is todd helton a hall of famer?

[Cobain's Ghost]

todd the god is hanging it up after this season.

the case - career stats as of 9/19, through 17 seasons (with all-time rankings):

games - 2238
pa - 9413
hits - 2507
bb - 1333 (35th)
2b - 587 (16th)
hr - 367 (75th)
total bases - 4269 (59th)
rbi - 1397 (74th)
ba - .316 (69th)
obp - .414 (26th)
slg - .539 (36th)
ops - 953 (20th)

all-star appearances - 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004

gold gloves - 2000, 2001, 2004

nl batting titles - 2000 (.372)

silver sluggers (1b) - 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003

comparable players - edgar martinez, jeff bagwell, larry walker, orlando cepeda, johnny mize, vladimir guerrero, will clark, albert pujols*, andres galarraga, john olerud

post-season performance - very unremarkable stats in a very small sample

other - injured a lot

so...

is this enough to get him in?

no coors field bias, now.

[Cobain's Ghost]

peak years were pretty ridiculous (ba, hr, rbi, opb, slg, ops) -

1999 - .320, 35, 113, .395, .587, .981
2000 - .372, 42, 147, .463, .698, 1.162
2001 - .336, 49, 146, .432, .685, 1.116
2002 - .329, 30, 109, .429, .577, 1.006
2003 - .358, 33, 117, .458, .630, 1.088
2004 - .347, 32, 96, .469, .620, 1.088

[revo]

Your comp says it all -- none of those players are in the Hall. Plus, there's this:

Home: .345/.441/.606, 225 HRs
Away: .287/.386/.470, 142 HRs

Away from Coors, he's a decent player, but no Hall of Famer. He's a product of Coors.

[Cobain's Ghost]

Your comp says it all -- none of those players are in the Hall. Plus, there's this:

Home: .345/.441/.606, 225 HRs
Away: .287/.386/.470, 142 HRs

Away from Coors, he's a decent player, but no Hall of Famer. He's a product of Coors.

nobody slags wade boggs for being a product of his little bandbox ball field :grumblegrumble:

home: .354, .443, .491, 362 2b
away: .302, .387, .395, 216 2b

[Don Quixote]

Your comp says it all -- none of those players are in the Hall. Plus, there's this:

Home: .345/.441/.606, 225 HRs
Away: .287/.386/.470, 142 HRs

Away from Coors, he's a decent player, but no Hall of Famer. He's a product of Coors.

Cepeda and Mize are in the Hall. Pujols is still active. Guerrero is retired but not yet eligible for the Hall.

As for Helton--Those who don't want him in will cite the Coors effect. Those who want him in will claim he's worthy regardless. The truth, as usual, lies in between.

[heyelander]

As for Helton--Those who don't want him in will cite the Coors effect. Those who want him in will claim he's worthy regardless. The truth, as usual, lies in between.

Sage... Want to go out on a limb and say which side of the line you think he's on?

[revo]

Cepeda and Mize are in the Hall. Pujols is still active. Guerrero is retired but not yet eligible for the Hall.

As for Helton--Those who don't want him in will cite the Coors effect. Those who want him in will claim he's worthy regardless. The truth, as usual, lies in between.

That's true, I forgot about Cepeda and missed his inclusion of Mize there.

[Judge Jude]

Your comp says it all -- none of those players are in the Hall. Plus, there's this:

Home: .345/.441/.606, 225 HRs
Away: .287/.386/.470, 142 HRs

Away from Coors, he's a decent player, but no Hall of Famer. He's a product of Coors.

modern guys with a career OPS of .855 to .860 (note that Helton's AWAY is .856):
Napoli .860
Derrek Lee .859
Cano .859
Bernie Williams .858
Boggs .858
Brett .857
Choo .855
Reggie Smith .855
Rolen .855
Beltran .855

of course, a lot of these guys got to play games in Denver, unlike Helton who is only getting his away games counted here

give him 20 consolation pts to get him to .875, and you have WClark, Justice, Sosa, H-Ram, Tulo, Hafner, Burks, Mauer, McCutchen, Magglio, Klesko, AdGonz, Longoria in his range

funny that backers AND detractors can build their case from those names

[Pogues]

With the steroid era blocking so many who would otherwise be considered above Helton, he's got a chance. It will take him awhile, at least 10 years of voting, but he's got a reasonable chance. I'd vote for him with a weaker field on the card.

[Don Quixote]

Sage... Want to go out on a limb and say which side of the line you think he's on?

I voted "yes", but it's not a no-brainer. When he's eligible, I won't be surprised either way.

[joncarlos]

Your comp says it all -- none of those players are in the Hall. Plus, there's this:

Home: .345/.441/.606, 225 HRs
Away: .287/.386/.470, 142 HRs

Away from Coors, he's a decent player, but no Hall of Famer. He's a product of Coors.

What's a reasonable home park split? Most players do hit better at home. Even if their home isn't Coors. Will Clark had an .855 OPS on the road and a .905 OPS at home. Vlad Guerrero was .912 and .950. Add 10% to Helton's numbers and you get:

Home: 316/425/517 156 HRs 298 doubles
Road: 287/386/470 142 HRs 271 doubles
Total: 302/406/494 298 HRs 569 doubles

Both FanGraphs and BaseballReference have him as a negative fielder despite the gold gloves. So for me it looks like a no. Definitely not until some of the other players ahead of him get cleared out.

I'd definitely take Bagwell over him. Pujols too, even though he may not add much more value to his current totals. And also McGwire. Not sure about Palmeiro or McGriff.

How about this one... using Helton's adjusted numbers above.

player A 9433pa 302/406/494 298 HRs 569 2b
player B 8674pa 312/418/515 309hr 514 2b

[dannahann]

Nowhere close to a black and white yes (or no). By that definition he really shouldn't be but I selected yes because I think somehow he will be voted in. These writers are going to find it harder and harder to come up with players who had a dominant period of play from this era that aren't stained by PED allegations and presumptions and (IMO) he'll get in eventually, despite probably not being completely HOF worthy.

[onejayhawk]

I put him on the edge, but vote no. He's a 1B with less than 400 HR. He has the huge home/road splits.

When it comes to the voting, his biggest problem is that he plays in flyover country.

J

[Controller Jacobs]

...When it comes to the voting, his biggest problem is that he plays in flyover country.

J

I don't think this is true, it certainly wasn't for Larkin or Puckett. I think Helton has a big advantage over Larry Walker, because like Larkin and Puckett, Helton has played his entire career for one team. So Colorado ownership and fans will be pushing hard for him, and others will see him as the face of the Colorado franchise for much of his career (he was their WAR leader from 2000-2005).

I personally think he's borderline, but I strongly believe he'll go in.

[Don Quixote]

I put him on the edge, but vote no. He's a 1B with less than 400 HR. He has the huge home/road splits.

When it comes to the voting, his biggest problem is that he plays in flyover country.

J

I don't think there's as much "coastal" bias as there used to be. As Controller Jacobs pointed out, it didn't seem to work against Barry Larkin or Kirby Puckett, both, like Helton, one-team players who were big with their local communities. I don't have any data, but I don't recall too many HOF-marginal Yankee-Red Sox-Dodger types getting in lately over better players who played here in the "flyovers".