Judge Jude's 2011 keeper candidates

[Judge Jude]

Still mulling options. I rate as the 9th-best keeper list based on crunching the numbers, with 3-4 very strong teams.
But I have the farmhands - Taillon, Delgado, Lyles, Singleton, DGordon, Tate, etc - to flip some more for another huge stud if I have a really good auction.

One other idea - buy Utley, Greinke, JoSantana, Wainwright, Cueto, BWilson and anyone else who may or will open on the DL with 2012 pricing in mind.

Anyone ever do that?

[ThatRogue]

Geesh, is it March already?

I can keep up to 11 in this NL-only 12-team traditional 5x5 league.

Thoughts?

listing is player, my price, HQ 2010 value
players priced at or below 2010 value in CAPS

Player..................My price...2010
Halladay .................44.........35 - Keep
HANSON...................5*........19 - Keep, extend
JON SANCHEZ......... 10**......21 - Keep, do not extend
C RICHARD............... 8.........13 - Borderline...but the dearth of premium pitching may drive up mid-tier pricing. I'd keep and possibly flip
WOLF.................... 10.........11 - Trending wrong...I'd pass
LOWE.................... 13.........13 - Drop. Rookie 1B, Uggla at 2B, Chipper's another year older at 3B.
W Rodriguez.............26.........16 - Drop and redraft. I can't see him going more than $26
(and HOU SP Jordan Lyles at 5 if he makes the team, please don't yet!)

C C RUIZ.................. 2.......13 - Keep
1B Loney................ 19.......17 - Drop
1B-OF Nady............ 10.........6 - Drop
3B Ar Ramirez...........32.......15 - Drop
2B E Young Jr........... 5.........4 - Drop
SS Reyes............... 33........23 - Drop
SS S Drew............. 22........19 - Keep
OF Victorino........... 29........24 - Keep
OF A SORIANO........ 16........18 - Keep
OF-1B CLee............ 27........17 - Drop

* - (and out, or 10 in 2011 and 15 in 2012)
** - (and out, or 15 in 2011 and 20 in 2012)

- no RPs, that is correct
- lot of hitters who didn't turn earn their bucks in 2010, but...

I can't see keeping some of those mid-tier players at their current prices. Some of those guys make sense when you are just buying stats to support a strong freeze list. But, it would seem that a lesser freeze list requires taking more chances at the high and low end (as we all know, high end players give you trade chips if you are forced to rebuild, with the cheapies as nice keepers...and the cheap players who significantly outperform their prices give you important trade chips to support the high end guys if you are in contention).

The "injured buy" option is interesting. umjewboy and I have both talked about doing the next time we have a weak keeper list...and I honestly wish I had done it that past two seasons. While a good draft plus the natural luck/injury/over/underperform factor of the season can turn a seemingly weak keeper list into a playoff contender...the right draft in 2011 and trades can make things a lot easier for 2012.

(But, and I say this as a diehard Mets fan, stay away from Johan unless he is less than $10.)

[Gregg]

Your team isn't bad enough to go after all of them. Plus I doubt some of these are going to go for as deep a discount as you would need or want.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't grab one or two if the price is right. They make good trading chips for the gamblers that have expired contracts on their team.

[Judge Jude]

Would anyone give up a modest farm pick (which I may not be able to use anyway) for Ian Desmond 13 if I can get him? Other owner in numbers crunch.

Seems like a dice roll like that might be worth it for me, vs a AlSoriano 16 for instance...

[Gregg]

Would anyone give up a modest farm pick (which I may not be able to use anyway) for Ian Desmond 13 if I can get him? Other owner in numbers crunch.

Seems like a dice roll like that might be worth it for me, vs a AlSoriano 16 for instance...

Yes I would. This is the type of trade that I really like. You are not giving much up. Desmond at $13 is a buck or two undervalued without inflation. Add your inflation and you getting a solid pick for the money. At 25 Desmond has some room for growth.

[ThatRogue]

I agree with Gregg. In a 12 team NL-only league, I'd make that trade without blinking (assuming modest really is modest). He projects at close to value, but if he shows any growth, you'll have a tidy profit and a decent keeper/nice trade chip.

[ThatRogue]

PS: What's wrong with Soriano at $16? I'm no fan of his current skill set, but, at that price, he appears slightly undervalued.

[Judge Jude]

Well, Soriano is right at his projected, uninflated value. So yes, looks like a decent keep.
But if you're really rebuilding, you can come out ahead in the long run, perhaps, by allocating much of those 16 units toward adding another uber-stud + a cheap young OF who might break out.

That said, I may keep Soriano anyway. Helps my outside chance of competing this year, and can be moved later for some value anyway.

Halladay having a preposterous spring, 1 R allowed and just went 7.6 IP on Monday.
have until Wednesday, but looking like Halladay 44, Hanson 10, JSanchez 10, CRuiz 6, and maybe Victorino 29, AlSoriano 16. so 6 for 115. maybe.

EYoung 5 is an odd player. So much speed that he could be worth 5 even as a scrub for Rockies, but he might get sent down. He's playing the OF today as Rockies mull his place.
CRichard 8 had a terrible spring and I got no nibbles. Trying to add Desmond 13 for a weak farm pick.

[ThatRogue]

Ah...I see where you were going. I agree, if I were rebuilding, I'd consider tossing back Soriano to reallocate the use of those funds, but if you want to try to make a run, then it makes sense to keep him and trade him in-season.

(Can you trade him now for someone cheap that you project to have more value in 2012 than 2011?)

[Judge Jude]

How about I get Strasburg 5-S1 and I give up JSanchez 10-O?
Further sinks me in 2011, presumably, as I eat 5 worthless units and lose a profitable SP.

Strasburg would be 5-O in 2012 and then a FA, or 10-L2 in 2012 and 15-L1 in 2013 and then a FA. Not mandated to keep at all, if things go south...

[schlesinj]

Earlier this off season I grabbed a $5 s1 Strasburg for Lidge $16 s2 and J Zimmerman $8 s2 and then moved him to a team rebuilding for a $20 Kemp (FA after this season).

My opinion initially was to keep Strasburg and trade him mid season in a dump deal. I think you can do something similar with this deal. You save $5 on draft day and I assume you could use him for more of an upgrade mid season or keep him if things go the wrong way.

[Judge Jude]

Yeah, that's about what I'm thinking. At first it felt like I was punting the season - but not if I can get back more than I'd have just given up at some point. So I still have options re go-for-it vs rebuild.
If I were him I'd take my Halladay 44 instead. He's loaded on offensive profit, including Pagan 2, Tabata 5, Rasmus 10 (all 3 acquired from me last season), McGehee 10, KJohnson 14, etc. plus Bumgarner 5 and Hanrahan 3. He just needs to pick up studs like Halladay and spend his money. Of course, with a strong auction he could come out even further ahead - but why gamble with this sort of freeze list?

No deal yet..

[Judge Jude]

Ok, done - I deal JonSanchez 10-O for Strasburg 5-S1. Other guy going for it all, needed another SP and got one.

Now it looks like
Halladay 44, Hanson 10, Strasburg 5-DL
CRuiz 6
Victorino 29

5 for 94, options til Wed on Reyes 33, Drew 22, Soriano 16...

[schlesinj]

If I remember correctly, can you immediately match a player to Strasburg? Would that happen after the auction or after first FAAB?

[Judge Jude]

No FAAB. As soon as the auction is over, I can pick a replacement at 10-S2. He's not really tied to Strasburg anymore, either - I could cut that guy with one of six discretionary moves if he stinks, and the new guy would not be tied to Strasburg.

Seems like a good deal for both of us.