of a crime. And the accusation makes clear she does not plan to come forward with her allegation of the non-crime she described. There seems to be no there, there.

[DMT]

Where are you finding any specifics about the allegations? All I can find is a vague account of an unidentified woman of unwanted sexual advances, not assault. All from his political opponent. Do you really equate this to the Kavanaugh accusers? Until more info is available about the accuser and the specific allegation, this is nothing. Even if the woman exists, the language used of sexual advances not assault suggest no allegation of a crime.

You think facts are going to block their whataboutism?

[Sour Masher]

You think facts are going to block their whataboutism?

No, I'm sure Repubs will see any and all defenses of a Dem as hypocrisy rather than carefully considering such matters on a case by case basis. That is what I am calling for. I can't speak for the Party or anyone else. All I know is that this isn't about team to me. If such a flimsy unnamed accusation of a pass made and stopped once rejected came out against a Repub, I'd say the exact same thing as I'm saying now. This isn't the same as the Kavanaugh case, and we should move on unless more comes out.

[nots]

While I appreciate your sarcasm, I'm actually hoping they don't. If they do, it'll pretty much convince me that we're no longer in a Kafka novel, but now in full-blown Salem witch trials.

I agree—I was just poking fun at the Kavanaugh Senate committee theatrics.

[frae]

One thing that Nate Silver is saying is that the popular vote is nearly certain to go to the Democrats. However, because of the way the vote is stacked, Republicans can lose the popular vote nationwide and still maintain control. In particular, Democrats need about a 5.7% popular total win to gain control of the House. The generic ballot is close to 8%, so 5.7% is likely but it is still a race.

For what it may be worth, I just heard that Rush Limbaugh is predicting that the Republicans keep both Houses of Congress. His track record is pretty good. He predicted the Newt Wave six months ahead.

J

Oh I am sure Rush has done hours of research on individual house races and has poured over the fundraising numbers in the identified toss up districts to come to his shocking conclusion that Republicans will win the house.

84.5 - 15.5 in the house as of this hour with a median pickup of +39. I'll say like Nate has said we can't be sure what these crazy money differences mean with certainty, but more indidvidual donors and signifigant money advantages in the races that matter probably means something. I know Nate's model is factoring that so I'll continue to play it safe and say +32, but again if this is a race where Republicans have a "real" chance than Democrats have a slightly better chance (78.8 - 21.2) to win the Seanate and we have all gone over the needle they have to thread to do that - ND, MO, IN, FL, AZ, NV or have something truly crazy happy in TX or TN. So I guess if you are set on the house being a race I'll have to wait until election night to see.