is todd helton a hall of famer?

[Long John]

I don't think this is true, it certainly wasn't for Larkin or Puckett. I think Helton has a big advantage over Larry Walker, because like Larkin and Puckett, Helton has played his entire career for one team. So Colorado ownership and fans will be pushing hard for him, and others will see him as the face of the Colorado franchise for much of his career (he was their WAR leader from 2000-2005).

I personally think he's borderline, but I strongly believe he'll go in.

I agree. I think if you're just looking at his stats, he's not going to stack up to a ton of past HOF players. But I'll take him over Bill Mazeroski any day of the week and twice on Sundays. The guy's a gamer, plays through pain and fought through a cranky back to stay in the game these past 5-6 years. His useful longevity should count for something. And he's the face of that franchise, absolutely. I'm pulling for him to get in, but I understand the argument against (in regards to position, not the Coors effect).

[SMELL THE GLOVE]

he's a fantasy baseball HOFer

[Cobain's Ghost]

it was cool to see coors field fill up for #17's last home game, and even cooler to see him hit one more bomb on his way out.

[onejayhawk]

I don't think there's as much "coastal" bias as there used to be. As Controller Jacobs pointed out, it didn't seem to work against Barry Larkin or Kirby Puckett, both, like Helton, one-team players who were big with their local communities. I don't have any data, but I don't recall too many HOF-marginal Yankee-Red Sox-Dodger types getting in lately over better players who played here in the "flyovers".

Certain players gain a reputation as being the line between good and bad, even when it is not deserved. Likeabilty is an issue. In Larkin's case, he was always playing hurt. For the rockies it is the ballpark that garnered the mythos. Look at Whitaker and Trammel. Fairly even in statistical measures. Big difference in perception. In a borderline case, which this is, it can make the difference.

J

[onejayhawk]

I agree. I think if you're just looking at his stats, he's not going to stack up to a ton of past HOF players. But I'll take him over Bill Mazeroski any day of the week and twice on Sundays. The guy's a gamer, plays through pain and fought through a cranky back to stay in the game these past 5-6 years. His useful longevity should count for something. And he's the face of that franchise, absolutely. I'm pulling for him to get in, but I understand the argument against (in regards to position, not the Coors effect).

Dont argue that there are mistakes in the HoF. There are. Better than the worst player inducted is not a high enough standard.

J

[joncarlos]

I don't know... something like this? Without worrying too much about the order I think this is reasonable and it's likely he's a 3rd tier guy. If so, then those are all guys who probably belong in the Hall. If you think he's tier 4 then probably not. If you put Keith Hernandez in Coors is he a hall of famer?

Gehrig
Foxx
----
Bagwell
Mize
Mccovey
Pujols
McGwire
Greenberg
Frank Thomas
----
Eddie Murray
Sisler
Helton
McGriff
Palmeiro
Cepeda
Thome
(Roger Connor, Cap Anson, Dan Brouthers)
----
Giambi
Dick Allen
Killebrew
Mattingly
Keith Hernandez
Bill Terry

[onejayhawk]

Eddie Murray
Sisler
Helton
McGriff
Palmeiro
Cepeda
Thome

If that is his tier, then I would say he needs extra values, like Murray's defense. Sisler is a different era, but the next group are all outside looking in. Cepeda was an iffy choice. Any of these guys would be.

J

[Long John]

Eddie Murray was a .287 hitter with more than 3200 hits. Great hitter who's extended career longevity helped get him in.
Helton only has 2500 hits, but his career OBP is .414! He's finishing his career with better OBPs than Rickey Henderson, Joe DiMaggio, Hank Greenberg and Jackie Robinson.
And with a .954 OPS, he'll finish ahead of Bagwell, Ty Cobb, Shoeless Joe and Hack Wilson.

So if he was in the AL and got to DH for half his career like Edgar Martinez, would we be having this discussion?
He's in.

[Cobain's Ghost]

If that is his tier, then I would say he needs extra values, like Murray's defense.

J

like 1b fielding percentage? helton .996 (79 in 20,673 chances), murray .993 (167 in 23,287)

like total zone + total fielding above average? helton 107, murray 61

what makes you think that murray was a better defender than helton?

[TS Garp]

No way. Amazing career but not HOF. His highest MVP finish was 5th and he was only in the Top 10 three times. MVP voters are far from perfect but it's somewhat telling. If we're looking at Colorado guys, Larry Walker is far more deserving -- fantastic outfielder, more diverse game (he could run), and has an MVP -- and he likely (and sadly) won't sniff the HOF.

[onejayhawk]

like 1b fielding percentage? helton .996 (79 in 20,673 chances), murray .993 (167 in 23,287)

like total zone + total fielding above average? helton 107, murray 61

what makes you think that murray was a better defender than helton?

That was actually a little irony, because I thought Murray was an overrated defender. He was good, but not Keith Hernandez. That said, he beats Helton 6 GG to 3.

J

[TS Garp]

Also, can you really say that Helton stands out from Mattingly or Will Clark, all things considered? I think he's a clear-cut no.

[chancellor]

I don't know... something like this? Without worrying too much about the order I think this is reasonable and it's likely he's a 3rd tier guy. If so, then those are all guys who probably belong in the Hall. If you think he's tier 4 then probably not. If you put Keith Hernandez in Coors is he a hall of famer?

Gehrig
Foxx
----
Bagwell
Mize
Mccovey
Pujols
McGwire
Greenberg
Frank Thomas
----
Eddie Murray
Sisler
Helton
McGriff
Palmeiro
Cepeda
Thome
(Roger Connor, Cap Anson, Dan Brouthers)
----
Giambi
Dick Allen
Killebrew
Mattingly
Keith Hernandez
Bill Terry

Todd Helton isn't worthy of carrying Dick Allen's jock, much less get elected to the HOF ahead of him. Todd Helton's best OPS? 165. Dick Allen has four seasons well above that, one equal to it, and one just a point below it - and he still led the league in OPS that year. Dick Allen led the league in OPS four times. Helton did once. Helton never won the MVP, and never even remotely came close to deserving it. Dick Allen won it once, and arguably, deserved a second.

[Judge Jude]

also it is more difficult to clear a 150 OPS+ when you play in a strong hitting environment vs a weak one, iirc

plus the AL in Allen's MVP year was awful, iirc - ironically, the last remnants of a racist league where virtually all of the best African-Americans were in the NL for 20+ years. Yankees and Red Sox had NO such players of any quality at all until 8 to 12 years after Jackie.

there's a great big world beyond in-league OPS

[joncarlos]

OK, Allen was probably a lot better than I gave him credit for, and Will Clark probably belongs in the 4th tier with Donnie Baseball. Apparently I can't rank players with zero research any more

The article that ElD posted was a pretty good breakdown. I wouldn't mind if Helton got in, just because it would mean that sportswriters were getting more realistic about Coors, but I won't be banging down the door if they don't let him in either. (Unlike Jeff Bagwell... I mean, seriously.)