2K15: Paul Goldschmidt

[pjs24]

I guess that I'm not really jumping on the Goldschmidt bandwagon quite yet. 20 HR's in a full season for a 1st baseman doesn't do a whole lot for me, the steals are nice, but how long is a guy that size going to keep that up? I think that he'll be a really nice player, but not an all-star level kind of guy...IMO, he's being drafted too high.

Well he was still 14th among 1B in HRs when you remove those with a much better position eligibility (Cs, 3Bs). I even left in the OFs and you could make a case pretty easily that they're more valuable as OFs. At any rate, 14th is mighty useful considering 1B/CI/DH. No, it isn't leading the category, but his 18 SBs lap the field and MORE than make up for the HR deficiency. There isn't any real indication that he wouldn't continue to run. The encouraging part is that he got those SBs despite the D'Backs not being a huge running team. I'm more heartened by him being among the select few to run as opposed to a free-for-all that he happened to take advantage of with Gibby.

He was 18-for-21 which is fantastic and he's clearly not a slow, lumbering 1B-type, so I'm not sure his size is going to preclude the SBs from continuing. Hosmer has run a lot in both of his seasons at that same size. Belt's a pretty big dude (definitely tall at 6'5) and put up a 12-for-14. Nobody confuses Chase Utley for Juan Pierre speed-wise, but he's a brilliant base stealer. There is skill involved, not just pure speed (which I know you know, I'm just stating--not suggesting I'm breaking ground). Plus, we're dealing with world class athletes here. Even the big dudes are fast, kinda like we've seen in all of football.

Meanwhile, it should be noted that he skipped AAA entirely and has more than held his own at the big league level showing solid improvements from his cup of coffee to his first full season (namely chopping the K rate 8% from 30-to-22%). The dude can rake, so I think we could see 30 bombs in 2013. Even giving back 44% of his steals down to 10 still brings tons of value. If he pairs that with another .286 and 30 bombs plus the requisite R and RBI that would come with such an improvement... look out!

[Hornsby]

Well he was still 14th among 1B in HRs when you remove those with a much better position eligibility (Cs, 3Bs). I even left in the OFs and you could make a case pretty easily that they're more valuable as OFs. At any rate, 14th is mighty useful considering 1B/CI/DH. No, it isn't leading the category, but his 18 SBs lap the field and MORE than make up for the HR deficiency. There isn't any real indication that he wouldn't continue to run. The encouraging part is that he got those SBs despite the D'Backs not being a huge running team. I'm more heartened by him being among the select few to run as opposed to a free-for-all that he happened to take advantage of with Gibby.

He was 18-for-21 which is fantastic and he's clearly not a slow, lumbering 1B-type, so I'm not sure his size is going to preclude the SBs from continuing. Hosmer has run a lot in both of his seasons at that same size. Belt's a pretty big dude (definitely tall at 6'5) and put up a 12-for-14. Nobody confuses Chase Utley for Juan Pierre speed-wise, but he's a brilliant base stealer. There is skill involved, not just pure speed (which I know you know, I'm just stating--not suggesting I'm breaking ground). Plus, we're dealing with world class athletes here. Even the big dudes are fast, kinda like we've seen in all of football.

Meanwhile, it should be noted that he skipped AAA entirely and has more than held his own at the big league level showing solid improvements from his cup of coffee to his first full season (namely chopping the K rate 8% from 30-to-22%). The dude can rake, so I think we could see 30 bombs in 2013. Even giving back 44% of his steals down to 10 still brings tons of value. If he pairs that with another .286 and 30 bombs plus the requisite R and RBI that would come with such an improvement... look out!

The thing that I don't like is the power splits that he showed...he had 7 HR's in June, other than that he went 1, 3, 4, 3, 2. Now that doesn't mean that he can't improve by one or two a month, but I'm just not seeing the same things that everyone else seems to see. To me, he seems more like middling guy, a more powerful, faster version of Mark Grace. Nothing to sneeze at, but I can think of a dozen 1st basemen I'd take ahead of him.

Anyway, good to have you back in here on a semi regular basis, your enthusiasm and expertise always makes for an interesting read...

[DMT]

The thing that I don't like is the power splits that he showed...he had 7 HR's in June, other than that he went 1, 3, 4, 3, 2. Now that doesn't mean that he can't improve by one or two a month, but I'm just not seeing the same things that everyone else seems to see. To me, he seems more like middling guy, a more powerful, faster version of Mark Grace. Nothing to sneeze at, but I can think of a dozen 1st basemen I'd take ahead of him.

Anyway, good to have you back in here on a semi regular basis, your enthusiasm and expertise always makes for an interesting read...

Ok, I even agree with you that he's being overrated (and I have him in one league) but I'd like to see this dozen.

[DJBeasties]

Ok, I even agree with you that he's being overrated (and I have him in one league) but I'd like to see this dozen.

Looking at the ADPs I was surprised he was already going so high. I have him for $10 in my local league and I'm excited for him but others are obviously banking on him.

[Hornsby]

Ok, I even agree with you that he's being overrated (and I have him in one league) but I'd like to see this dozen.

Pujols
Fielder
Tex
Butler
Napoli
Morneau
Ike Davis
Votto
A-Gone
Konerko

OK, not a dozen, but 10 that I'd take before Goldy in a redraft league.

[Hornsby]

You would take Napoli and Ike Davis over him? Yeah, no freakin' way.

In a redraft league? You bet...Davis essentially lost a third of the season last year with valley fever and ended up with 32 HR's and 90 RBI. Napoli, if given 500 AB's, should easily hit 30 HR's with the Green Monster just sitting there.

[DMT]

Pujols
Fielder
Tex
Butler
Napoli
Morneau
Ike Davis
Votto
A-Gone
Konerko

OK, not a dozen, but 10 that I'd take before Goldy in a redraft league.

I only see 3 on that list that are no-brainer picks ahead of him, Pujols, Votto, and Fielder. Maybe Gonzalez and Butler. I would definitely take him ahead of the other 5 on your list.

[Hornsby]

I only see 3 on that list that are no-brainer picks ahead of him, Pujols, Votto, and Fielder. Maybe Gonzalez and Butler. I would definitely take him ahead of the other 5 on your list.

Different strokes...you'd take him over Tex?

[Hornsby]

He lost a third of the season and ended up playing 156 games with nearly 600 PAs? That's some crazy voodoo right there! Davis played in more games and had about the exact same number of PAs as Goldschmidt.

Davis did, though, strike out more, hit for about 60 points lower batting average, stole zero bases, had a lower slugging percentage, and had an OBP 51 points lower than Goldschmidt. So I guess his 12 HR difference means an awful, awful, awful lot....or something.

LOL...yeah, playing with Valley fever would take anything off of your stats at all...

[onejayhawk]

Different strokes...you'd take him over Tex?

I can honestly say any projection or ranking system that has Goldy behind Teix is one I'm not interested in using. The speed alone makes em no worse than equal and that'd take regression from Goldy which I personally don't see coming.

Just sayin.

J

[pjs24]

Different strokes...you'd take him over Tex?

Definitely for me. Tex's batting average is done. The shift has eaten it. So even if he hits more HRs than Goldy (far from a certainty), the AVG and SB gains make Goldy an easy choice for me.

[pjs24]

The thing that I don't like is the power splits that he showed...he had 7 HR's in June, other than that he went 1, 3, 4, 3, 2. Now that doesn't mean that he can't improve by one or two a month, but I'm just not seeing the same things that everyone else seems to see. To me, he seems more like middling guy, a more powerful, faster version of Mark Grace. Nothing to sneeze at, but I can think of a dozen 1st basemen I'd take ahead of him.

Anyway, good to have you back in here on a semi regular basis, your enthusiasm and expertise always makes for an interesting read...

This is one you're not going to be sold on and I get that. It's a personal preference thing which is fine, because the evidence leans strongly toward Goldy. I'm hitching my wagon to this dude's star, though. Amazing first name, even better talent!

Thanks, I appreciate it!

[Hornsby]

http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/stor...-microfracture






Yeah, sounds like he was on his deathbed.


Whatever, he could have had leukemia. He still ain't shit compared to Goldschmidt.




Edit: It feels like Hornsby is "OneJaying" in this thread. Make wild assertion - get wild assertion shot down - end around with another wild assertion - repeat ad nauseum. Playing 156 games is "missing one third of the season" for Hornsby as playing in 87 games is "pretty much a full season" for 1J.

Reading comprehension Chris, it's a wonderful thing. Essentially missing a third of the season, which is what I said, isn't the same as saying he didn't play for a 3rd of the season. Being weak from the illness, which caused him to actually miss most of ST, accounts for him being virtually unprepared for the most part of two months. Once Davis actually got his feet back under him, they were remarkable similar, other than the bags. Not exactly a "wild assertion".

2nd half stats:

Goldschmidt: .271/.351/.431...18 doubles, 8 HR's, 40 RBI, and 46 runs.

Davis: .255/.346/542...12 doubles, 20 HR's, 41 RBI, and 36 runs.

Frankly, I'll take Davis' slash line, and his potential to hit 35+ hr's over Goldy's steals, JMO.

Oh yeah, this is what the Mayo clinic has to say about Valley Fever:

Valley fever is the initial form of coccidioidomycosis infection. This initial, acute illness can develop into more serious disease, including chronic and disseminated coccidioidomycosis.

Acute coccidioidomycosis (valley fever)
The initial, or acute, form of coccidioidomycosis is often mild, with few, if any, symptoms. When signs and symptoms do occur, they appear one to three weeks after exposure. They tend to resemble those of the flu, and can range from minor to severe:

Fever
Cough
Chest pain — varying from a mild feeling of constriction to intense pressure resembling a heart attack
Chills
Night sweats
Headache
Fatigue
Joint aches
Red, spotty rash
The rash that sometimes accompanies valley fever is made up of painful red bumps that may later turn brown. The rash mainly appears on your lower legs, but sometimes on your chest, arms and back. Others may have a raised red rash with blisters or eruptions that look like pimples.

If you don't become ill from valley fever, you may learn that you've been infected only when you later have a positive skin or blood test or when small areas of residual infection (nodules) in the lungs show up on a routine chest X-ray. Although the nodules typically don't cause problems, they can look like cancer on X-ray.

If you do develop symptoms, especially severe ones, the course of the disease is highly variable. It can take months to fully recover, and fatigue and joint aches can last even longer. The severity of the disease depends on several factors, including your overall health and the number of fungus spores you inhale.

And did you ever hear of an athlete who said that he wasn't 100% ready to play?

[revo]

I can understand many on Hornsby's list, but Morneau and even Konerko now is kinda nuts.

[Hornsby]

Davis never experienced symptoms just like two thirds of the folks that get the illness, as was already noted in this thread. And lol anyway.....this isn't even a real argument, imo. I'd say the percentage of people who'd take Davis over Goldschmidt would be something close to 1% --- Hornsby and a bunch of other senile old guys.

And yet he missed almost a full month of spring training with a "mystery" illness...anyway, lets put a little avatar bet or something else on Goldy v Ike...let's figure out the parameters, and keep 'em simple, will ya? Not a whole lot of room left in my old noggin...gotta be careful about what I toss out to learn something new.