2024 SeaDogStat Memorial League Commentary

[heyelander]

Excited to get Betts to play second with my first round pick... second round comes around , my queue empties right before my pick, and my top 3 favorites left are all 2nd basemen.

[madducks]

Wasn’t planning to go SP but couldn’t pass on Burnes

Hearing about his 1-2 mph velocity drop last season made me a little skittish on him. But, he's with a better team now, so maybe it won't matter.

[madducks]

Excited to get Betts to play second with my first round pick... second round comes around , my queue empties right before my pick, and my top 3 favorites left are all 2nd basemen.

2B or not 2B. That is the question.

[Big Tymer]

Hearing about his 1-2 mph velocity drop last season made me a little skittish on him. But, he's with a better team now, so maybe it won't matter.

Fair. Camden Yards and the Orioles lineup are big upgrades. Changing leagues but that can go either way as batters haven’t seen him much. Death, taxes and pitchers get hurt though…

[Todd Zola]

Fair. Camden Yards and the Orioles lineup are big upgrades. Changing leagues but that can go either way as batters haven’t seen him much. Death, taxes and pitchers get hurt though…

Research I did for Rotowire showed Orioles pitchers faced slightly less productive hitters than Brewers pitchers last season.

The research also showed the year-to-year numbers aren't that sticky, so the same can't necessarily be said this season.

The driving force is currently, aggregate hitting is better in the NL (or maybe AL pitching is worse). The problem with this sort of study is the teams faced are not the same. This is extreme, but if the best pitchers faced the best hitters and the worst pitchers faced the worst hitters, the aggregate best pitchers ERA and the aggregate worst pitchers ERA would be close (same for hitter wOBA).

[The Feral Slasher]

Revo and I have similar teams so far...lots of speed with the first pick, both got 2b in round 2, and both got young 3B in round 3. De La Cruz was maybe a reach, but I figured I would take some risks if I hope to finish well.

[The Feral Slasher]

Kinda quiet in here.... I thought Acuna was a solid pick

[heyelander]

Kinda quiet in here.... I thought Acuna was a solid pick

was hoping to grab him in the 3rd round.

[heyelander]

we are in the 6th round and I fucking hate my team

[ThatRogue]

So…is Snell a #3SP with #1SP upside, or a #1SP with #3SP downside risk?

[ThatRogue]

we are in the 6th round and I fucking hate my team

Starting with Ohtani at 1.13 and continuing throughout the draft thus far, this is not the team I would have imagined selecting for myself. I’m trying to take high-end production that falls to me, balanced against planning for what players are most likely to be already taken when my next pick comes around (at least during my even-round picks). Unfortunately, my team has a ton of injury risk, so managing this squad won’t be for the faint of heart.

[Moonlight J]

So…is Snell a #3SP with #1SP upside, or a #1SP with #3SP downside risk?

Yes?

The fact Snell has never strung together consecutive big season is always a concern. He's boom or bust; when he pitched 140+ innings, he wins hardware.

2024 Snell = 2022 Robbie Ray is the message I've been drumming all winter. The correlations are too similar.

[Todd Zola]

I've talked about Snell with Nick Pollack a couple of times. Nick's research shows that Snell consistently pitched in areas which generate weak contact, so the low BABIP wasn't all luck.

The narrative is Snell pitched around better hitters, knowing he could retire the weaker hitters.

I can't dispute the fact Snell generated a lot of deserved weak contact. The numbers corroborate it.

Given Snell's track record with respect to control, I question his ability to keep the ball in those "low contact" areas. The problem is he did it too long to be dumb luck.

It is also curious that no one expects him to do it again. Doesn't this point towards it not being a skill?

Nick's explanation is Snell got into an extended groove, one which he may not be able to recapture after the offseason.

This seems a bit sketchy to me, but I have never pitched, other than Boston College Grad School Slow Pitch League. Nick pitched (quite successfully) through the collegiate level, so I accept his reasoning..

[ThatRogue]

Yes?

The fact Snell has never strung together consecutive big season is always a concern. He's boom or bust; when he pitched 140+ innings, he wins hardware.

2024 Snell = 2022 Robbie Ray is the message I've been drumming all winter. The correlations are too similar.

Interesting comp. Better velocity, higher Ks, worse control. Robbie Ray 2022 wasn't a bad pick as an SP3, but wasn't close to the ace he was in 2021. Which is kind of like...Blake Snell 2022, which the Forecaster said should be the baseline for Snell bids in 2024. I was a bit surprised that he was available with the 78th pick, as I didn't intend to draft him beforehand...but that's probably the right spot relative to his risk-adjusted value.

I've talked about Snell with Nick Pollack a couple of times. Nick's research shows that Snell consistently pitched in areas which generate weak contact, so the low BABIP wasn't all luck.

The narrative is Snell pitched around better hitters, knowing he could retire the weaker hitters.

I can't dispute the fact Snell generated a lot of deserved weak contact. The numbers corroborate it.

Given Snell's track record with respect to control, I question his ability to keep the ball in those "low contact" areas. The problem is he did it too long to be dumb luck.

It is also curious that no one expects him to do it again. Doesn't this point towards it not being a skill?

Nick's explanation is Snell got into an extended groove, one which he may not be able to recapture after the offseason.

This seems a bit sketchy to me, but I have never pitched, other than Boston College Grad School Slow Pitch League. Nick pitched (quite successfully) through the collegiate level, so I accept his reasoning..

He was in a groove, but one that occurred at multiple times during the season. His first 9 starts were ugly, and he had a 5.40 ERA after that May 19th outing against Boston. In his next 7 starts he pitched 42 innings, giving up 4 earned runs on 20 hits and 15 walks, while collecting 66 strikeouts. He had two similar stretches (5 games from July 8-30 and 6 games from August 28th - September 25th), and that final season-ending stretch covered 38IP with 2ER in one game and 5 scoreless outings in the others. During that time he gave up 15 hits, 19 walks and collected 50 strikeouts.

So does that make him a streaky pitcher capable of finding a next-level way to avoid contact that few in the game can rival? Or was it truly a once-in-a-lifetime (or is that twice if you count 2018) groove that's just not repeatable? As an MLB team owner I don't know if I'd pay the cost to find out, nor would I want to pay the probable high cost in an auction league. But as a 3rd SP taken in the 6th round of a 15 team league, he will be a lot more fun to watch.

[madducks]

Snell also got off to a terrible start in 2022. I just figured that his off-season conditioning (physical and mental) needed improvement.

Maybe teams are waiting until June to try to sign him lol.