RJ Pay for Play - Draft Discussion Thread 2011

[jwlincy]

I just updated the keeper column for all the players. You can see the keeper status for all players when you look at your team on the CBS Sportsline team page. There is a keeper column that shows next year's keeper status for all players. Please let me know if you find any errors.

[Trautdiggity]

1) They have another pass catching TE on their roster in John Carlson
2) It's not so much the equally bad QB play, but the fact Miller was Oakland's only real pass-catcher in the open field. In Seattle, quite unlike Oakland, they have a solid WR corps. Way too many mouths to feed, and the QB ain't bringing home the bacon.
3) he finished as the TE10 last year, TE12 in '09 and TE11 in '08. I don't think dropping to TE15 is a real stretch.
4) as Gris likes to pimp, he's wildly inconsistent. He had a four game stretch during key fantasy weeks last season where he was virtually invisible, and I'm sure anyone who had him soured badly on him -- probably even cut him in most leagues.

Given all that, I don't see how Miller improves upon last season's middling numbers. In fact, most projections I've seen for him drop him another 100 yards from last year -- which would be almost 300 yards off his peak seasons.

As I said earlier in this thread, 500-600 yard TEs are dime-a-dozen in leagues where one TE is needed. I'm actually a little surprised he got drafted!

The too many mouths to feed argument is valid, and one that surprisingly a lot of Miller detractors aren't making. The Carlson argument slightly less so. Carlson is banged up and they wouldn't have dropped a ton of money on Miller to see him lose PT to Carlson IMO. Carlson is a good possibility to be traded at some point if not released. As I recall, Miller played a lot of last season banged up (foot I believe) and that's what cost him so much productivity through the middle part of the season. Prior to the injury, Miller scored double digits Fantasy points in 4 of 5 weeks (leading up to week 8). I totally agree with you about tight ends beyond the top five but this is a guy who was getting better each season, derailed by injury last season and moving to a slightly worse situation. All tolled how far should that move him? I find it hard to believe enough to drop him 10 spots (and yes, many rankings had him sixth before he signed with Seattle).

[schlesinj]

As I recall, Miller played a lot of last season banged up (foot I believe) and that's what cost him so much productivity through the middle part of the season. Prior to the injury, Miller scored double digits Fantasy points in 4 of 5 weeks (leading up to week 8). I totally agree with you about tight ends beyond the top five but this is a guy who was getting better each season, derailed by injury last season and moving to a slightly worse situation. All tolled how far should that move him? I find it hard to believe enough to drop him 10 spots (and yes, many rankings had him sixth before he signed with Seattle).

He was hurt most of the season. I think I drafted him in my PPR league last year as the number 4 overall TE and I spent most of the season holding him in hopes he would come back strong.

I honestly think Tavaris Jackson is the blame for all of this. I ended up drafting Big Mike Williams in the 13th round as well. That was at the time 4 rounds better than his ADP. He is now sitting around the 11th round.

[davidgrey]

And there it is. I'm curious to hear everyone's take on this. I see a guy that was pushing top-6 status last season... who was being pushed somewhere between TE6 and TE8 before he signed with Seattle. NOw he is the 15th TE taken in this draft. All I keep hearing is how bad Tarvaris Jackson and the line are, etc., etc. etc. So I wonder if people really think Oakland's line was that much better? DId people really feel Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski, Jamarcus Russell, Kyle Boller and Charlie Frye were that much better than Jackson? I may be missing something but it seems to me he's falling WAAAAAAAY too far.

David, if I'm reading correctly that is your only TE as well? Love that if it's true.

Open for thoughts on this

Once I missed out on the top guys, I was going to wait a little and then I was ready to grab M Lewis, but he went right before me, so at that point I said, heck I'll wait until the end of the draft and see who is there as there really are options out there. Actually was surprised to see Miller here (Who I contemplated a couple/few rounds ago.

I don't think Carlson steals much honestly and think that Miller could be a nice surprise. While Jackson is not ideal, he is used to throwing to the TE and Miller has a ton of talent. Honestly, I think if you swapped him with a stud TE like Clark, Gates, etc, Miller would be the No. 1 guy in the league as the talent is there, just not the supporting cast. But in Seattle, I think he may be a little inconsistent.

I project him to be right about or just inside the top 10 this year at the TE position, so I am happy with the value.

[revo]

The too many mouths to feed argument is valid, and one that surprisingly a lot of Miller detractors aren't making. The Carlson argument slightly less so. Carlson is banged up and they wouldn't have dropped a ton of money on Miller to see him lose PT to Carlson IMO. Carlson is a good possibility to be traded at some point if not released. As I recall, Miller played a lot of last season banged up (foot I believe) and that's what cost him so much productivity through the middle part of the season. Prior to the injury, Miller scored double digits Fantasy points in 4 of 5 weeks (leading up to week 8). I totally agree with you about tight ends beyond the top five but this is a guy who was getting better each season, derailed by injury last season and moving to a slightly worse situation. All tolled how far should that move him? I find it hard to believe enough to drop him 10 spots (and yes, many rankings had him sixth before he signed with Seattle).

If Carlson gets just 150-200 yards receiving, that will knock Miller's ceiling down to the 600 yard mark. It's not the money argument -- Carlson is still a solid pass catcher, and if they use two TEs, then Carlson will eat into Miller's numbers.

If you want to blame being banged up on his poor production last season, that's fine, and perhaps that makes him a bit of a bargain. But I don't see a return to the glory days of 800+ yards for him in that offense.

[davidgrey]

He was hurt most of the season. I think I drafted him in my PPR league last year as the number 4 overall TE and I spent most of the season holding him in hopes he would come back strong.

I honestly think Tavaris Jackson is the blame for all of this. I ended up drafting Big Mike Williams in the 13th round as well. That was at the time 4 rounds better than his ADP. He is now sitting around the 11th round.

Yeah he was pretty much on the injury report every week from the middle of the season (I believe he started appearing on the injury report week 8) and was limited in practice or missed a good bit of practices. Prior to the injury he had been playing pretty well and had scored 4 TDs in 5 games. After the injury, he had 5 catches for 28 yards in 4 games. Then he came back on at the end of the season, even though he still was not healthy.

If he produces his average numbers for those 4 games he was very limited in, you are probably looking at 70+ catches, 800+ yards and 7 TDs. If he did not get hurt, he may have been really huge considering how hot he was early.

Now Seattle is a different situation, but I still expect him to be involved a good bit in the passing game and they paid him like they want him to be the man. We shall see.

[SeaDogStat]

[thinkingoutsidethebox]

I took Hardesty because Hillis is on the cover of EA Sports Madden '12...

[/graspingatstrawsinround15]

[jwlincy]

I believe that this was the first year where somebody didn't try to draft a player that was previously drafted by another team. Congrats guys on paying attention.

[SeaDogStat]

I believe that this was the first year where somebody didn't try to draft a player that was previously drafted by another team. Congrats guys on paying attention.

And no kicker before round 13...Two PD streaks killed in one draft

[Trautdiggity]

And no kicker before round 13...Two PD streaks killed in one draft

The Trifecta: No Tony Hunt

[frae]

Anyone up for doing any team reviews? If people have their roster thread updated I will try to do some as I have time at night or this weekend, but would be interested to hear a few view points.

[Hammer]

I will try to review a few teams over the next few days.

[revo]

If Carlson gets just 150-200 yards receiving, that will knock Miller's ceiling down to the 600 yard mark. It's not the money argument -- Carlson is still a solid pass catcher, and if they use two TEs, then Carlson will eat into Miller's numbers.

If you want to blame being banged up on his poor production last season, that's fine, and perhaps that makes him a bit of a bargain. But I don't see a return to the glory days of 800+ yards for him in that offense.

No further need to worry about John Carlson -- he's gone for the year with shoulder surgery.

[Hammer]

I will leave it to you guys to evaluate my squad

Webbs
QB- Ryan will be very good this year. I think there is no need to have both McCoy and McNabb but thats prolly picking nits.
RB- I like Gore although his health is a slight concern. I am not as high on Ingram as others because Thomas is going to play. I dont like McGahee in the starting lineup.
WR/TE- Bryant, Nicks, Witten are a great group.

bench- good depth with Starks and Collie

overall it looks like a playoff contender.

[Stephen]

Thanks for the that Hammer.

I agree with you that having both McCoy and McNabb is excessive, but they were a toss up for me and when McCoy was still available he was the best player on my board so I figured I'd take a flier. Maybe someone ends up needed a QB and I've got some trade chips.

I don't like McGahee in the starting line up on Week 1 either. I'll being using Collie there.