Judge Jude's 2011 keeper candidates

[Judge Jude]

Geesh, is it March already?

I can keep up to 11 in this NL-only 12-team traditional 5x5 league.

Thoughts?

listing is player, my price, HQ 2010 value
players priced at or below 2010 value in CAPS

Player..................My price...2010
Halladay .................44.........35
HANSON...................5*........19
JON SANCHEZ......... 10**......21
C RICHARD............... 8.........13
WOLF.................... 10.........11
LOWE.................... 13.........13
W Rodriguez.............26.........16
(and HOU SP Jordan Lyles at 5 if he makes the team, please don't yet!)

C C RUIZ.................. 2.......13
1B Loney................ 19.......17
1B-OF Nady............ 10.........6
3B Ar Ramirez...........32.......15
2B E Young Jr........... 5.........4
SS Reyes............... 33........23
SS S Drew............. 22........19
OF Victorino........... 29........24
OF A SORIANO........ 16........18
OF-1B CLee............ 27........17

* - (and out, or 10 in 2011 and 15 in 2012)
** - (and out, or 15 in 2011 and 20 in 2012)


- no RPs, that is correct
- lot of hitters who didn't turn earn their bucks in 2010, but...

[Gregg]

How is the player pool for 2011? How heavy will the inflation be?

[Judge Jude]

pretty standard stuff, inflation tends to be around 20-25 pct, nothing crazy. All farmhands are now 5 units upon recall, and that is slowly impacting the market after 3 yrs of it. I traded away Tabata, Stanton and others at that price last year, for instance.

Everyone can keep up to 11, so not the extreme of 5 keepers, or 15, either.

Most interested in who would keep any of the hitters beyond Ruiz, and which ones. Also which borderline SPs to stay or go. Maybe I should try to deal one for an OF.

[Gregg]

I only see 7 keeps here. Maybe 8 if you want to keep Halladay. And depending what is back in the auction I would give serious consideration in keeping him.

I would keep and extend Hanson. I would keep and not extend Sanchez. I would also keep Richard. I would not keep the other pitchers.

I keep Ruiz.

I keep Drew, Soriano, and maybe Victorino. I could see making a case for Reyes. If I kept Reyes I would not keep Victorino. Again it would depend on who is back in auction. If it were my team I most likely would keep at least one of them.

[Judge Jude]

Thanks, Gregg. We're on the same page mostly. Lowe and Wolf were pretty good last year, but they're not sexy and are liable to go for less. I may try to deal Richard.

No one would have questioned me extending Sandoval to 15 last year and Qualls to 7.
Well, that turned out to be 10 extra units I could have had in the auction.

Sanchez's peripherals are too weak for me to extend him, but a keep at 10 yes.
Hanson a tougher call - my old motto: If I go 10-15, then that's 25 units for two years. If I pay Hanson 5 this year, then have to bid more than 20 to get him back in 2012, that means he had a big year in 2011 - and that means keeping him so cheap this season might help me win a pennant.

Reyes, Drew, Victorino, Soriano - I'm looking for big springs and good health.

[the heat]

Hanson, keep & extend
Sanchez, keep, no extend
Richard, toss a coin
Ruiz, keep
Drew, keep
Soriano, keep
EY, if he's healthy & makes the team, keep

[Lucky]

Howie? Is that you? Que pasa?

[Gregg]

Thanks, Gregg. We're on the same page mostly. Lowe and Wolf were pretty good last year, but they're not sexy and are liable to go for less. I may try to deal Richard.

No one would have questioned me extending Sandoval to 15 last year and Qualls to 7.
Well, that turned out to be 10 extra units I could have had in the auction.

Sanchez's peripherals are too weak for me to extend him, but a keep at 10 yes.
Hanson a tougher call - my old motto: If I go 10-15, then that's 25 units for two years. If I pay Hanson 5 this year, then have to bid more than 20 to get him back in 2012, that means he had a big year in 2011 - and that means keeping him so cheap this season might help me win a pennant.

Reyes, Drew, Victorino, Soriano - I'm looking for big springs and good health.

Wolf and Lowe were serviceable last year, but I wouldn't count on them this year. I sure wouldn't want both of them on my team this year. Maybe bid Lowe as an end gamer if he is cheap enough. His Sept. numbers were more than good. Yet he is no spring chicken and I wouldn't get too excited for improvement.

Giving Hanson the increase is insurance to protect your profit. If he is worth $25 by years end, you will make $20 and be done. Next year you will then have to pay $25 plus any inflation. This breaks you even rather that making $15 dollars and then $10 that you would have made if you extended. We have to pay for some players to get counting stats. Hanson is one of those players that many will pay value or inflated value to get the stats. You have the opportunity to lock up profit and stats for the next two years. He could help you to two championships.

[Judge Jude]

Or he could get hurt, in which case I don't keep him at 15 in 2012 and therefore wasted 5 precious units in this year's auction. There is never a guarantee of profit. Qualls was an established, successful RP at only 2 units. No profit there, I assure you.


Every year many players without two years of established ability at a certain level - let's call them, hypothetically, "Sandovals" - regress significantly and unexpectedly, to most.

I'll weigh this one over the next several weeks....

[Gregg]

Or he could get hurt, in which case I don't keep him at 15 in 2012 and therefore wasted 5 precious units in this year's auction. There is never a guarantee of profit. Qualls was an established, successful RP at only 2 units. No profit there, I assure you.


Every year many players without two years of established ability at a certain level - let's call them, hypothetically, "Sandovals" - regress significantly and unexpectedly, to most.

I'll weigh this one over the next several weeks....

Yes, we differ in the "extend philosophy." I am more of a believer in extending than you seem to be. But hey it is what makes the game fun.

I may have to adopt your ways in my AL only league as I have too many high priced studs that I want to keep. The extension money buys me an extra solid player.

Good luck with whatever you choose.

[gcstomp]

Hanson, I think you have to go 10 in 2011 and 15 in 2012. By making this extension, you make a tradeable piece this year when your leagues teams start the rebuild dance. You will be able to land gems, in 3 months, for more than just the pure performance stats of whatever T Hanson does.

The Sandoval argument, that Hanson may collapse and you shorted yourself some profit, is ignoring the tradeable piece you create by investing some profit to get more. But yes, if Hanson collapses ala Sandoval, you will not get all those gems littering your path that you would if he performs well, or even if he performs meh, when you trade him in 3 months time.

[FBP]

Geesh, is it March already?

I can keep up to 11 in this NL-only 12-team traditional 5x5 league.

Thoughts?

listing is player, my price, HQ 2010 value
players priced at or below 2010 value in CAPS

Player..................My price...2010
Halladay .................44.........35
HANSON...................5*........19 Keep and extend
JON SANCHEZ......... 10**......21 keep
C RICHARD............... 8.........13 keep
WOLF.................... 10.........11
LOWE.................... 13.........13
W Rodriguez.............26.........16
(and HOU SP Jordan Lyles at 5 if he makes the team, please don't yet!)

C C RUIZ.................. 2.......13 Keep
1B Loney................ 19.......17
1B-OF Nady............ 10.........6
3B Ar Ramirez...........32.......15
2B E Young Jr........... 5.........4
SS Reyes............... 33........23
SS S Drew............. 22........19
OF Victorino........... 29........24
OF A SORIANO........ 16........18 keep
OF-1B CLee............ 27........17

* - (and out, or 10 in 2011 and 15 in 2012)
** - (and out, or 15 in 2011 and 20 in 2012)


- no RPs, that is correct
- lot of hitters who didn't turn earn their bucks in 2010, but...

my input above

[Judge Jude]

Finally getting down to serious auction crunching

Based on HQ's projections, the only top-10 SPs who will be available (setting aside No. 1 Halladay for a moment) are Nos. 2 and 3 - Lincecum and Cliff Lee. Lincecum has only been owned by a guy who drafted him as a farmhand a week after he was drafted by the Giants, and he won this owner a title last year.
Other issue is that the one nominated second might find a frenzy of bids - if you don't get that guy, your best hope is Billingsley or Kuroda (ok, Jimenez will be rated higher by non-HQ types, but the panic may ensue anyway).

Perception of the many scarred Mets-fan owners in the league that the Phillies are a super-team also likely drives up Lee's price (they'll expect him to win 25 games).

Adds to my temptation to keep Halladay if he stays at 100 pct all spring.
HQ's "top player"-style draft guide, which somewhat accounts for tendency in all leagues for top players to go for more than book value, has him at 41 for my auction parameters. And that's not even taking inflation fully into account..

[Gregg]

So the question becomes do you like a $44 Halladay more than a $35-$38 Lee? Probably. And if you keep him does that drive up the price of Lee and Lincecum? If there is a ton of money in the auction I think it would.

[Judge Jude]

Yes, I think as owners realize that they only have 2 uber-star pitchers to go after and not 3 (assuming someone doesn't actually think that Jimenez is close, since he isn't), it's more likely to get those owners edgy.

This is our 3rd year of having all farmhands be only 5 units upon arrival (stars can be kept at 5, 5, 10, and 15 for a four-year stint), and that should begin showing an impact in bidding by now...