*** VD 14 Commentary Thread ***

[heyelander]

I think that is the one selection you don't have to put much thought into. It has been the most obvious pick for anyone for many rounds now.

pick your own damn team.

[DMT]

RavenClaudell Washington

[Ken]

pick your own damn team.

I'm inkalined to agree with you here.

[Ken]

Ravenclaude Hendrix?


Yeah, that one sucks.

He's on my team, thanks a lot.

[Bene Futuis]

I love angry heyelander. Except that one time he got angry at me. I didn't like that one damn bit.

[heyelander]

I love angry heyelander. Except that one time he got angry at me. I didn't like that one damn bit.

was that when you didn't invite me to your passing the bar party?

[cavebird]

It is really weird how similar that mystery other guy is to Mort Cooper, eh?

It's freaky. Picking between them is almost pointless.

[cavebird]

Heyelander knows he's up, right?

[cavebird]

Okay, since we have a pause, here is my contenders analysis. Note that my projections cannot all come true---with no way to know who gets which player when two teams makes sense for a guy, I Just give him to both teams until someone takes him. Still, it is about as accurate as I can be with 5+ rounds left. One overall note---this one is very close. In VD 6, the last one like this one, the top two were separated by three points, but then third was 16 points behind second. Not so here, where there are six teams within 10 points of first. The difference between first and eighth is only 12 points.

Top Two:

DMT
cavebird

Impossibly close between us. There is a bit of separation between us and the rest, but not much. Note that this is not particularly good for me---I have been working on my guys for ages and just do quick looks at other teams. This is probably very good for DMT. However, there are a few in the next tier that could easily win, too.

Tier Two: The other teams that could win.

frae
Controller Jacobs
Bene Futuis
TS Garp

I think frae especially has upside here with all the good letters and good decades left it was impossible to check every possibility. However, the position constraints he has are a problem. Controller Jacobs also seems to have upside. The other two are still close enough and with enough upside that they have a shot, but they'll have to find something I didn't.

Tier Three: The weird ones

johnnya24
The Feral Slasher

johnny should really be in the tier above based upon his standings. He just doesn't have any upside with the mess of positions and letters he has left. Feral is currently in first, but his team is a bit of a mess. If he gets snaked on one player, he might have a difficult time finishing his roster legally, and he could come in last. But, if he pulls off what he can, he'll be middle of the pack---there's just no upside from that---I am pretty sure I didn't miss any better choices at V and QUIZ x2. Yikes.

Tier Four: The Failed Ratio Tanks

revo
Hacko

revo, I still can't figure out what he can do other than a ratio tank, but I don't see a good way to do it now. I have no clue how he could actually be competitive in ratios. Maybe he has a plan. Then he could end up anywhere in the standings. Hacko's ratio punt is at least official now (after he took Quinn one would think it was), but I don't see how Monte Irvin every works with a ratio punt. There is an obvious QUI for that. Still, ratio tanks don't finish in last, and these won't either.

Tier Five: At Least They Know Their Fate

heyelander
Ken

These guys are talking about finishing last, and, unless Feral can't finish his roster, one of them will. It looks really close between them. My projection has Ken slightly in last, but it's still anyone's game.

[The Feral Slasher]

Okay, since we have a pause, here is my contenders analysis. Note that my projections cannot all come true---with no way to know who gets which player when two teams makes sense for a guy, I Just give him to both teams until someone takes him. Still, it is about as accurate as I can be with 5+ rounds left. One overall note---this one is very close. In VD 6, the last one like this one, the top two were separated by three points, but then third was 16 points behind second. Not so here, where there are six teams within 10 points of first. The difference between first and eighth is only 12 points.

Top Two:

DMT
cavebird

Impossibly close between us. There is a bit of separation between us and the rest, but not much. Note that this is not particularly good for me---I have been working on my guys for ages and just do quick looks at other teams. This is probably very good for DMT. However, there are a few in the next tier that could easily win, too.

Tier Two: The other teams that could win.

frae
Controller Jacobs
Bene Futuis
TS Garp

I think frae especially has upside here with all the good letters and good decades left it was impossible to check every possibility. However, the position constraints he has are a problem. Controller Jacobs also seems to have upside. The other two are still close enough and with enough upside that they have a shot, but they'll have to find something I didn't.

Tier Three: The weird ones

johnnya24
The Feral Slasher

johnny should really be in the tier above based upon his standings. He just doesn't have any upside with the mess of positions and letters he has left. Feral is currently in first, but his team is a bit of a mess. If he gets snaked on one player, he might have a difficult time finishing his roster legally, and he could come in last. But, if he pulls off what he can, he'll be middle of the pack---there's just no upside from that---I am pretty sure I didn't miss any better choices at V and QUIZ x2. Yikes.

Tier Four: The Failed Ratio Tanks

revo
Hacko

revo, I still can't figure out what he can do other than a ratio tank, but I don't see a good way to do it now. I have no clue how he could actually be competitive in ratios. Maybe he has a plan. Then he could end up anywhere in the standings. Hacko's ratio punt is at least official now (after he took Quinn one would think it was), but I don't see how Monte Irvin every works with a ratio punt. There is an obvious QUI for that. Still, ratio tanks don't finish in last, and these won't either.

Tier Five: At Least They Know Their Fate

heyelander
Ken

These guys are talking about finishing last, and, unless Feral can't finish his roster, one of them will. It looks really close between them. My projection has Ken slightly in last, but it's still anyone's game.

I liked my analysis better....don't think I can get snaked on the key quizy, but that thought occurred to me.

[The Feral Slasher]

RavenClaudell Washington

Al Dumble-Dark is managing the skwad

[Bene Futuis]

was that when you didn't invite me to your passing the bar party?

Ha, I can't really remember what it was anymore. I was arguing with someone else and you responded with something to the effect that "Bene is such a dickface shitbag motherfucker that he's convincing me to take the other side" simply because of the way I'd argued my point. At least that's what I recall --- I'm not even sure when it was.

But, yeah, why the hell didn't you show up to my passing the bar party? That's kind of a hilarious story in and of itself, that party lol.

[frae]

Well, I guess I will really need to focus on the last few picks. In my mind, I have 2 picks that are mine no matter what, but then with 2 WC and some good letters, I don't know which combo will be best.

[The Feral Slasher]

Ha, I can't really remember what it was anymore. I was arguing with someone else and you responded with something to the effect that "Bene is such a dickface shitbag motherfucker that he's convincing me to take the other side" simply because of the way I'd argued my point. At least that's what I recall --- I'm not even sure when it was.

wait, we are trying to narrow this down to a single occurrence ? that makes it kinda tricky

[The Feral Slasher]

Okay, since we have a pause, here is my contenders analysis. Note that my projections cannot all come true---with no way to know who gets which player when two teams makes sense for a guy, I Just give him to both teams until someone takes him. Still, it is about as accurate as I can be with 5+ rounds left. One overall note---this one is very close. In VD 6, the last one like this one, the top two were separated by three points, but then third was 16 points behind second. Not so here, where there are six teams within 10 points of first. The difference between first and eighth is only 12 points.

Top Two:

DMT
cavebird

Impossibly close between us. There is a bit of separation between us and the rest, but not much. Note that this is not particularly good for me---I have been working on my guys for ages and just do quick looks at other teams. This is probably very good for DMT. However, there are a few in the next tier that could easily win, too.

Tier Two: The other teams that could win.

frae
Controller Jacobs
Bene Futuis
TS Garp

I think frae especially has upside here with all the good letters and good decades left it was impossible to check every possibility. However, the position constraints he has are a problem. Controller Jacobs also seems to have upside. The other two are still close enough and with enough upside that they have a shot, but they'll have to find something I didn't.

Tier Three: The weird ones

johnnya24
The Feral Slasher

johnny should really be in the tier above based upon his standings. He just doesn't have any upside with the mess of positions and letters he has left. Feral is currently in first, but his team is a bit of a mess. If he gets snaked on one player, he might have a difficult time finishing his roster legally, and he could come in last. But, if he pulls off what he can, he'll be middle of the pack---there's just no upside from that---I am pretty sure I didn't miss any better choices at V and QUIZ x2. Yikes.

Tier Four: The Failed Ratio Tanks

revo
Hacko

revo, I still can't figure out what he can do other than a ratio tank, but I don't see a good way to do it now. I have no clue how he could actually be competitive in ratios. Maybe he has a plan. Then he could end up anywhere in the standings. Hacko's ratio punt is at least official now (after he took Quinn one would think it was), but I don't see how Monte Irvin every works with a ratio punt. There is an obvious QUI for that. Still, ratio tanks don't finish in last, and these won't either.

Tier Five: At Least They Know Their Fate

heyelander
Ken

These guys are talking about finishing last, and, unless Feral can't finish his roster, one of them will. It looks really close between them. My projection has Ken slightly in last, but it's still anyone's game.

Makes me angry to think Johnny is out washing windows and posting random picks and will finish in front of me.