President Donald Trump

[Ken]

"If you truly think the true odds are 1:1MM, you should be rushing to the bank to pull out all your disposable money and put it on the line."

well, unless you are proposing he take a flight across the pond, you are recommending that someone engage in illegal activity here in the U.S.

Sure, fly across the pond.

You are whiffing on the point if you really think that's the crux of the issue. The reality is that he knows 1MM:1 is garbage when there are actually discussions of the odds in the 5-15% range by people who actually spend a lot of time on that kind of topic. If you want to argue it's 200:1 or 500:1 then sure, I'll listen. If you are arguing that it's 1MM:1 and laughing at the notion that someone would disagree, then you are playing us. Mith is smarter than that.

But sure, focus on the pedantic side of the discussion, that's really useful. What's next are you going to remind DMT that DMT is a schedule 1 controlled substance every time he posts?

[Ken]

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-impeachment-resignation-probabilty-chances-2019

[Mithrandir]

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...y-chances-2019

Let's see. House is a Dem majority. Odds of impeachment were pretty darn good. Easy to see that.

If I am correct, to remove Trump the Senate needs a 2/3 vote. Correct? Senate has 47 Dem and 2 Independents
So at minimum 17 GOP Senators have to vote to remove Trump. You think that there is a 10% chance for that to happen?

[Ken]

Let's see. House is a Dem majority. Odds of impeachment were pretty darn good. Easy to see that.

If I am correct, to remove Trump the Senate needs a 2/3 vote. Correct? Senate has 47 Dem and 2 Independents
So at minimum 17 GOP Senators have to vote to remove Trump. You think that there is a 10% chance for that to happen?

Please try to keep up I said 1-10%.

Do I think there's at least a 1% chance that the senate will do what they are charged to do and remove a president who tried to bribe a foreign government to dig up dirt on his political opponent? I sure as hell hope there's at least that much chance. It's sad that it is that low.

Also, there's a non-zero (read >1%) chance that between now and the senate hearings, dumpy does something else deserving of impeachment. This one isn't his first example of stupidity leading to illegal acts, and it won't be his last.

[Mithrandir]

Please try to keep up I said 1-10%.

Do I think there's at least a 1% chance that the senate will do what they are charged to do and remove a president who tried to bribe a foreign government to dig up dirt on his political opponent? I sure as hell hope there's at least that much chance. It's sad that it is that low.

Also, there's a non-zero (read >1%) chance that between now and the senate hearings, dumpy does something else deserving of impeachment. This one isn't his first example of stupidity, and it won't be his last.

Not to be snarky, but have you been paying attention to the partisanship in government ths last 2 years? The GOP doesn't seem believe the charges that you are leveling against Trump are even true. I want Trump gone and if he is removed I will gladly eat crow. But if he isnt, be prepared to hear me say "told ya so" all god damn day!

[Ken]

Not to be snarky, but have you been paying attention to the partisanship in government ths last 2 years? The GOP doesn't seem believe the charges that you are leveling against Trump are even true. I want Trump gone and if he is removed I will gladly eat crow. But if he isnt, be prepared to hear me say "told ya so" all god damn day!

So is it your position that you are a better judge of the situation than everyone who analyzes political odds, or do you have inside information? Or what exactly? What's your argument if you disagree with the consensus?

I've presented multiple sources showing that my suggestions were well within the generally accepted range of reasonable judgement. It's fine if you disagree with the overwhelming consensus (not this board, but literally a whole set of people who put their money on this stuff, or write articles or analyse political statistics, etc), but if that's your assertion, why? What do you know that none of them know? Why are you a better judge than any of them?

None of them think it's likely, or anywhere close. We're talking about very low odds when I say 1%-10%. But they would all laugh at 1 in a million. Why are you a better judge of the situation than all those people who spend a significant amount of time analyzing this stuff and not running a library?

[Sour Masher]

Not to be snarky, but have you been paying attention to the partisanship in government ths last 2 years? The GOP doesn't seem believe the charges that you are leveling against Trump are even true. I want Trump gone and if he is removed I will gladly eat crow. But if he isnt, be prepared to hear me say "told ya so" all god damn day!

But in this case, everyone agrees that is is highly unlikely he gets removed, so you can't really gloat about being right. Ken is saying at minimum there is a 90% chance good old Dumpy stays in office. I'd say it is closer to 99%, but that is still just 1 in 100.

I think the disconnect is that you are focusing on your lack of faith that repubs will do the right thing whereas those who are saying the 1 in 10 odds are not just basing it on faith in repubs based on current evidence, but the real possibility something else comes up that it would be political suicide to ignore. You really think there is only 1 in a million chance there is evidence out there somewhere that Trump did something or will do something so appalling that it would turn public sentiment enough to force the Senate to impeach? If so, I get it based on history, but I still have faith that if a video comes out of him having sex with a 16 year old girl or him calling his own supporters mindless sheep that he has duped into believing he didn't quid pro quo or some other impeachable crime, because they are such easily manipulated idiots, at least 20 GOP senators won't play the "it's a deep fake vid" card and vote to impeach. For me, the odds of a crime of that level is much higher than 1 in a million or 1 in a thousand for our current POTUS.

[Ken]

But in this case, everyone agrees that is is highly unlikely he gets removed, so you can't really gloat about being right. Ken is saying at minimum there is a 90% chance good old Dumpy stays in office. I'd say it is closer to 99%, but that is still just 1 in 100.

I think the disconnect is that you are focusing on your lack of faith that repubs will do the right thing whereas those who are saying the 1 in 10 odds are not just basing it on faith in repubs based on current evidence, but the real possibility something else comes up that it would be political suicide to ignore. You really think there is only 1 in a million chance there is evidence out there somewhere that Trump did something or will do something so appalling that it would turn public sentiment enough to force the Senate to impeach? If so, I get it based on history, but I still have faith that if a video comes out of him having sex with a 16 year old girl or him calling his own supporters mindless sheep that he has duped into believing he didn't quid pro quo or some other impeachable crime, because they are such easily manipulated idiots, at least 20 GOP senators won't play the "it's a deep fake vid" card and vote to impeach. For me, the odds of a crime of that level is much higher than 1 in a million or 1 in a thousand for our current POTUS.

Exactly. And it's almost like I spelled that out for him already!

there's a non-zero (read >1%) chance that between now and the senate hearings, dumpy does something else deserving of impeachment. This one isn't his first example of stupidity leading to illegal acts, and it won't be his last.

Oh wait... I did

[nots]

FWIW, I would say that every single President past, present and future would have greater than 1 in 1M odds at doing something illegal and getting impeached and removed from office. Human nature being human nature and all.

[TranaGreg]

FWIW, I would say that every single President past, present and future would have greater than 1 in 1M odds at doing something illegal and getting impeached and removed from office. Human nature being human nature and all.

well, except for the dead ones.

[Teenwolf]

What nobody has been willing to do is look at impeachment from the simple perspective of what the end result will be for Trump. We all agree the odds are somewhere between one in a million and 10% that Trump is impeached. That's a start.

The follow up questions are more important. In the 90-99% chance that Trump is not impeached (ie. vindicated), how likely is it that Trump will be able to weaponize impeachment against him to his advantage? I mean, most voters don't pay close attention, and partisanship is at max insanity levels, so I think it gives Trump ammunition to win, depending on who he faces. Disagree? Fine. But I think quibbling over .00001% and 10% is silly. Analyze the 90% probability!

[ironfist]

What nobody has been willing to do is look at impeachment from the simple perspective of what the end result will be for Trump. We all agree the odds are somewhere between one in a million and 10% that Trump is impeached. That's a start.

The follow up questions are more important. In the 90-99% chance that Trump is not impeached (ie. vindicated), how likely is it that Trump will be able to weaponize impeachment against him to his advantage? I mean, most voters don't pay close attention, and partisanship is at max insanity levels, so I think it gives Trump ammunition to win, depending on who he faces. Disagree? Fine. But I think quibbling over .00001% and 10% is silly. Analyze the 90% probability!

I think it'd be more effective if the impeachment cloud still hung over his head for the election. With the threat of being impeached it would energize his base to get out there and make sure they vote to keep him and all the senators in office. If the impeachment is over and done with by the time election rolls around, the base may feel like they're in the clear and it's not as urgent. Now there's always the revenge motive, but it doesn't feel like the right can hate the left any more than they do now - unless the impeachment is somehow successful.

[Ken]

What nobody has been willing to do is look at impeachment from the simple perspective of what the end result will be for Trump. We all agree the odds are somewhere between one in a million and 10% that Trump is impeached. That's a start.

The follow up questions are more important. In the 90-99% chance that Trump is not impeached (ie. vindicated), how likely is it that Trump will be able to weaponize impeachment against him to his advantage? I mean, most voters don't pay close attention, and partisanship is at max insanity levels, so I think it gives Trump ammunition to win, depending on who he faces. Disagree? Fine. But I think quibbling over .00001% and 10% is silly. Analyze the 90% probability!

I'm sure for his base, he can weaponize the impeachment. But they were already going to vote for him.

How does the fact that he was clumsy enough to put himself in this situation influence the voter who wasn't already all in on Trump?

I can't imagine someone who had not already bought in on the insanity thinking, okay, since he didn't get kicked out of office I'm going to join the crazies and vote for the buffoon. How does it play out in a way that helps him?

[nots]

I'm sure for his base, he can weaponize the impeachment. But they were already going to vote for him.

How does the fact that he was clumsy enough to put himself in this situation influence the voter who wasn't already all in on Trump?

I can't imagine someone who had not already bought in on the insanity thinking, okay, since he didn't get kicked out of office I'm going to join the crazies and vote for the buffoon. How does it play out in a way that helps him?

I think a lot of the folks that dont pay close attention to politics are going to hear 'I was vindicated in my trial' repeated every day ad nauseam and it will influence them--especially if the economy continue to do well (did you see the employment and more importantly, the wages numbers today?). I think by Nov 2020, the economy will have a much greater influence than a partisan impeachment and a partisan aquittal.

[Ken]

I think a lot of the folks that dont pay close attention to politics are going to hear 'I was vindicated in my trial' repeated every day and nauseam and it will influence them--especially if the economy continue to do well (did you see the employment and more importantly, the wages numbers today?). I think by Nov 2020, the economy will have a much greater influence than a partisan impeachment and a partisan aquittal.

I'm with you on the economy, I can see people voting for their bank accounts.

I don't see the "I'm vindicated" side. Anyone who would fall for that garbage is already fully on board.