*** VD 14 Commentary Thread ***

[cavebird]

Garp on the other hand, broke my projection system. I have absolutely no clue what he is doing now.

[cavebird]

FWIW, Sweeney doesn't really change your contender status---barely different in the standings than the guy I had for you.

[cavebird]

No, I am wrong again. I just checked. I just had you with a different deadball S pitcher. Nevermind.

[cavebird]

S was the very bizarre pick I had for you; you are right, your S options were limited beyond Sheffield---which is why I had to take Sheffield when I did--he never makes it back to me.

[frae]

Well, CB's Sheffield pick really narrowed what I would call good options for using my S, and while I tried a bunch of other ways I built up a lot of career stats from other guys that I think Sweeney fits well. Surprisingly S is not very deep with CI's in the 90's and 00's and isn't very good for 90's pitchers either.

[cavebird]

It would be fun if Garp came around and we got some picks today. The next few picks should be fascinating and play an interesting role in how the rest of the draft shakes out. Or they could all go on weird paths (well, that would be tough for Johnny) and not really determine anything.

[cavebird]

Surprising. From what you’ve posted your projections are pretty far off

I just noted that I actually got one right! (Well, I also got mine right, but that doesn't really count, lol.) I did get Orth right, too, but Hacko's pretty easy to guess at this point given the ratio tank. This far out, most of them will be a little off. When I adjust them, it usually doesn't make a ton of difference. For example, I had DMT doing something completely different with his pitchers, but when I adjusted the projections after his picks, his stats and place in the standings stayed more or less the same. Of the 64 picks there are left, about a quarter of them are pretty obvious, so those will be right. With the rest, there are often a few different combinations people can use, so it isn't hard to adjust the projections after a pick. That being said, some teams are very tricky to project--revo is the best example---he could try two completely different base strategies (ratio tank or save ratios) and while he continues to straddle the fence, the projections for him could be wildly off---it isn't about just changing one pick to move a letter from this decade to that decade---it is changing every single pick to align with the strategy he chooses. On the other hand, Johnny doesn't have that many viable plans given his positions left (there just aren't that many catchers at certain decades with certain letters), so he is easier to project, at least down to a couple of plans.

Until the last two or three rounds, when people's choices are very limited, projections are a broad tool---not so useful to show exactly how everything will pan out, but to give an idea of about where people will end up so one can try to maximize one's place in the standing by knowing the numbers one will need to do as well as possible.

[Ken]

Well, the pick took forever, but at least it is one I had projected.

Surprising. From what you’ve posted your projections are pretty far off

[cavebird]

Well, the pick took forever, but at least it is one I had projected.

[frae]

That Amish buggy just lapped us...

[The Feral Slasher]

Welp, pack it in folks. Looks like we're done here. We can call DMT the winner. Or, fuck it --- let's go Heyelander.

Heye ftw. I get second

[cavebird]

Well, TS Garp has shown up now. Maybe we'll actually make Friday night interesting with a bunch of picks. Maybe a bunch of folks will enjoy their food. Sigh. Now I remember the problem of VD endgames, it is all about who other people take.

[The Feral Slasher]

I actually haven't shaved in about 3 weeks. Confirmed that i can not grow a beard at all. Glad no one can see me

[The Feral Slasher]

Ewww ... you think?

Ok, to be fair i didn't have a shower and just woke up when they took this picture

[cavebird]

When I said oops it was because I'm out delivering food

What matters more, people eating or people getting a VD pick? Sheez, get your priorities straight.