2018 Midterm Election Thread

[chancellor]

Cramer seems to be pulling away from Heitkamp in North Dakota, which makes a two seat pickup for the Democrats (which they need to take the majority) highly unlikely. They'd need to hope McCaskill, Nelson and Donnelly all can squeak out victories. (I think Manchin, Tester and Menendez will win). And then they need Sinema and two more from Rosen, Bredesen or O'Rourke to come through. That's a tough needle to thread.

Yup, looks like you have it pretty well nailed. I thought Bredesen, in particular, would do much better given his record as governor and as more of a blue dog Dem, but his campaign has made some serious gaffes and he's consistently lost ground through the campaign. But I think he has the best chance of the three you've listed in your last group due to his name recognition at poll time.

[frae]

Cramer seems to be pulling away from Heitkamp in North Dakota, which makes a two seat pickup for the Democrats (which they need to take the majority) highly unlikely. They'd need to hope McCaskill, Nelson and Donnelly all can squeak out victories. (I think Manchin, Tester and Menendez will win). And then they need Sinema and two more from Rosen, Bredesen or O'Rourke to come through. That's a tough needle to thread.

I think you have it right and I think it falls apart with Beto and Bresden. My best guess as of today is we have the same numbers as we do today. if we are using todays polling trends I think Donnely and Nelson hold. I think Sinema is a pickup. I think they lose Heitkamp. I think they either hold McKaskil or get Rosen. Beto has been a fun campaign to follow but I don't see a path to victory. Bredesen hasn't had great polls lately and TN is a tough nut to crack. So if you made me bet today I'd say we go 51 - 49 again.

[onejayhawk]

I think you have it right and I think it falls apart with Beto and Bresden. My best guess as of today is we have the same numbers as we do today. if we are using todays polling trends I think Donnely and Nelson hold. I think Sinema is a pickup. I think they lose Heitkamp. I think they either hold McKaskil or get Rosen. Beto has been a fun campaign to follow but I don't see a path to victory. Bredesen hasn't had great polls lately and TN is a tough nut to crack. So if you made me bet today I'd say we go 51 - 49 again.

You can write Beto off. Cruz has been getting to him and he has not even been in Texas to campaign.

Against your typical Republican, O'Roark might have a good shot. Cruz is the best campaigner the Republicans have. Beto is already behind and it will get worse. At most he gets Cruz to raise a sweat.

J

[B-Fly]

Cruz is the best campaigner the Republicans have.

Except for the fact that so many people, including his Republican colleagues, openly and studiously despise him, and when the GOP race narrowed to Cruz versus a crude, no-experience, nativist, reality television buffoon, Cruz still got smoked. This being Texas, I assume a "typical Republican" would have a comfortable lead on an unapologetic liberal Democrat like O'Rourke, and this being Texas, I still assume Cruz will eke this one out, but I can't help but laugh at the suggestion that Cruz is an exceptional campaigner and GOP wunderkind with a big future. If anything, he should be embarrassed that this election is in doubt.

[chancellor]

Except for the fact that so many people, including his Republican colleagues, openly and studiously despise him, and when the GOP race narrowed to Cruz versus a crude, no-experience, nativist, reality television buffoon, Cruz still got smoked. This being Texas, I assume a "typical Republican" would have a comfortable lead on an unapologetic liberal Democrat like O'Rourke, and this being Texas, I still assume Cruz will eke this one out, but I can't help but laugh at the suggestion that Cruz is an exceptional campaigner and GOP wunderkind with a big future. If anything, he should be embarrassed that this election is in doubt.

Hmmm, in fairness to OneJ, there's a big difference between a state campaign and a presidential - or national - campaign. Scott Walker, for example, has been an exceptional state governor campaigner but failed dismally on the presidential stage. John Kasich, the same. Phil Bredesen was essentially a slam-dunk Democratic governor in a very red state, but is highly unlikely now to even make it to the US Senate. I could list a lot more of chapter and verse of candidates who were exceptional state level candidates who could not translate that success to a larger stage.

I'll concur that Cruz has little to no presidential future, but that's mutually exclusive from his state campaign structure, which is undeniably very good.

[umjewman]

Hmmm, in fairness to OneJ, there's a big difference between a state campaign and a presidential - or national - campaign. Scott Walker, for example, has been an exceptional state governor campaigner but failed dismally on the presidential stage. John Kasich, the same. Phil Bredesen was essentially a slam-dunk Democratic governor in a very red state, but is highly unlikely now to even make it to the US Senate. I could list a lot more of chapter and verse of candidates who were exceptional state level candidates who could not translate that success to a larger stage.

I'll concur that Cruz has little to no presidential future, but that's mutually exclusive from his state campaign structure, which is undeniably very good.

Plus, based on his posting history, I have to assume that OneJ actually IS Ted Cruz, so you have to expect him to defend himself and tout his campaigning prowess.

[Gregg]

Plus, based on his posting history, I have to assume that OneJ actually IS Ted Cruz, so you have to expect him to defend himself and tout his campaigning prowess.

Ok, this made me laugh. Nicely played.

[B-Fly]

Plus, based on his posting history, I have to assume that OneJ actually IS Ted Cruz, so you have to expect him to defend himself and tout his campaigning prowess.

LOL, that would certainly explain it.

[Teenwolf]

I'll concur that Cruz has little to no presidential future, but that's mutually exclusive from his state campaign structure, which is undeniably very good.

You really believe he's been doing a good job this campaign? He's been entirely engaged in identity politics messaging, and I think this weakness is as big of a factor in the closeness of the race as Beto's strengths are.

The Beto jingle? Attacking the name 'Beto', when Cruz himself is actually Rafael? Constantly threatening that "Beto is gonna outlaw Barbeque!"? Putting out pictures of Beto in a band photo, and mocking that Beto was actually cool at one time in his life? These have all been spectacular mis-fires.

[onejayhawk]

Plus, based on his posting history, I have to assume that OneJ actually IS Ted Cruz, so you have to expect him to defend himself and tout his campaigning prowess.

I wish. Ted's richer, better looking, has a great family and an exceptional career path. I'd like to be able to retire to teaching law and (co-)writing best seller books.

I'll concur that Cruz has little to no presidential future, but that's mutually exclusive from his state campaign structure, which is undeniably very good.

I disagree. Ted Cruz will be the next President, be it 2020 or 2024. While he is disliked, he is respected and no one works harder. When the nominee Trump called Cruz a tough competitor, he was giving his highest praise.

J

[frae]

I disagree. Ted Cruz will be the next President, be it 2020 or 2024. While he is disliked, he is respected and no one works harder. When the nominee Trump called Cruz a tough competitor, he was giving his highest praise.

J

I'll be happy to take a bet that Mr. Cruz is never the Republican nominee let alone the President.

[DMT]

I'll be happy to take a bet that Mr. Cruz is never the Republican nominee let alone the President.

Wouldn't betting on yourself break campaign finance laws?

[Fresno Bob]

Plus, based on his posting history, I have to assume that OneJ actually IS Ted Cruz, so you have to expect him to defend himself and tout his campaigning prowess.

this is the narrative I'm going with from now on

[Fresno Bob]

I'll be happy to take a bet that Mr. Cruz is never the Republican nominee let alone the President.

I concur

[B-Fly]

I wish. Ted's richer, better looking, has a great family and an exceptional career path. I'd like to be able to retire to teaching law and (co-)writing best seller books.


I disagree. Ted Cruz will be the next President, be it 2020 or 2024. While he is disliked, he is respected and no one works harder. When the nominee Trump called Cruz a tough competitor, he was giving his highest praise.

J

Whatever you say, Rafael.