2K15: Paul Goldschmidt

[onejayhawk]

Pre-surgery I would put Cory Hart plus Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Adam LaRoche, Garrett Jones, Allen Craig, and AGon ahead of Rizzo.

Ike Davis you can add to Laroche and Freeman and make your argument.

Garrett Jones? Seriously?

J

[DJBeasties]

Ike Davis you can add to Laroche and Freeman and make your argument.

Garrett Jones? Seriously?

J

Sure. I bet they are both $15 players. One with upside, the other with a better track record and consistency. For a redraft, I'd take Jones for a better bet.

[onejayhawk]

Sure. I bet they are both $15 players. One with upside, the other with a better track record and consistency. For a redraft, I'd take Jones for a better bet.

If you put Garrett Jones at $15 that makes a shred of sense. I dont. $15 is an Ike Davis kind of price, and Davis is far better than Garrett Jones.

I would put Rizzo north of $20. In redraft, I would put Rizzo 100 picks higher than Jones.

J

[cavebird]

Random thought on Freeman vs. Rizzo: despite the disparity in experience, Freeman is a month and a half younger.

[onejayhawk]

Random thought on Freeman vs. Rizzo: despite the disparity in experience, Freeman is a month and a half younger.

34 days to be exact. Goldschmidt falls between them.

J

[DJBeasties]

I hope Rizzo breaks out this year. I have him nice and cheap and it would be good but I still think we are a year away so it's a little more even for me. I have Freeman too so I hope they turn into anchors but who knows.

[dannahann]

Really. Playing full time in Wrigley, I think he makes a pretty obvious argument.

After Votto and Goldschmidt. Posey is a C,Craig is an OF, Howard pancaked. LaRoche and Freeman you can argue. AGonz is the one I forgot.

So, excepting Adrian Gonzalez only, I think it is a defensible statement. It mostly depends on your opinion of LaRoche and Freeman. Even AG is no slam dunk this year.

J

And there are leagues where A-Gonz will qualify in the OF too.

[onejayhawk]

Here are the Bill James numbers for Goldschmidt, Rizzo and Freeman.

Goldschmidt 650 PA, .283/.375/.501, 27 HR, 15 SB
Rizzo 659 PA, .283/.346/.517, 33 HR, 7 SB
Freeman 613 PA, .282/.358/.481, 24 HR, 3 SB

That is the order I would take them. Goldschmidt and Rizzo have favorable parks. Freeman's works against him. In terms of team stats, the Cubs are not that bad, and they play home games with ivy. Is 30+ bombs optimistic? Yes, I think it is. But more of what he did last season, is .285/.342/.463, 28 HR. Rizzo should finish first among these 3 in HR and ISO.

LaRoche and Ike Davis are a notch back. Garrett Jones ranks from two tiers back, to endgame fodder, depending on who is talking

J

[BigJonEmpire]

Here are the Bill James numbers for Goldschmidt, Rizzo and Freeman.

Goldschmidt 650 PA, .283/.375/.501, 27 HR, 15 SB
Rizzo 659 PA, .283/.346/.517, 33 HR, 7 SB
Freeman 613 PA, .282/.358/.481, 24 HR, 3 SB

That is the order I would take them. Goldschmidt and Rizzo have favorable parks. Freeman's works against him. In terms of team stats, the Cubs are not that bad, and they play home games with ivy. Is 30+ bombs optimistic? Yes, I think it is. But more of what he did last season, is .285/.342/.463, 28 HR. Rizzo should finish first among these 3 in HR and ISO.

LaRoche and Ike Davis are a notch back. Garrett Jones ranks from two tiers back, to endgame fodder, depending on who is talking

J

Well, last season Jones was - .274/.321/.516 with 27 homeruns and 2 stolen bases in just 475 at-bats. So I think he belongs right there with the other three.

[onejayhawk]

Well, last season Jones was - .274/.321/.516 with 27 homeruns and 2 stolen bases in just 475 at-bats. So I think he belongs right there with the other three.

But that was a career season for someone on the wrong side of 30. I would not pay for more of the same.

Goldschmidt, Rizzo and Freeman are all 23 years old and coming into their own. We might disagree with which is going to take the big step forward, but I doubt anyone here will argue that one of those three will take a quantum leap in the next season or two. In the mean time, more of the same is the downside not the upside.

J

[DJBeasties]

Upside does not translate into two-tiers higher for me. I'd take Goldschmidt and Freeman over Rizzo every day. I don't put them in the same boat. I think Rizzo will be good, I'm just not treating him better than a $15 right now.

I understand the greater point on upside for all three of those guys. But going back to how 1B in the NL is ranked or tiered as of Jan 22, 2013; I think Rizzo and Garrett Jones are pretty similar. Garrett Jones has averaged $14 per year over the last four seasons. Maybe he doesn't give you a $20 year like he did in '12 but I am having trouble seeing what makes Rizzo such a better bet for $20 other than Bill James' always-optimistic projections. Their profiles are pretty equal when you get down to it.

[pjs24]

Rizzo had a .208 AVG and 599 OPS against lefties last year. I see a lot of Hosmering with him here in this thread. Simply extrapolating his 2012 is extremely dangerous as players in that age range don't experience linear growth.

[pjs24]

I see more of a .260-18-78 season whereas the Bill James/FG Fan proj are his high end "100% projection" in PECOTA terms.

[Hornsby]

I guess that I'm not really jumping on the Goldschmidt bandwagon quite yet. 20 HR's in a full season for a 1st baseman doesn't do a whole lot for me, the steals are nice, but how long is a guy that size going to keep that up? I think that he'll be a really nice player, but not an all-star level kind of guy...IMO, he's being drafted too high.

[NL Only]

I think Goldschmidt has more power than he showed last year...with his home park, I think he is more likely for 30 HR than Rizzo this season...I like both players, but the combination of the Cubs lineup and Rizzo's line vs LHP (all factors already mentioned) make Rizzo a riskier pick than Goldschmidt, Craig & LaRoche and probably Freeman & Davis too.

I guess that I'm not really jumping on the Goldschmidt bandwagon quite yet. 20 HR's in a full season for a 1st baseman doesn't do a whole lot for me, the steals are nice, but how long is a guy that size going to keep that up? I think that he'll be a really nice player, but not an all-star level kind of guy...IMO, he's being drafted too high.