RJ Pay for Play - Draft Discussion Thread 2011

[schlesinj]

According to the Draft Dominator, keep in mind 2 teams do not have kickers, so I added 110 points to Jason and Phreak to adjust the starter total points:
Starters Projections
Hammer 1786 Points
Frae 1685
Jwlincyy 1681
Seadogstat 1667
Schlesinj 1632
Revo 1631
Traut 1626
Eldiablo/Grey 1595
Stepen 1593
Phreak 1524
Griz 1491
Piney 1464

[Hammer]

Dave Grey
QB- Manning/Freeman- While I dont think this is a bad combo, I can see many headaches on who to start week to week
RB- Forte/Best/Addai- Solid but not spectacular.
WR/TE- Wallace/Williams/Jackson/miller- Great WRs and a decent TE.
bench- Spiller and Crabtree have nice upside.

overall- fringe playoff team

[Hammer]

G-Men
QB- Looks like Peyton is ready. Here come the numbers.
RB- Hillis, Benson, Bradshaw 2 very good starters and Benson is a solid flex option.
WR/TE- Fitz/Wayne/Gate- yummy
bench- Law Firm is solid and Helu and Breaston could surprise. Decent bench but nothing to get excited over.

This team is one of the top 4.

[Trautdiggity]

Hammers
QB - Vick - If he's on the field, he's a beast
RB - Rice, DMC, Felix JOnes, outstanding
WR - Britt, Marshall, ok, lacking a true WR1 but Marshall is arguably so in PPR.
TE - Clark is one of the best
D/K - No complaints here
Bench: Thomas and Meachem are good depth, Hightower is ok but not needed anyway

Only complaint I have about this team is the lack of a top WR but it's offset by the strength everywhere else. Anything short of the playoffs means major injuries or disappointment.

[phantaciephreak]

Do you guys think it's a stretch to expect 1,200 yards and 10 TDs from Shonn Greene this year? I definitely gambled on the trade I made yesterday, and the only thing that is somewhat unclear for me is the ceiling for Greene.

[Hammer]

Do you guys think it's a stretch to expect 1,200 yards and 10 TDs from Shonn Greene this year? I definitely gambled on the trade I made yesterday, and the only thing that is somewhat unclear for me is the ceiling for Greene.

I am higher on Greene than most. I think the TDs are there for him. I am not sure about the yards.

[schlesinj]

Do you guys think it's a stretch to expect 1,200 yards and 10 TDs from Shonn Greene this year? I definitely gambled on the trade I made yesterday, and the only thing that is somewhat unclear for me is the ceiling for Greene.

I personally am not a fan of Greene in a PPR league. He has stone hands. Certainly the Jets will run the ball, but I do not see him much better than Cedric Benson a top 25ish back.

[revo]

I personally am not a fan of Greene in a PPR league. He has stone hands. Certainly the Jets will run the ball, but I do not see him much better than Cedric Benson a top 25ish back.

Agreed. The guy has literally 25 catches throughout his NFL and college career combined -- that's six seasons!

While it's clear Greene has taken over the RB1 job from LT, let's not forget LT is still there and had almost 1,300 combined yards last season (amazingly enough). Also, McKnight is a year wiser and they added Bilal Powell, who many feel may be the real RB future for the Jets. Greene's just not a real game-breaker -- his career long is just 33 yards.

Plus, the Jets really want Sanchez to become more of a passer, and the additions of Burress and Mason should help that.

If his carries increase to 240 (up from 185 last season), he should just get to the 1,000 yard mark. Considering he has just 4 TDs in his entire career, I don't think 10 is feasible, but hey, you never know.

[phantaciephreak]

It's hard to judge him on past performance because he hasn't been in the league that long. Granted, he's not going to provide any production in the passing game, but I would think he's going get more than 15 carries a game this season. I was thinking he will get closer to 300 (19/game). With a 3.9 yards/carry average, that puts him right a 1,200 yards. That seems like a realistic expectation.

I also think he's a lot better bet than Cedric Benson this year. The Jets have a WAAYYYY better offense and o-line than the Bengals. I've also been hearing reports that Bernard Scott will get more carries this year.

[Hammer]

Keep in mind while the Jets added Plax and Mason they lost Edwards and Cotchery. Not much of a difference IMO.

[Trautdiggity]

It's hard to judge him on past performance because he hasn't been in the league that long. Granted, he's not going to provide any production in the passing game, but I would think he's going get more than 15 carries a game this season. I was thinking he will get closer to 300 (19/game). With a 3.9 yards/carry average, that puts him right a 1,200 yards. That seems like a realistic expectation.

I also think he's a lot better bet than Cedric Benson this year. The Jets have a WAAYYYY better offense and o-line than the Bengals. I've also been hearing reports that Bernard Scott will get more carries this year.

19 carries per game is very ambitious especially for a guy who will be pulled on every third-down play. Last season for example, only eight running backs recorded 19 carries per game (MJD, Turner, SJax, Foster, Mendy, Benson, CJ2K and Rice). Take Rice out of that group and what do the rest have in common? The answer is no competition/committee/etc. Even Rice to a certain extent meets that since he really was only pulled on the goal line. Only eight more backs carried between 15 and 19 times (AP, Gore, Bradshaw, Run DMC, Hillis, Torain, Blount, Thomas Jones). I think 15 carries is a much more realistic estimate and if he averages 4.0ypc that's shy of 1000 yards.

[davidgrey]

Do you guys think it's a stretch to expect 1,200 yards and 10 TDs from Shonn Greene this year? I definitely gambled on the trade I made yesterday, and the only thing that is somewhat unclear for me is the ceiling for Greene.

No I don't think it is a stretch. I like him to surprise this year (And though I keep looking to steal him late, I keep missing or going in another direction. At least I have him in my dynasty leagues). But his lack of receiving skills hurts his value in PPR leagues, though he should still be a solid back.

[davidgrey]

Dave Grey
QB- Manning/Freeman- While I dont think this is a bad combo, I can see many headaches on who to start week to week
RB- Forte/Best/Addai- Solid but not spectacular.
WR/TE- Wallace/Williams/Jackson/miller- Great WRs and a decent TE.
bench- Spiller and Crabtree have nice upside.

overall- fringe playoff team

Good writeup and can't argue with that. Luckily my specialty is playing the matchups, lol, so hopefully I can work some magic with the QB position. My RBs scare me though, as I am really banking on Best to stay healthy. If he does, I think my RBs could score huge points with the PPR scoring. I do worry about the backups though as I'm not a huge Addai fan and who jnows with Spiller. Definitely my weakness. Really like my WR trio and think that is a huge strength and we shall see about my last round TE. Agree that at this point I am a fringe playoff team. If guys stay healthy and I play QB roulette well, I could be a force to reckon with. If injuries hit one of my RBs and I struggle with the QB, then I could be in for a long season. Only time will tell.

[revo]

Keep in mind while the Jets added Plax and Mason they lost Edwards and Cotchery. Not much of a difference IMO.

I'm not so sure. Cotchery was banged up for most of the season and was a virtual non-factor with just 425 yards receiving. Edwards & Mason were a wash yardage-wise last season (900 for Edwards, 800 for Mason), even if they acted in different capacities. Holmes is also back for a full season after being suspended four games. So if the additional 400 yards of Cotchery pads Holmes' full-season totals to give him about 1,200 yds, then you STILL have Burress to get fed.

Assuming some of those yards come courtesy of LT's lessened playing time, it's possible to expect Sanchez to increase his passing yds from a marginal 3,200 to perhaps a solid 3,600-3,700.

I don't think the Jets offense got markedly better (just different), so assuming that feasible passing increase, it should take away from the running game.

Too bad Greene doesn't catch the ball -- he would be an RB1 if he did.

[Hammer]

Griswolds

QB- Love Rivers and he is durable but no QB2 is a little disconcerting.
RB- MJD/Lynch- Gris upgraded the position to average with his recent acquisition.
WR/TE- Welker/White/Moss- terrific starting trio. Not high on Pettigrew
Bench- Some upside with the GB WR and Sproles helps as a byer week filler.

Overall this team looks to be one of the lower half.