*** VD 6 Commentary Thread ***

[heyelander]

we aren't really skipping 2 of Eld's picks are we?

[heyelander]

So I've got a good feeling that I'm not coming in 11th here... I'm even dreaming that I may have a shot at like 8th or 9th. Is that just wishful thinking on my part?

[Pogues]

So I've got a good feeling that I'm not coming in 11th here... I'm even dreaming that I may have a shot at like 8th or 9th. Is that just wishful thinking on my part?

I've got you in 6th right now, but that's with my guesses on the last two picks. I predicted 2 of the 4 picks after me dead on, and just picked the wrong year on Zachary. Leave it to Johnny to find someone else worth more points than I found.

[johnnya24]

Johnny Damon has put together an impressive career for himself.

[johnnya24]

Final Standings:

1	JohnnyA__	52.6	37.2	52.6	36.2	178.6
2	Controller_	40.6	42.5	43.2	49.8	176.1
3	Hacko____	42.4	41.0	33.1	43.3	159.7
4	Revo_____	33.3	40.5	47.5	38.2	159.5
5	Pogues__	42.3	45.5	26.4	45.0	159.1
6	ElDiablo__	35.8	38.4	45.5	39.1	158.8
7	Slasher___	35.1	39.2	41.6	40.8	156.8
8	Heyelander	44.3	43.3	37.5	30.7	155.9
9	TS Garp__	34.2	37.3	44.0	39.8	155.3
10	Frae______	41.3	34.4	40.6	29.2	145.6
11	Knuckler__	32.3	34.6	22.0	41.9	130.9

In Draft Order:

6	ElDiablo__	35.8	38.4	45.5	39.1	158.8
4	Revo_____	33.3	40.5	47.5	38.2	159.5
8	Heyelander	44.3	43.3	37.5	30.7	155.9
10	Frae______	41.3	34.4	40.6	29.2	145.6
5	Pogues__	42.3	45.5	26.4	45.0	159.1
2	Controller_	40.6	42.5	43.2	49.8	176.1
7	Slasher___	35.1	39.2	41.6	40.8	156.8
1	JohnnyA__	52.6	37.2	52.6	36.2	178.6
11	Knuckler__	32.3	34.6	22.0	41.9	130.9
3	Hacko____	42.4	41.0	33.1	43.3	159.7
9	TS Garp__	34.2	37.3	44.0	39.8	155.3

[johnnya24]

I can say it now, but that was a stunning performance from Controller J.

The key moment for me in this draft was just before I picked Willie Mays. At that point every other team had invested in at least 1 premium pitcher, and most had bought 2. It was clear at that point that no-one was going to try a pitching punt strategy. It wasn't clear what other people were doing, but I really needed to make a choice at that point, because picking Mays on the back off Lajoie, Yount, Anson and Speaker invests me very heavily in hitting, and it was high risk to going with a 4 category punt (Ratio punt or W/K punt).

The W/K punt was out the window ... you need to plan that from the start with the IP minimum. So I was left thinking Career ratio punt, or straight Ratio punt. I thought for a minute about Career Ratios and Saves, but with no-one else obviously punting, there would be no point punting saves ... I wasn't going to need to hit 250 BY wins etc, and there would be little competition for the dog closers. I kinda knew I was going to have to 3/4 category punt here, because I would ahve little balance after the Mays pick.

Gibson and Mordecai Brown were still on the FA lists, so I could have really got myself balanced out with the 5th and 6th picks, but I also knew I was going to be very busy this month, so I was willing to gamble that I could get enough points through a Ratio punt ... it's by far the simplest strategy. So I decided on an each way bet, and picked a couple of stats anchor picks that allowed me the option of the Career Ratio punt only (Perry and Niekro), if that was still viable later on.

The other consideration here was KO's ... I didn't want to tip my hand before KO's were finished, so I had to make sure the SP's I choose were not red flags. I didn't want the obvious Ratio punt guys getting KO'd on mass. I made sure I didn't pick Quinn until after that point. It wouldn't have made any difference in the end though ...

I figured that the absolute ceiling for a 4 category punt in this format (multi +1) was 177.5 points. With 11 players, and a lot of extra points in the scoring pool (847 as opposed to 550 in VD5), I approximated the winning total to be about 175 points, so this was a risky strategy to adopt if winning was the goal. It was a no-brainer if all I wanted to do was be competitive. In the end, the lack of competition, and the fact that everyone else cutting each others' throats, meant I was able to absolutely dominate the hitting ... at one point I thought I could get 12's in 8 of the 10 categories, and 10's or 11's in HR's. In the end I averaged 11.3 across all the hitting categories! I thought when I picked Lou Brock in the 11th this was over.

I was actually wrong, because if I had've made a misstep, Controller would have had me. There was a week when I going through the motions with my pitching selections that I barely checked onto to RJ ... and my plan was Bruce Edwards for my final Catcher slot, rather than my final iteration which involved using a WC on Walker Cooper. Without the option of Cooper, I cannot win. If I had've got my pitching balance wrong, I cannot win ... for instance I was looking at Keith Foulke (with Fuentes as back up) for my final closer ... if I had stuck with that plan, Controller wins.

So I got lucky in the end ... because that was a stunning performance from Controller J. From round 6 I was targeting my KO's at him and Feral. They both needed S's, Feral needed a K and CJ an L. Those were the letters I was looking at KO's. I stuck with S because that targeted both. But for my last KO I was left with a choice of Kaline (to target Feral) or Lazzeri (to target Controller). I made the wrong choice. Should have KO'd Lazzeri ... that would have made CJ's life hard.

I get the W, but Controller get the moral victory. He somehow managed to punt career BA and Saves, and still finish top in BY BA and BY saves ... and at the same time remain competitive across the board in all the other categories. He crushed the field on basically the same strategy by 17+ points. He deserved the win.

The balance of his team and selections was excellent: Alexander and Mathewson setting up the later Nolan Ryan pick, the forward planning for his planned punt categories (Career Saves and Career BA), excellent letter management ... all of which set up big value later picks like Carey, Sheckard & Galarraga.

I feel dirty taking the victory this time

Also, very well done to Hacko ... who has quietly put in another very good performance ... snatching 3rd from Revo at the death.

[johnnya24]

As a point of comparison, here are the standings using traditional Roto additive scoring:

1. Johnny 184.5
2. Control 168.5
3. Pogues 143

I'd have won by a massive 14 points, and beating 3rd place by 41.5 points! I suppose that's one reason why additive scoring is dead.

[Controller Jacobs]

I actually think this was one of my worst drafts. But because VD 6 was so similar to VD 5, my scoring was almost spot-on, and I used it to generate very accurate decade, letter and position adjustments. I could've made the scoring better by adjusting for VD 6 (wildcards and knockouts), but that's not what sunk me. What sunk me was taking my second catcher and third mi early, preventing me from cashing in on a lucky combo later on. In vd 5 I picked up Mike Napoli and Tony Lazzeri late because I left those spots open. In vd 6 I saw a large number of similar deals, but couldn't make use of them. Oh well...

[johnnya24]

I actually think this was one of my worst drafts. But because VD 6 was so similar to VD 5, my scoring was almost spot-on, and I used it to generate very accurate decade, letter and position adjustments. I could've made the scoring better by adjusting for VD 6 (wildcards and knockouts), but that's not what sunk me. What sunk me was taking my second catcher and third mi early, preventing me from cashing in on a lucky combo later on. In vd 5 I picked up Mike Napoli and Tony Lazzeri late because I left those spots open. In vd 6 I saw a large number of similar deals, but couldn't make use of them. Oh well...

I don't put too much emphasis on hitting precise targets these days. I used to do that, but I found that it hampers flexibility too much. It's better to aim for ranges rather than targets IMO ... it's like in poker ... you need to try and put your opponent on a range of hands, not on a precise hand. I learned a lot from watching KS's early drafts ... the way he went with value and kept his options open for as long as possible, constantly evaluating the flow, and then re-assessing his position based on that. VD'ing clicked for me when I incorporated a full understanding of draft flow. Having precise targets forces you into picking precise players and/or combos of players, and this can seriously screw you up if someone throws a spanner in the works (this happened to me repeatedly in VD4).

From my perspective, and the manner in which I draft, your team and the way it was pieced together was superb ... your selections have an excellent flow and everything fits together with no lost value. Obviously you see your team with different eyes, but I can't see any major flaws at all, and I don't see that filling your C and MI slots really hampered you. I agree in general it is a tactical error to fill all your C and MI slots too early ... it is painful watching massive value fall and fall and you cannot pick it. It's also good to keep the option open for later ... and of course, if you need to dump a slot, you have one there waiting. But I don't see that as being a relevant factor for your team.

The only gap I can see is maybe your BY HR and SB's totals. You never really found a way to get a big BY SB guy on board ... but still found a way to scrape 5 points. Your pitching balance, set up, planning and execution was excellent.

You last 6 hitters were huge:

Ordonez (I only got him very late in VD5 because I had Ortiz, and even O'Neil as suitable back ups ... still great value when you got him ... and a perfect fit)
Vernon (mediocre decade, ENV, great all-rounder, perfect fit for your team)
Brett (another perfect fit)
Carey (to get a player of Carey's value from a decade as crap as the 1910's at the death is excellent value)
Sheckard (see Carey ... Sheckard was an even more perfect fit for your team)
Galarraga (... and you left yourself with the flexibility of all those high value G's in the 1990's)

I look at these drafts like a virtual jigsaw puzzle, and win or lose, I like to look back and see that I didn't put any pieces in the wrong places. In terms of "fit" (value) and "draft flow" (balance), your team is a few BY HR's and SB's away from being perfect.

[heyelander]

tease with your "probably 5th place" bullshit...

[johnnya24]

tease with your "probably 5th place" bullshit...

I also thought Revo was secure in 3rd place, and he ended up 5th.

That was a total free for all for positions 3-9 ... never seen anything like that before. The quality is really high these days. That's also why I think CJ is the moral victor in this one ... he crushed that pack of 7 players by 17 points with a similar strategy.

[heyelander]

That is unless Heye messed with my spreadsheet and I can't draft him

I'd just rather you didn't

[hacko]

I also thought Revo was secure in 3rd place, and he ended up 5th.

That was a total free for all for positions 3-9 ... never seen anything like that before. The quality is really high these days. That's also why I think CJ is the moral victor in this one ... he crushed that pack of 7 players by 17 points with a similar strategy.

I had this too last night for the longest time. I probably spent more time on my last pick then all the rest combine - I went through about 100 Pitchers before I landed on Old Scott. I had Roberts then Bill Pierce for the longest time then in a matter of minutes went to Herb Score then to my last pick. At that time I think I went to 5th and woke up this morning after Garp pick to end up in third.

I am ignoring Johnny and CJ and declaring myself::::

Winner of the MAster division - over 55
Winner of the Pony Division - Frae (who I smack around like a dead mule) Heye and Knuckler
Winner of the rocket Scientist division - Finishing in front of Slasher
and of course the most Highly prized championship - Winner of the "Fuck you Eld - eat a bag of dicks" division

[heyelander]

Yeah, seriously poor showing from Frae this time around.

[revo]

Hmmm, copying/pasting all of Johnny's entries in the history thread gives me a different result:

1 - Johnny 178.8
2 - Controller 176.1
3 - Revo 161.1
4 - Hacko 157.5
5 - Pogues 156.7
6 - Heye 156.3
7 - Slasher 154.1
7 - Diablo 153.6
9 - Garp 153.0
10 - Frae 145.6
11 - Knuckler 143.3