2018 Midterm Election Thread

[nots]

I am not going to convince you so I won't try very hard, but he raised $38 million dollars in the third quarter. If you don't think his message is resonating with Democrats I don't know what to tell you.

I am sure there’s a lot of anti-Cruz $ in that 38M

[frae]

I am sure there’s a lot of anti-Cruz $ in that 38M

OK maybe so, but Democrats in TX don't make national news this often. He drew 55K to a rally, I know rally numbers are hard to judge, but a Democrat in TX getting those kind of numbers to me tell me he as found a message that resonates. Also I have listened to him speak a few times and while he may not be Obama yet as a speaker he does strike me as having "it" and I think he will drive some turnout. That all said I don't expect a win because of polls, demographics and the huge advantage Republicans start with in that state. It would be a lot like the Rep's having an electric candidate in NY or CA with an unpopular Democrat in the WH and as an unpopular opponent. They might make the final race look close, but the odds of winning are still not good.

[nullnor]

Beto realizes he's going to lose and is switching to a possible future national campaign. also i heard when Cruz sends out donation requests they come in envelopes marked as court summons or something similar so people open them. what's up with that?

[onejayhawk]

I am not going to convince you so I won't try very hard, but he raised $38 million dollars in the third quarter. If you don't think his message is resonating with Democrats I don't know what to tell you.

So much of the money is from out-of-state that they make jokes about it (eg Beto N'York).

I am sure there’s a lot of anti-Cruz $ in that 38M

The bottom line is not that Beto is popular with Texas Democrats, but that Ted Cruz is unpopular with Democrats nationally. That's understandable but it is also throwing money away.

OK maybe so, but Democrats in TX don't make national news this often. He drew 55K to a rally, I know rally numbers are hard to judge, but a Democrat in TX getting those kind of numbers to me tell me he as found a message that resonates. Also I have listened to him speak a few times and while he may not be Obama yet as a speaker he does strike me as having "it" and I think he will drive some turnout. That all said I don't expect a win because of polls, demographics and the huge advantage Republicans start with in that state. It would be a lot like the Rep's having an electric candidate in NY or CA with an unpopular Democrat in the WH and as an unpopular opponent. They might make the final race look close, but the odds of winning are still not good.

Not often, maybe, but this is not the first time. Four years ago Wendy Davis running for Governor was a big national story. She's now a trivia answer.

J

[baldgriff]

It should be illegal for someone to send money to another state in order to support a candidate. Outside interference?? If you cant vote in that state, why should you be able to donate to a campaign there.

[frae]

So much of the money is from out-of-state that they make jokes about it (eg Beto N'York).


The bottom line is not that Beto is popular with Texas Democrats, but that Ted Cruz is unpopular with Democrats nationally. That's understandable but it is also throwing money away.


Not often, maybe, but this is not the first time. Four years ago Wendy Davis running for Governor was a big national story. She's now a trivia answer.

J

What about the early voting lines going on? No one would wait 5 minutes in line to meet Ted Cruz let alone vote for him. The lines are people motivated to vote for Beto there is no other factor driving that. Again a +16 R state is unlikley to be swinging, but this race is probably a 4-6 point race and that is because wheter you like it or not he is a good candidate.

[frae]

It should be illegal for someone to send money to another state in order to support a candidate. Outside interference?? If you cant vote in that state, why should you be able to donate to a campaign there.

Citizens united opened the door for groups to spend as much as they want anywhere they want so I think small individual donors who are ID'ing themselves and following the campaign laws is more than fine. Beto has raised over 44% of his money from small individual donors and 55% from large individual donors. He has .12% or less than 75K from PAC's.

On the other hand Ted Cruz has 30% from small individual, 40% from large indivudal, 3.5% from PAC's and almost 27% from what https://www.opensecrets.org calls "other" which they define as contributions from other candidate committees.

[frae]

I dug into that site more and found some more stats.

Beto has raised almost 21 million from TX donors and over 13 million from out of state donors. So 61% to 38%

Ted's numbers on that page seem a bit strange for his geography and i think it might be because of his presidential run so I won't list them unless I can find something better to clairfy.

The problem on getting hard numbers on where the money is coming from is the sub $200 donors don't have to be reported to the FEC so is a challenge to get hard numbers, that said I found this from earlier this year mostly to make the point that Ted isn't Mr. Texas only when it comes to money...

"But here’s what we do know: From the Jan. 1, 2017 through June 30, 2018, roughly 47 percent of Cruz's reportable donations from individuals have come from outside of Texas, compared to O’Rourke’s 33 percent, according to contribution data. However, this does not account for the $4.3 million Cruz's campaign has raised, nor the $9.7 million Beto's campaign has raised, that does not include a disclosure of the donor. (This also doesn’t include money raised for the race by super PACs, which are barred by law from coordinating with the campaigns." (https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09...-out-of-texas/)

[onejayhawk]

What about the early voting lines going on? No one would wait 5 minutes in line to meet Ted Cruz let alone vote for him. The lines are people motivated to vote for Beto there is no other factor driving that. Again a +16 R state is unlikley to be swinging, but this race is probably a 4-6 point race and that is because wheter you like it or not he is a good candidate.

There are a lot of stories about Beto supporters harrassing women which kind of weird. The latest polls are out of the 4-6 already (RCP average is 7.0) and moving wider.

Why wouldn't people stand in line to meet Cruz? In any event, they do. With Trump and Cruz in Houston last night, they had massive overflow issues.

J

[frae]

There are a lot of stories about Beto supporters harrassing women which kind of weird. The latest polls are out of the 4-6 already (RCP average is 7.0) and moving wider.

Why wouldn't people stand in line to meet Cruz? In any event, they do.

J

Ok sure

[chancellor]

It should be illegal for someone to send money to another state in order to support a candidate. Outside interference?? If you cant vote in that state, why should you be able to donate to a campaign there.

Because a vote by Ted Cruz influences your life and mine, even though we live in other states. A monetary contribution to a candidate is simply another method of free expression. I could go down and volunteer for Cruz's campaign, for example, though I don't live in Texas. That, in essence, is no more than a different kind of contribution with value (well, given my limited skills, not a whole lot of value...but still) and is also perfectly legal.

Certainly, what you're saying could be legislated, and likely in a way that could pass First Amendment muster. I just don't know that it would be a good law. Not only do I dislike restricting free expression, but the income redistribution is pretty awesome. Just think of all that money being spent by filthy rich people which thereby provides paying jobs for all sorts of poor, lower middle class, middle class, and upper middle class workers.

[baldgriff]

Because a vote by Ted Cruz influences your life and mine, even though we live in other states. A monetary contribution to a candidate is simply another method of free expression. I could go down and volunteer for Cruz's campaign, for example, though I don't live in Texas. That, in essence, is no more than a different kind of contribution with value (well, given my limited skills, not a whole lot of value...but still) and is also perfectly legal.

Certainly, what you're saying could be legislated, and likely in a way that could pass First Amendment muster. I just don't know that it would be a good law. Not only do I dislike restricting free expression, but the income redistribution is pretty awesome. Just think of all that money being spent by filthy rich people which thereby provides paying jobs for all sorts of poor, lower middle class, middle class, and upper middle class workers.

Hmmmm - maybe my comment was just a knee jerk reaction to the discussion about campaign finance and where money is coming from. I may have to noodle on this one a bit more. You make an interesting point that the vote of a Congressman from any state may actually impact my life. Hmmmm.... more noodling .........

[DMT]

A monetary contribution to a candidate is simply another method of free expression.

$ = free speech means those without money are silenced. That's one of the fundamental problems with our country IMO.

[TranaGreg]

$ = free speech means those without money are silenced. That's one of the fundamental problems with our country IMO.

from the outside looking in, it's also one of the most bizarre things about your country

[B-Fly]

from the outside looking in, it's also one of the most bizarre things about your country

How are your political campaigns funded up there?