2K24: Houston Astros

[Hornsby]

Aiken+Close look like bumbling idiots for not taking the $5M which is likely higher than Aiken will get in whatever draft he enters.

Meh, people said the same thing about Appel when he turned down the Pirates offer...Houston almost doubled his bonus the following season. You roll the dice and you take your chances...

[Hornsby]

No... if you don't sign someone the slot money for that pick is subtracted from the total pool you can pay your top 10 picks. They needed to sign Aiken for 800k underslot to pay Nix. When Aiken doesn't sign, it's as if he signed for fully price. They had 7.3M less they could spend on their top 10 picks.

OK, got it...

[Bodhizefa]

The Astros decided that Aiken+Nix+Mac was worth the risk but that they'd rather have the #2 pick next year than Aiken+Nix. To add Mac, they needed to drop Aiken's offer.

The Astros look like bumbling fools for the way they negotiated.

Aiken+Close look like bumbling idiots for not taking the $5M which is likely higher than Aiken will get in whatever draft he enters.

No side won or even looked remotely capable in this situation, that's for sure. Whatever the Astros did to disenchant Aiken's camp so badly that they wouldn't even respond to offers at the deadline day is pretty scary. In the end, this is a kid you're dealing with, and you have to take that kind of thing into account. Low-balling him until the very last minute seems like something Luhnow could get away with with other GM's when wheeling and dealing, but not with a 17-year-old who is every bit as mature as anyone else at 17 (which is to say not very). The Astros badly overplayed their hand, and Aiken let pride get in the way of signing what was probably a fair offer at $5 million.

Basically, if you're the Astros, you've got to be a lot more pro-active about the post-MRI/mini UCL offer to Aiken than to wait until the last hour of signing day to get it done. You've got to re-court the kid and talk to him about the inherent risks and the fact that you're still 100% behind him but that you have to mitigate the risk with a lower offer. R.A. Dickey had to deal with a lower offer after it was found out he had no UCL, and you've got to be kind about how you break the news to him. Maybe the Astros did all this and Aiken just thought he was above the MRI report, in which case, it's on him. But the evidence we've heard up till now suggests both parties acted poorly throughout, and everybody ends up losing because of it. If the Astros really do have a number cruncher in their office who thought that saving $1.5 million on Aiken (at their final $5 million offer) in order to also sign Marshall was somehow worth the risk of the awful black eye the organization would get if Aiken didn't sign, then that's the guy who should be canned. And if that's Luhnow? Then I say he's a part of the problem and not the solution. And Aiken and Close are equally dumb to have ignored the $5 million offer at the end, but if Luhnow was as aloof with them as he has been in other offers with other teams, then that's on him, too.

Nobody wins, dammit!

(No offense meant to the Astros lurkers among us, obviously.)

[cardboardbox]

Meh, people said the same thing about Appel when he turned down the Pirates offer...Houston almost doubled his bonus the following season. You roll the dice and you take your chances...

I checked the slots a few days ago and assuming the Astros cant/wont draft Aiken next year he'd have to go 1st or 3rd to be in a higher slot than $5M. Very unlikely that happens.

[Hornsby]

I checked the slots a few days ago and assuming the Astros cant/wont draft Aiken next year he'd have to go 1st or 3rd to be in a higher slot than $5M. Very unlikely that happens.

I don't see why that's unlikely...if he stays healthy, he's still only 19, and a year more polished. He was already described as the most complete HS pitcher most had ever seen...no reason he declines.

[heyelander]

just for book-keeping sake, it looks like the #1 slot money was 7.9M

[cardboardbox]

I don't see why that's unlikely...if he stays healthy, he's still only 19, and a year more polished. He was already described as the most complete HS pitcher most had ever seen...no reason he declines.

No reason he declines? Did you miss his MRI results? The Astros decided they'd rather have the #2 pick next year than have Aiken and Nix this year.

Add to this that the only direction Aiken can move is down. If he needs TJ surgery he'd drop quite a bit. Or he loses a little velocity, or a little movement, then he's not going to be in the running for #1 any more. It takes a perfect storm to end up #1 and its unlikely to happen twice.

[onejayhawk]

Unless he's the rare talent that is under rated at #1. I don't think that's the case, but time will tell.

J

[Kevin Seitzer]

but if Luhnow was as aloof with them as he has been in other offers with other teams

What's ridiculous to me is how the conversation around Jeff has turned so much on its head that it's basically accepted that this view is true. I've had a lot of bosses in my day, and I've only had one other boss who cared as much about treating people kindly, fairly, and honestly as Jeff does. Not just the people who work for him, but everyone. But he also doesn't slag people in public, so when a player moves on and says untrue things about us, or agent who didn't get the offer he wanted from us for his player chalks it up in public to the cold, calculating, unfeeling robots in the Astros front office, people want to believe that narrative, and Jeff takes the high road and doesn't respond by bashing the player. I've never worked in an environment where people tried more to do right by each other than this one, and there is a huge emphasis on taking care of our players and empowering them. All that starts from the top. The idea that Jeff is aloof or cold in his dealings or doesn't care deeply about the players is complete and utter horseshit.

[Hornsby]

No reason he declines? Did you miss his MRI results? The Astros decided they'd rather have the #2 pick next year than have Aiken and Nix this year.

Add to this that the only direction Aiken can move is down. If he needs TJ surgery he'd drop quite a bit. Or he loses a little velocity, or a little movement, then he's not going to be in the running for #1 any more. It takes a perfect storm to end up #1 and its unlikely to happen twice.

Apparently you missed the conversation about the elbow where pretty much every doctor said that the fact that he has a small ligament in and of itself means virtually nothing at all. You're jumping to conclusions where the medical people aren't.

A person with knowledge of the situation told the Chronicle on Tuesday that there is a “cut-and-dry” issue with Aiken’s ulnar collateral ligament, even though he is presently able to pitch. Aiken has visited five doctors, the person said: two affiliated with the team and three who were not, including the renowned Dr. James Andrews.

“He may have some (of the UCL), but not much,” the person said, adding that Tommy John surgery, which has become common in baseball, would not be a straightforward solution in this instance.

How tricky Tommy John surgery would actually be and the level of risk Aiken faces isn’t easily decipherable from afar. Dr. Chris Geary, an orthopedic surgeon and the chief of sports medicine at Tufts Medical center, said the presence of a congenitally small UCL on its own wouldn’t necessarily indicate danger, or a lessened risk of success with Tommy John surgery.

“Maybe the ulnar collateral ligament is small but he has a freakishly big flexor-pronator mass, something like that, where it’s like, for whatever reason, his anatomy is different, but it’s not impacting him,” Geary said. “It sounds to me like it’s not completely straightforward. It’s one of those things you could maybe, depending on what it actually is, you could kind of spin it depending on what your own agenda is.”

[Bodhizefa]

Apparently you missed the conversation about the elbow where pretty much every doctor said that the fact that he has a small ligament in and of itself means virtually nothing at all. You're jumping to conclusions where the medical people aren't.

They didn't say it means nothing at all, Horns. They said he is healthy and can go out and pitch immediately. The doctors never said anything about it meaning nothing at all.

[Bodhizefa]

What's ridiculous to me is how the conversation around Jeff has turned so much on its head that it's basically accepted that this view is true. I've had a lot of bosses in my day, and I've only had one other boss who cared as much about treating people kindly, fairly, and honestly as Jeff does. Not just the people who work for him, but everyone. But he also doesn't slag people in public, so when a player moves on and says untrue things about us, or agent who didn't get the offer he wanted from us for his player chalks it up in public to the cold, calculating, unfeeling robots in the Astros front office, people want to believe that narrative, and Jeff takes the high road and doesn't respond by bashing the player. I've never worked in an environment where people tried more to do right by each other than this one, and there is a huge emphasis on taking care of our players and empowering them. All that starts from the top. The idea that Jeff is aloof or cold in his dealings or doesn't care deeply about the players is complete and utter horseshit.

If it's horseshit, then why was Aiken so turned off that he (and Close) refused to even come back to the table with you guys? And why do media outlets report that Luhnow lowballs everyone and that some GM's don't appreciate it?

Look, I'm not saying Jeff Luhnow is a bad human being or anything. We're all complex individuals, and I don't think one way we interact with others should dictate an all-encompassing definition of who we are. All I'm saying is that some people's negotiation tactics can be taken personally, and it does seem like (from the outside) that that was the case here. And it's not hard to believe a 17-year-old would be put off by tough negotiating tactics, too. I certainly think there were wrongs on both sides, and Aiken is by no means blameless in this. The fact that he turned down $5 million is really tough for me to get behind in the future, and I'd be very surprised if he can ever get that amount as a signing bonus again.

The Astros failed this draft in a big way, and that blame has to go somewhere. Luhnow is the GM, so he shoulders much of it. If he's a good guy and a smart guy and he works well with people in general, then I'm sure this will all sort itself out in the end and you guys will rise to the top eventually. But at the moment, his negotiation tactics seem to be a bit of an Achilles heel.

[Bodhizefa]

No reason he declines? Did you miss his MRI results? The Astros decided they'd rather have the #2 pick next year than have Aiken and Nix this year.

Add to this that the only direction Aiken can move is down. If he needs TJ surgery he'd drop quite a bit. Or he loses a little velocity, or a little movement, then he's not going to be in the running for #1 any more. It takes a perfect storm to end up #1 and its unlikely to happen twice.

I agree with you wholeheartedly. We all act like a top talent is always going to perform at his max capability, but scouts (and people) are generally fickle when we see anyone waver in any capacity from their perceived norm. Carlos Rodon was a lock to be #1 at this time last year, and he fell this year. In any given season in fantasy drafts, the #1 fantasy pick often fails to be the best player, too, and many times that player is chosen at a slightly lower spot the ensuing year. Performance varies, and what are the odds that, even if healthy, Aiken is able to repeat his amazing performance from this year as he moves up into Junior College or an Independent league? And that's not even considering the likelihood that he could be injured. And then there's the issue of what teams will think of him for not even negotiating at the end when the Astros came calling with a $5 million offer. Who knows how that will affect his future stock?

I very much doubt Aiken comes back as the #1 pick. I can see him being a Top 10 guy if he stays healthy, but #1? There's very little chance.

[Kevin Seitzer]

If it's horseshit, then why was Aiken so turned off that he (and Close) refused to even come back to the table with you guys? And why do media outlets report that Luhnow lowballs everyone and that some GM's don't appreciate it?

I can't say anything about the draft negotiations.

But the second question--I think the media impression of the Astros regarding negotiations with players/agents is a combination of three things. One is that our org doesn't leak anything. And when a player gets an offer and is happy with it, they either sign or they don't, but they don't tend to leak anything, either. But when they get an offer they're not happy with, the agent will use the press to his advantage. I think it's an admirable quality that we don't leak confidential stuff to the media just to make ourselves look better at the expense of the other party, but we do take a short-term hit on our public reputation. Secondly, the Astros have been really bad for about six years now, and that makes some people angry at the organization and puts everything you do in a bad light. Thirdly, the Astros have a reputation as a "sabermetric" organization, and whether that reputation is deserved or all the connotations are accurate is mostly irrelevant, but it makes us a lightning rod for criticism from people who hate how sabermetrics is changing the game, whether or not that has anything to do with the Astros. Combine that with the losing, and it's especially true.

I'm not sure though what you mean that "some GM's don't appreciate it", since I don't think other GM's really care how we negotiate with players.

[bryanbutler]

Apparently you missed the conversation about the elbow where pretty much every doctor said that the fact that he has a small ligament in and of itself means virtually nothing at all. You're jumping to conclusions where the medical people aren't.

wow, misread much? it's risk. even though he's fine now, there's a potential issue down the road because "his anatomy is different." and if he *does* have problems, TJ is not a simple solution. i take this as a yellow flag, definitely, maybe even tinting to red.