Closer Watch: 2011

[ThatRogue]

The available closer prices in my keeper NL 12-team 5x5 auction this year:

Broxton 35
BWilson 33-DL
FCordero 25
K-Rod 25 (with a contract controversy)
Lidge 10-DL half-season

No thanks. I'll tough it out and then pick up some SV midseason from the teams who can't contend - in part because they waste so much money on closers...

In our league, closers went as follows:

Broxton $25 - 3rd overall player thrown out for bid; injury concerns
Marmol $29 - 18th overall
Contreras $8 - 34th overall - my purchase
Heath Bell $33 - 41st overall
JJ Putz $28 - 58th overall - this is the closer I had targeted pre-auction, with a price goal of $16 - $18
Sean Burnett $9 - 59th overall - my purchase, the guy who has a $12 Storen wanted him too.

Many of the key setup men/MRs were kept this year (Romo, Motte, Saito, Jansen, Kuo, Clippard, Madson, Adams, Gregerson) which made end-game prospecting tougher. Kerry Wood went for $5, David Hernandez for $2, Webb, Parnell and Belisle for $1, and I bought Hensley for $4.

If things work out reasonably, for my $21 combined purchase, I'll get 15 saves from Contreras, 10 - 15 from Burnett and 5 from Hensley...along with 160 Ks and 180 innings of good ratios. It was risky...but no more so than spending $25+ on a single closer with injury/performance risk.

[joncarlos]

Ive got both Storen and Burnett and for now I'm starting both

[primetime]

Someone already had motte in my league and the owner of Franklin bid 13 on Boggs. I squeaked in and got Batista and Sanchez for 1 each.

[Hammer]

Crazy FAAB number from my NL only last night on Boggs. $23 just on spec. Nice!!!!

I bid 11

[schlesinj]

Crazy FAAB number from my NL only last night on Boggs. $23 just on spec. Nice!!!!

I bid 11

Last Sunday Boggs went for $13 and this Sunday the rest of the pen went Miller $4, Bautista $5, Sanchez $3 and Salas $3.

[Bodhizefa]

I think it's been mentioned a few times in this thread that Boggs has a big split differential, but I'm not sure if it's been said that Motte also has a pretty big split against lefties (he's good against righties). I don't know how it ends up, but it's too bad LaRussa is managing. Eduardo Sanchez may have earned a shot sometime this year if he just keeps being awesome. But with LaRussa managing, he's going to have to wait 15 years until he's in his mid-to-late 30's and is washed up.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Just in case anyone actually wants to know what really happened in the game....

- Broxton strikes Rasmus out.
- Pujols lines out.
- Holliday is behind on a pitch but hits it down the line for a double.
- Intentional BB to one of the hottest hitters in the game (Berkman) who is also a lefty.
- Freese hits a very weak bloop just past Aaron Miles into RF (he was also behind on the pitch).
- Yadier Molina hits almost the exact same weak bloop as Freese but Miles catches this one.

As noted on the great Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness blog:

I watched him pitch against the Padres-0- he's nowhere near the Broxton of old. I'd wager Jansen or Kuo are closing by the break if not sooner.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Yes, you think he sucks. I believe you already posted that.

I guess the end of last season and the beginning of this season are an aberration? He's your version of the Padres Ludwick. he sucks too.

I watched Brox struggle to get both saves against the worst offense in the league. But if you say he's fine-- I'll guess I'll take your word for it

(I'll still keep Kuo in all my leagues)

[GwynnInTheHall]

He's struggling. I know that.

However, your post implied that since Broxton was in line for the loss against the formidable Cardinals bullpen that it should be inferred that he "still sucks". I posted why I thought that was poor reasoning, although as is the norm, you failed to support your assertion with anything resembling facts.

He actually pitched pretty well last night. Anyone who saw the game, I'd imagine, would take it as encouraging rather than saying he "still sucks". He's pitched all of 6 innings this year. His velocity is still down (for him) and I'm concerned, but I thought it might be more helpful to Broxton owners to elaborate on what happened rather than posting three (potentially inaccurate or misleading) words.

Yes I routinely post things without factual support

I've been down on Broxton since last season when his trouble began.

I don;t think he's going to regain his dominant form, should I now insert his first half/second half splits from last year? Link articles about his loss in velocity? Quote Shandler on his decline in the second half?


Forgive me for assuming everyone here knew what I meant without having to explain it to them.

And it's not because he's a Dodger, it's because I think he's not the best arm in that pen anymore, will blow save ops and ruin ratios and thus as a closer option: Sucks.

[Fresno Bob]

in other news, sun comes up, Kuo gets hurt....

[Don Quixote]

in other news, sun comes up, Kuo gets hurt....

Being Kuo and being on one of my rosters virtually guaranteed injury.

Changing gears here--I had a possible bout of stupidity this weekend and spent $5 of FAAB on Batista. Given my success at picking potential replacement closers the last couple of years (almost zero), I wouldn't bet on him getting the job if LaRussa finally decides to make a move.

[Bodhizefa]

Broxton is just firing 4 seam fastball after 4 seam fastball out there. He's operating at 92-94....about 7 mph slower than his prime. WTF?

With Kuo on the DL, who the heck do the Dodgers even go to at this point in the 9th? Jansen has the stuff, but he's still figuring things out and it would seemingly be a bad time to try to put big pressure on him. Who else is even remotely qualified?

[GwynnInTheHall]

Broxton is just firing 4 seam fastball after 4 seam fastball out there. He's operating at 92-94....about 7 mph slower than his prime. WTF?

he doesn't even look comfortable out there-- when I see him pitch it's like he's waiting to fail, whereas in the past he's been like "F you! try and hit this!"

I think when Kuo gets back LA will have to make the switch if they want to capitalize on that brilliant starting pitching.

[hombre]

he doesn't even look comfortable out there-- when I see him pitch it's like he's waiting to fail, whereas in the past he's been like "F you! try and hit this!"

I think when Kuo gets back LA will have to make the switch if they want to capitalize on that brilliant starting pitching.

As a Dodger fan it kills me to say this, but I think GITH is right on the money here.

From the readings on the gun to the negative body language that GITH points out- Broxton just doesn't look the same to me. If I owned him (I don't), I'd say wait until he strings together 2 or 3 saves, and sell. I know at this point you'll likely be selling at 70 cents on the dollar, but I'd take it and wouldn't look back.

[hombre]

And for what it's worth- if I was in a deep NL league (I'm not)- I'd be looking to pick up/trade for Matt Guerrier. He's been the best arm in that pen this year, and it's not close. 8 appearances, 8.2 IP, 0 runs, 4 hits (all singles), 5K 2BB. Jansen is just a kid, a big arm but not ready. Kuo is porcelain.

When he had all 4, Mattingly's preferred bridge to Broxton has been Jansen in 6th, Guerrier 7th, Kuo 8th. Tonight with Kuo out, Guerrier pitched a perfect 8th. If and when Broxton loses his job, Kuo gets first call if healthy, but that's certainly no given. Don't be too surprised if Guerrier notches 10-15 2nd half saves.